Subjective probabilities and utility with event-dependent preferences

This article generalizes Savage's theory to include event-dependent preferences. The state space is partitioned into finitely many events. The induced preferences over consequences are assumed independent of the underlying states within, but not across, these events. This results in an additively separable representation of preferences over acts. The dependence of the preference relation over consequences on the events is represented by event-dependent mappings of the set of consequences onto itself. Given these mappings, the preferences on acts are represented by the expectation of event-dependent utilities on the consequences with respect to unique subjective probabilities on the states.Helpful discussions with David Schmeidler are gratefully acknowledged.     

Making ends meet: perceptions of poverty in Sweden

During the era after the Second World War, Sweden has built a welfare system based on labor market participation and income maintenance. Low unemployment and decent wages are supposed to guarantee people a labor market income or income maintenance, which in turn should provide a proper standard for everyone. However, a rapid increase in unemployment and economic problems have made the future of the Swedish welfare state more uncertain than ever. These circumstances have, among other things, led to the suggestion that Sweden should abandon the income maintenance policy and create a social policy system with the more limited ambition of guaranteeing everyone a minimum income. In that case, one central question must be answered: what constitutes a decent minimum income in today's Sweden? Where should we draw the poverty line under which people will not be forced to live? These questions are central in the current debate. The consensual poverty line method is used in this article to derive a poverty line relevant for today's Sweden. The results shows that more than every fifth household has an income below the consensual poverty line. That is, they have an income that most Swedes would argue is too low to make ends meet. The level of the consensual poverty line was compared with the National Board of Health and Welfare's guidelines for social assistance. The consensual poverty line was shown to be more generous to small households and the norm for social assistance was more generous to larger households. Finally, the expenditure for guaranteeing all Swedish household a minimum income equal to the consensual poverty line was estimated: more than SEK 25 billion per year. The results in the article casts serious doubt on the ability of the Swedish welfare state to secure a decent income to all citizens.     

教师社会幸福感现状及提升策略--基于全国33590名中小学教师的调查与分析

教师社会幸福感影响教师总体的职业幸福感。为揭示教师社会幸福感的整体状况及其在领导关系、同事关系、师生关系、家校关系、社会声誉等维度上的具体表现,在全国范围内,对东部、中部、西部、东北等4个地区的33590名中小学教师的社会幸福感现状进行问卷调查。调查结果显示:教师社会幸福感总体水平较高,但在性别、地区、教龄等方面存在差异。要进一步增强教师社会幸福感,应着力改善教师与领导关系和师生关系;满足教师的物质需求和发展需求,切实提升教师社会声誉;考虑个体差异,制定具有针对性的教师社会幸福感提升策略;改进教师职前教育和在职教育,提升教师获得社会幸福感的能力。     

知识缺失还是知识自负？知识水平对公众食品安全信心的影响研究

通过对中国10个城市成年受访者的调查,发现公众对当前食品安全问题的感知风险水平较高,反映其对食品安全形势较担忧,且对政府食品安全管理部门存在信任危机。不过公众的感知控制力较高,普遍认为自己有保障自身食品安全的能力,因此在日常的食品消费中仍然有较高的信心。研究证实中国公众在食品安全的知识层面存在着知识自负现象,公众自我评估的主观知识水平显著高于实际拥有的客观知识水平,且真正对公众食品安全信心产生影响的是公众的主观知识水平。这说明传统缺失模型所倡导的以科普、辟谣为主要形式的致力于教育公众、提升公众客观知识水平的行动能够取得的效果可能非常有限;而公众的主观知识水平和感知控制力的提升能有效提振公众的食品安全信心。     

Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities

This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).     

Financial manager's perception of rural household Economie Well-Being: Development and testing of a composite measure

An index of Perceived Economic Well-Being is constructed using factor analysis and tested for reliability and validity. The index is composed of (a) perceived income adequacy, and satisfaction with (b) current total household income, (c) amount of money your family is able to save, (d) amount of current debt, (e) level of consumption, (f) amount of household net worth, and (g) resources available to meet a financial emergency. The index is used in regression analysis. Results show that financial managers perceive economic well-being more favorably if they are more satisfied with resources and with the current level of living, view the present financial situation as better compared to 5 years ago, save on a regular basis for goal(s), and have a higher income. Financial managers who report more frequent financial problems, worry more about where money would come from to pay bills, and more frequently make only minimum payments on charge accounts perceive economic well-being less favorably.Preparation of this research was supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station. Data were collected in conjunction with the cooperative regional research project NC-182, Family Resource Utilization as a Factor in Determining Economic Well-Being of Rural Families. Cooperating states are Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota.He received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois in 1991 with Dr. Fitzsimmons as advisor. His current research interest is economic well-being.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois; her current research interests include gender roles, family financial management, and economic well-being.     

Feeling well while chronically ill or impaired: a multilevel study on the moderating role of employment and volunteering in Europe

People with a chronic condition tend to report poorer subjective well-being than people without. This article examines the dependence of the relationship on doing paid and voluntary work, and on macro-level labour market exclusion of people with and without chronic conditions. Data from the European Quality of Life Survey (2011–2012) of people aged between 25 and 65 are analysed using multilevel regression techniques. A chronic condition has a stronger negative effect on subjective well-being for persons who are economically inactive or who never engage in voluntary work. The importance of paid work, however, varies with national levels of labour exclusion.     

Profession and Workplace Expectations of Social Workers: Implications for Social Worker Subjective Well-Being

The expectations people have of social workers, and those that social workers hold of themselves, can negatively affect social worker's perceived well-being, via work stress and strain and other negative workplace experiences. This qualitative research presents findings that help to better understand what aspects of these expectations have the greatest impact on the well-being of a sample (n = 19) of social workers with reported low levels of workplace and profession satisfaction. Our data support a conceptual framework of social worker's expectations that relate to outcomes of practice, social worker roles, the perceived functioning by other health-related professionals, conflict in direct practice with social worker identity and having to work in adverse situations, as all contributing to the well-being of social workers. Findings are discussed in relation to social work practice and the role and function of professional associations and educational programmes in addressing these issues that emerge in practice.     

河南省幼儿园园长主观幸福感调查研究

为了解幼儿园园长的心理健康状况，对116名来自河南省18个地市的幼儿园园长进行了主观幸福感的问卷调查，结果表明：幼儿园园长的主观幸福感水平中等偏上；年龄、婚姻状况、收入、任职年限、任教园所性质、级别、规模、地理位置主效应显著。     

幼儿园教师幸福感调查分析——以河南安阳市幼儿园为例

通过对幼儿教师幸福感现状、影响因素及其关系进行调查分析，得出幼儿教师的幸福感水平一般；她们最在意家庭的温馨、身体的健康、精神生活的充实等；感到不幸福的主要因素有家长不理解、薪酬低等；感到幸福的主要因素有幼儿的天真、无邪、家长、领导的支持和肯定等;并且在幼儿园地域、级别、规模和发展机会、工作压力和收入满意度上存在显著差异。最后根据研究的结果提出了合理性的建议。