我国银行操作风险的分形特征

本文基于分形理论和经济弹性概念,在分析银行操作风险影响因素中引入GDP和CPI,给出了银行操作风险的弹性分维的定义,并计算了中美两国操作风险的弹性分维。中美操作风险损失数据分析结果表明,中美两国的操作风险在GDP和CPI作用下都显示出明显的多重分形特征。同时根据分维,可以得到我国数据收集的阈值,从而能够降低采集数据的难度,有利于商业银行的宏观分析和监管。本文并对模型的预测功能进行了初步探讨,对于估计我国银行操作风险的预期损失提供了进一步研究的新思路。     

Analysis on China's Labor Supply and Demand Trend for a Long-term

The paper take Leslie method to forecast China's total population and its age distribution structure from 2015 to 2050,and then predict the total labor supply of the working-age population,estimate the total demand for labor according to the employment elasticity of the economic growth,calculated the gap between labor supply and demand.The results show that both the labor supply and demand showed a decreasing trend,but the supply reduced faster than demand,after 2015,the labor market appears shortage,the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time and have a tendency to expand.Facing of the new situation and new problems of the labor market,we recommend some corresponding policy.     

基于弹性理念的苏州流动摊贩区布局模式和规划对策研究

流动摊贩区问题成为我国越来越多城市发展中久治不愈的顽疾,而与之有关的处理方法往往太过简单生硬,由此而引发了许多值得深思的现实问题。笔者从规划的角度出发,以弹性理念为指导,实地调研了苏州5大城区流动摊贩区状况,分别从流动摊贩区的经营特征、活动特征、分布形态特征对其进行分析,探寻其在区域内的时空分布规律,旨在研究出一套行之有效的布局模式和规划对策,为城市处理流动摊贩区问题提供一种新的思路和借鉴。     

基于弹性定额理论的建筑能耗定额方法研究

论述了能耗定额的概念及意义,通过对能耗定额方法的研究,可以促进建筑的合理用能,能进一步推动我国节能减排事业的发展。分析了国内目前的几种能耗定额方法,提出了基于弹性定额理论的能耗定额方法,该方法能够鼓励能耗的降低,抑制能耗的增加;弹性能耗定额理论简单明了,易于国家调控政策的实施。     

1991-2008年中国贸易生态足迹的动态测度与分析

运用生态足迹法对1991-2008年中国的贸易生态足迹进行了测度。结果表明:1991-1994年中国的贸易生态足迹为盈余,出口贸易携带的生态足迹大于进口;1995年(1998年除外)之后,中国的贸易生态足迹为赤字,出口贸易携带的生态足迹小于进口;进出口贸易的生态足迹在波动中均有增长,贸易生态足迹弹性系数起伏较大。     

我国高等教育层次结构与经济发展适应性分析

为了促进层次结构优化以适应社会经济发展,根据1986-2008年高等教育层次结构相关数据,基于加权就业弹性、协整模型和误差修正模型,从高等教育层次结构与产业结构的适合性以及层次结构对有效经济增长的促进作用两个方面定量分析了高等教育层次结构与经济发展的适应性。认为,层次结构总体上适应经济发展需求,但在产业协调、长期均衡和短期调整等方面存在不足,应从生态结构和高等职业教育体系等方面进行优化。     

电信需求价格弹性研究

探讨了我国电信资费调整后研究需求价格弹性的基本原理、基本思路和参数选择;对需求价格弹性系数的计算结果和结论进行了实证分析,并提出了旨在促进我国电信资费改革的建议。     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE STOCHASTIC GROWTH RATE: THREE EXTENSIONS†

The perturbation analysis of population growth rate plays an important role in population biology. The sensitivity and/or elasticity (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate to changes in the vital rates are regularly used (i) to predict the effects of environmental perturbations, (ii) to characterize selection gradients on life‐history traits, (iii) to evaluate management tactics, (iv) to analyse life table response experiments, and (v) to calculate the sampling variance in population growth rate. In a stochastic environment, population growth is described by the stochastic growth rate, which gives, with probability 1, the asymptotic time‐averaged growth rate of any realization. Tuljapurkar derived the sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate to changes in the entries of the stochastic matrices. This paper extends his result to cover three cases, each of which has arisen recently in applications. The first gives the response of the stochastic growth rate to environment‐specific perturbations, applied only in a specified subset of the possible environments. The second gives the sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate to changes in lower‐level parameters. The third applies to stochastic seasonal models, in which the projection matrix for each year is a periodic product of matrices describing seasonal transitions. In this case interest focuses on the sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate to changes in the entries of the seasonal matrices, not entries in the annual matrices. The paper describes examples of problems where each of these extensions is needed, and the algorithms for each of the new calculations.     

价格竞争原理与动态价格战略

近些年来 ,我国很多行业的价格战愈演愈烈 ,这一方面反映了这些行业中市场竞争的激烈 ;另一方面 ,产生这种现象也与一些企业不了解价格竞争原理与策略有关。文章旨在介绍价格竞争的基本原理与相关的研究成果 ,以期为企业价格决策提供一些参考。研究表明 :商品的价格不仅是价值的货币表现和取决于市场的供求关系 ,以及受质量和心理因素的影响 ,而且与企业的目标、采取的战略、相对竞争地位和产品市场特性有密切的联系。因此 ,企业必须制定自己的动态价格战略     

确定任意投入-产出组合规模弹性的DEA模型

本文探讨数据包络分析(DEA)对规模收益的定量分析.过去的研究文献只涉及全输入组合对全输出组合的产出弹性.本文通过建立一般模型来计算任意输入组合对任意输出组合的产出弹性,从而可以确定在产出弹性中占主导地位的最佳投入组合.按照最佳投入组合来扩展规模可避免盲目投资和浪费资源,达到以最小投入获取最大产出的效用.