A new aging concept derived from the increasing convex ordering

In this paper, a comparison between the life distribution of a new unit with that of a used unit in the increasing convex order is made leading to a new class of life distributions which we call “new better than used in convex ordering of second order”. This class includes as subclasses the NBU and the NBUC and is a subclass of the NBUCA class. Preservation properties under convolution, random maxima, mixing and formation of coherent structures are established. Stochastic comparisons of the excess lifetime when the inter-arrival times belong to the NBUC(2) class are developed. Some applications of Poisson shock models and a test of exponentiality against NBUC(2) alternative are presented.     

Modern likelihood inference for the maximum/minimum of a bivariate normal vector

ABSTRACT

We consider the use of modern likelihood asymptotics in the construction of confidence intervals for the parameter which determines the skewness of the distribution of the maximum/minimum of an exchangeable bivariate normal random vector. Simulation studies were conducted to investigate the accuracy of the proposed methods and to compare them to available alternatives. Accuracy is evaluated in terms of both coverage probability and expected length of the interval. We furthermore illustrate the suitability of our proposals by means of two data sets, consisting of, respectively, measurements taken on the brains of 10 mono-zygotic twins and measurements of mineral content of bones in the dominant and non-dominant arms for 25 elderly women.     

现代社会秩序的政治建构:基于信任的民主

现代社会秩序的政治建构受制于民主和信任建设中的交织关系,体现为如何化解委托代理中的"逆向选择"和"道德风险"。这促使政治思想家们不断探索解决路径,形成了维持社会秩序的霍布斯模式、洛克—熊彼特模式、托克维尔—帕特南模式以及蒂利模式等。基于信任的民主不仅需要加强关于政府官员的能力和素质的制度化建设,还需要培育社会资本和加强公民共同体建设,更需要强化政府和民间互动的策略性和有效性,促发信赖确证、条件满足和风险化解,以维护社会秩序。     

Aging and ordering properties of multivariate lifetimes with Archimedean dependence structures

This paper further studies monotone aging properties of the multivariate random lifetime. We revise the sufficient condition for the negative monotone aging property in terms of the multivariate usual stochastic order in Theorem 3.3 of Rezapour et al. (2013) Rezapour, M., Alamatsaz, M.H., Pellerey, F. (2013). Multivariate aging with Archimedean dependence structures in high dimensions. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 42:2056–2070.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and derive the condition sufficient to the multivariate monotone aging properties in terms of the upper orthant order. Also we study the upper orthant order of multivariate residual lifetimes and inactivity times from populations sharing a common Archimedean survival copula and Archimedean survival copula, respectively. Two simple applications in multivariate stress-strength and frailty models are presented as well.     

Embodied versus Disembodied Information: How Online Artifacts Influence Offline Interpersonal Interactions

This article examines how the sheer volume of personal information recorded and searchable online (online artifacts) has transformed the situated activity system central to Goffman's dramaturgical theories. In‐depth interviews reveal that individuals believe disembodied information based on online artifacts is a more accurate representation of others than embodied information from spatially and temporally bounded face‐to‐face (FTF) processes because they represent how others have behaved over time and are attested by their online contacts. However, the n‐adic structure of online interaction leads to mismatched expectations about whether disembodied information is taken into account during FTF encounters, and consequently can result in embarrassment.     

Bootstrap order selection for SETAR models

In this paper, we investigate the selecting performances of a bootstrapped version of the Akaike information criterion for nonlinear self-exciting threshold autoregressive-type data generating processes. Empirical results will be obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. The quality of our method is assessed by comparison with its non-bootstrap counterpart and through a novel procedure based on artificial neural networks.     

Estimation of weibull location

A simulation study was carried out to compare the performances of two different simple estimators of the location parameter for a three-parameter Weibull distribution Both Estimators have been suggested by recent paper in the literature. Bras and mean square error are examined for many different sample-size and shape-parameter-value combinations. Strong evidence of the domination of one estimator over the other is found.     

连续物料订单分拣完全-并行限定(k=1)轮询控制机理

中国是粮食生产大国和人口大国，粮食问题对于我国经济社会的发展具有举足轻重的影响。现有粮食供应链"层层批发"的流通体制不能满足消费者个性化需求。所以，本文基于客户的个性化需求，应用轮询系统理论来研究面粉、大米等粮食连续物料的订单分拣自动化控制机理。本文根据实际业务需求设定普通订单、优先订单，对优先订单的分拣实行完全服务控制策略，对普通订单分拣实行限定（k=1）服务控制策略，建立完全-并行限定（k=1）的二级优先级订单分拣轮询控制系统模型，确保优先业务订单顾客得到更优质服务，同时保证订单分拣系统的公平性。采用嵌入式Markov链、多维概率母函数和拉式变换求解理论模型，并通过数值计算分析，精确求解其一阶系统特性、二阶系统特性等关键性能参数，从而深入研究连续物料订单分拣的控制机理。     

《一报还一报》的伦理混乱与秩序重构中的悲喜命运转向

莎士比亚《一报还一报》一剧以克劳狄奥与朱丽叶的婚前私通为主要伦理线,展示了维也纳法治下个人私通和公共淫乱两类人的跌宕命运,着重探讨了维也纳城的伦理混乱,以及在主政者的伦理秩序重构中个人私通者由悲而喜和公共淫乱者由喜而悲的命运转向,旨在指出在西方前现代社会中,对基督教伦理规范的认同与否决定着个人的命运转向。