建国以来中共四川省委领导民生建设的历史考察及经验启示

四川自解放以来,中共四川省委领导全省民生建设取得了巨大的成就,留下了宝贵的经验,尤其是十一届三中全会后,四川省委领导的民生建设飞速发展,成效显著。成功的经验从多方面启示着四川当前的民生建设。     

清朝咸同年间滇东南回民捍卫民族生存斗争的性质辨析——对马德新、马如龙的重新评价

清代咸同年间爆发的滇东南回民反对清政府的抗暴自卫斗争,具有维护民族生存自立的性质,与滇西杜文秀领导的各族反清大起义不同,故对其领导人马德新、马如龙不能以简单的投降、叛徒论之,而应给予客观评价。     

Improving the Efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen Estimator: the Naive Local Constant Estimator

Abstract.  The Nelson–Aalen estimator is well known to be an asymptotically efficient estimator of the cumulative hazard function, see Andersen et al. ( Statistical models based on counting processes , Springer-Verlag, New York, 1993) among many others. In this paper, we show that the efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen estimator can be considerably improved by using more information in the estimation process than the traditional Nelson–Aalen estimator uses. While our approach results in a biased estimator, the variance improvement is substantial. By optimizing the balance between the bias loss and the variance improvement, we obtain results on the efficiency gain. Several examples for known failure time distributions are used to illustrate these ideas.     

The Use of Lay Assessors

This paper reports on some findings from a research study conductedby the authors for the Commission for Social Care Inspection.It examines the reasons for the involvement of lay assessorsand perceptions of the effectiveness of lay assessors in specificregulatory functions.     

食品安检专业开设动物病理学课程的改革与探索

本文从专业现状及教学中存在的问题,对食品安检专业开设动物病理学课程的教学改革相关问题进行阐述,为全面培养高素质的食品安检专业人才提供经验。     

Quality Management in Multi‐Level Supply Chains with Outsourced Manufacturing

Outsourcing stretches supply chains longer with added contract manufacturers responsible for the manufacturing of parts and final products. Should a firm change its quality management approach as its supply chain becomes longer with outsourced manufacturing? This paper studies a brand owner's optimal choice between two commonly used quality management approaches: an inspection‐based approach and an external failure‐based approach, in two supply chains – a dyadic supply chain and a multi‐level supply chain where the brand owner outsources manufacturing to an independent contract manufacturer. Our study finds that the brand owner's optimal choice between the two quality management approaches could be opposite in the two supply chains. Specifically, we show that if agency costs exist between the contract manufacturer and the brand owner, the brand owner may prefer an inspection‐based approach in the multi‐level supply chain in contrast to preferring an external failure‐based approach in the dyadic supply chain. In particular, inspections can be effective for the brand owner to limit the manufacturer's profit by excluding defective finished products and components, which in turn reduce agency costs in the multi‐level supply chain. Hence, the efficiency of an inspection‐based approach relative to an external failure‐based approach can be higher in the multi‐level supply chain as compared to the dyadic one. Our findings suggest that firms should adjust to changes in supply chain structures and re‐evaluate the efficiencies of different quality management approaches accordingly.     

The Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariables

In this paper the Jackknife estimate of covariance of two Kaplan–Meier integrals with covariates is introduced. Its strong consistency is established under mild conditions. Several applications of the estimator are discussed.     

Expanded renal transplantation: a competing risk model approach

Multi-state models (MSMs) are useful to analyze survival data when, besides the event of main interest, one or more intermediate states of the individual are identified. These models take the several existing states and the possible transitions among them into account. At the same time, covariate effects on each transition intensity may be investigated separately and, therefore, MSMs are more flexible than the standard Cox proportional hazards model. In this work, we use MSMs to investigate the impact of the quality of a transplanted kidney for a group of patients at the Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias. Specifically, we use an illness-death model to study the evolution of patients with kidney disease who received a renal transplant after a dialysis period. The intermediate state is defined as the failure of the received organ, while the terminating state is the death of the patient. In order to increase the potential number of organs available for transplant, the standards of quality for the transplanted kidneys were relaxed (the new criteria are labeled expanded criteria), and these ‘expanded kidneys’ were transplanted in appropriate candidates (older patients, with higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus). Results suggest that the expanded kidneys have a minor effect on survival, while both the kidney mortality and the risk of death increase with the patient's age and the serum creatinine and serum hemoglobin levels.     

Time to Diagnosis: Accounting for Differential Endpoint Follow-up in Multi-Cohort Studies

Cox regression is widely used to analyze discrete survival time data. Differential endpoint follow-up across sub-cohorts where distribution of a covariate varies may cause typical estimators to be biased or inefficient. We demonstrate that with Cardiovascular Health Study data for incident type 2 diabetes. Two cohorts with extremely different race distribution have differential follow-up for fasting glucose levels. We study various scenarios of Cox regression. We suggest an alternative approach, Poisson generalized estimating equations with an offset to accommodate the differential follow-up. We use simulations to contrast the methods.