A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

Migrant women’s economic success in Russia: objective reality and subjective assessment

This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the outcomes of labour migration by focusing on the effects of migrant legal status on the economic and perceptual measures of migration success. To study the effects of legal status, we use a sample of Central Asian migrant women who work in Russia and of their native counterparts who occupy the same positions on the labour market. Similar to the studies in the developed settings, we find that a temporary legal status is associated with an earnings penalty and that permanent legal status corrects this earning disparity. We also find that both temporary and permanent migrant status is positively associated with perceptions of pay inequality but that, irrespective of these perceptions, both types of migrants are more likely to be satisfied with their jobs than natives. We interpret these findings within the legal and social context of migrant economic incorporation in Russia and relate them to the findings from other migrant-receiving settings.     

主观感知还是客观责任? ——中国农民工作回报期望影响因素研究

理清农民工作回报期望的影响因素进而精准施策,对于破解城乡发展不平衡和满足农民对美好生活的向往意义重大。利用Multinomial Logistic模型和CGSS2015相关数据的实证研究结论发现:以主观社会经济地位和外出务工经历为代表的主观感知性因素是影响农民工作回报期望的关键,而以养老责任和未成年子女数量为代表的客观责任因素的影响则不显著。同时,受教育程度也是影响农民工作回报期望的重要因素,受教育程度为初中及以下的农民对生理回报和安全回报有更强烈的诉求。     

多边贸易体制下中国发展中国家地位问题研究——基于历史、现实与规范的多维考察

当前,发展中国家地位问题受到国际社会的高度关注,已成为世界贸易组织改革中的主要讨论议题。然而,现行世界贸易组织多边规则体系中并没有关于“发展中国家地位”的清晰界定,“自我认定”的方式正遭受一些国家的挑战。发展中国家地位和特殊与差别待遇条款密切相关,世界贸易组织规则体系中涵盖的155项特殊与差别待遇条款为发展中国家的国内政策提供了一定的灵活性,尽管多数为“最佳努力条款”。中国的发展中国家地位兼具身份和契约的双重属性,部分发达国家迫使中国放弃发展中国家地位,本质上旨在继续维持其在国际经济秩序中的主导地位。虽然中国的发展正处于“强起来”的第三阶段,但仍须坚持发展中国家地位不动摇。放弃发展中国家地位并不等于将获得发达国家的自动接纳,相反,还会影响到在其他国际组织和国际事务中的角色扮演,中国的发展离不开广大发展中国家的支持。当然,坚持发展中国家地位并不等于需要和其他发展中成员享受完全一致的差别待遇,在后续谈判中,中国可以保持一定的灵活性。在国际治理中,中国也将继续为国际社会的发展提供解决方案,树立负责任大国形象。     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

Collective and Elective Ethnicity: Caste Among Urban Muslims in India

This article explores how the significance of ethnic identity can vary within a stable population, using caste among Muslims in Hyderabad, India as a case study. While some Hyderabadi Muslims are still embedded in ethnic networks, most now experience ethnicity as elective and do not rely on a corporate caste group for their social connections. This reflects a decline in the value of caste identities, which no longer provide economic or political resources. Increasingly, Muslims seek status through education, profession, or income. Thus, most Muslims in Hyderabad experience caste membership, identity, and networks in a weakened or attenuated way.     

从"唐人选唐诗"看王昌龄在唐代诗坛地位的变迁

“唐人选唐诗”录王昌龄诗歌作品的情况反映出唐代不同时期人们对王昌龄诗歌接受态度及其在唐代诗坛地位的升降变迁。总体而言 ,昌龄因其五言古诗对盛唐诗风的开拓之功而受到当时选家普遍重视 ,有“诗家夫子”之称 ,中唐以后选家则独重昌龄七言绝句 ,虽以“七绝圣手”誉之 ,但其诗歌地位已非显著。文章同时指出 ,作为古代诗歌批评的一种特殊形态 ,唐诗选本所蕴含的诗学价值应受到重视 ,成为唐诗学研究的一个方向     

试论我国新闻学的学科地位及学科发展

新闻学有自己的理论内涵和科学品质,也有自己的学术积累和发展基础,其学科地位应得到 充分肯定。新闻学不仅要研究新闻事业史、新闻理论、新闻业务,也应研究媒介经济、传媒业经营与管理。为 适应新世纪新闻事业和学科发展的需要,应努力构建有中国特色社会主义新闻学理论体系。     

浅析建筑市场监理运行现状与对策

文章透析了监理单位的外部管理现状 ,内部运行机制及监理业务的竞争环境 ,并提出了相应的对策与建议     

浅谈确保会计信息的真实性

论述了我国会计制度对会计信息的质量要求 ,并分析了会计信息失真的现象 ,提出应采取相应的对策以确保会计信息的真实性。主要措施包括 :(1)规范经营者的行为 ;(2 )提高会计人员的素质及地位 ;(3 )建立健全监管机制 ;(4)运用科学技术方法保证会计数据准确