Unified multivariate survival model with a surviving fraction: an application to a Brazilian customer churn data

In this paper we propose a new lifetime model for multivariate survival data in presence of surviving fractions and examine some of its properties. Its genesis is based on situations in which there are m types of unobservable competing causes, where each cause is related to a time of occurrence of an event of interest. Our model is a multivariate extension of the univariate survival cure rate model proposed by Rodrigues et al. [37 J. Rodrigues, V.G. Cancho, M. de Castro, and F. Louzada-Neto, On the unification of long-term survival models, Statist. Probab. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 753–759. doi: 10.1016/j.spl.2008.10.029[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. The inferential approach exploits the maximum likelihood tools. We perform a simulation study in order to verify the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. The simulation study also focus on size and power of the likelihood ratio test. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set on customer churn data.     

Influence diagnostics for the Weibull-Negative-Binomial regression model with cure rate under latent failure causes

In this paper, we propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Negative Binomial distribution and the time to event follows a Weibull distribution. Indeed, we introduce the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) distribution, which can be used in order to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing and some non-monotonous shaped. Another advantage of the proposed model is that it has some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Moreover, the proposed model includes as special cases some of the well-know cure rate models discussed in the literature. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a WNB model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a medical data.     

浅析国际非政府组织在国际法中的地位

随着全球化的发展,国际非政府组织的影响力越来越大,但对于其在国际法上的地位问题还存在着争议.本文通过对国际非政府组织的定义、发展历程和兴起原因、国际法上的地位三个方面进行分析,认为国际非政府组织在一定范围和条件是可以成为国际法主体的,应给予这些国际非政府组织国际法中的地位.     

“婚变”的背后——浅析《墙头马上》中的悲剧因素

一直以来人们都认为《墙头马上》为一部爱情喜剧,通过对此剧中的悲剧性因素悲剧性行动和悲剧性环境的分析,认为此剧并不是仅仅停留在爱情喜剧的层面,而是一部具有社会性婚姻问题的戏剧.     

扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件

中间阶层实质上是一个经济地位、政治地位和社会地位等各方面介于上层精英阶层和下层大众阶层之间的、具有中等社会经济地位的阶层和群体的集合.扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件.通过运用财政税收政策,大力发展教育和科技,鼓励创业,建立顺畅的社会流动机制等方式壮大我国的中间阶层对促进构建社会主义和谐社会有重要的作用.     

Is giving or receiving psychologically beneficial to older mothers in South Korea? Importance of marital status

In order to understand intergenerational financial transfers and subjective well-being for older mothers, this study argues that marital status is an important factor to be considered. Using the first wave of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA), this study finds that married older mothers report higher levels of life satisfaction when they provide economic support but widowed older mothers feel higher levels of life satisfaction when they receive economic support. Also, regular or irregular financial support appears to also matter in the associations between financial support and life satisfaction. These findings suggest that married and widowed older mothers have different viewpoints about the parent-children relationship.     

Popularity breeds contempt: The evolution of reputational dislike relations and friendships in high school

In this study, we examined the dynamics of the perception of “dislike” ties (reputational dislike) among adolescents within the contexts of friendship, perceived popularity, substance use, and Facebook use. Survey data were collected from a longitudinal sample of 238 adolescents from the 11th and 12th grades in one California high school. We estimated stochastic actor-based network dynamic models, using reports of reputational dislike, friendships, and perceived popularity, to identify factors associated with the maintenance and generation reputational dislike ties. The results showed that high-status adolescents and more frequent Facebook users tended to become perceived as or stay disliked by their peers over time. There was a tendency for friendships to promote the creation and maintenance of reputational disliking but not vice versa. Adolescents tended to perceive others as disliked when their friends also perceived them as disliked. There was no evidence that either cigarette smoking or drinking alcohol affected reputational dislike dynamics. This study highlights the important role that the hierarchical peer system, online peer context, and friendships play in driving information diffusion of negative peer relations among adolescents.     

沉樱小说中女性婚恋心理的观察与体验

20世纪30年代初的女作家沉樱从自身的婚恋生活经验出发，对五四时期现代家庭生活作出新的体察和揭示，客观地描摹出一些新女性在满怀希望走进婚恋生活后内心所感受的空寂与焦虑，同时也大胆地表现出这些女性对于自我欲望的发现与表述。     

我国网络新闻传播专业教育现状的思考

本文从当前我国网络新闻传播专业教育的现状入手，论析现阶段我国网络新闻传播专业教育的相关问题。