我国统一货币政策调控的区域效应非对称性分析

由于人民币升值的压力和我国国际收支的双顺差,外国资产迅速扩张,外汇占款成了我国基础货币的主要投放渠道。由于各区域的经济对外开放程度存在差异,统一的货币政策在不同区域的效应可能存在差异。通过对我国2004年第1季度至2011年第2季度央行统一的货币政策操作在不同区域的政策效应的非对称性进行了理论分析和实证检验,认为对东中西部应分别采用不同的货币政策。     

校企合作构建第二课堂的实施效果分析及评价——基于圣奥班(家具设计专业)毕业生跟踪问卷的调查

南京林业大学与浙江圣奥(木业)集团联合创建的“圣奥班”是校企合作联合培养创新型家具设计工程专业人才的成功平台之一.基于圣奥班毕业生的问卷调查,对学生进班动机与目标定位、比较优势、获得的帮助、专业能力提升,以及今后办班建议等方面内容进行了分析.统计结果表明,学校和企业共同搭建的圣奥班平台对学生创新意识,专业能力、就业竞争力等诸多方面都有显著的提升.     

新农合对四川藏区的减贫效应分析

The New Rural Cooperative Medi-cal System ( hereafter NRCMS) in Tibetan areas of Sichuan was started in Wenchuan in 2005 , and by 2008 covered all of the province’s Tibetan areas. This paper studies the effects of the NRCMS on im-proving the health of and alleviating poverty for farmers and herdsmen in Tibetan area of Sichuan. Most parts of the Tibetan areas of Sichuan are located in high altitude districts. Thirty two coun-ties of these areas are classified as “National Pov-erty Counties”. Poverty and disease go hand in hand in these regions. Kashin-Beck disease and hydatid disease are the major endemics in the pas-toral and agro-pastoral areas of Sichuan. Endemic, infectious and chronic diseases are widespread in Sichuan’s Tibetan areas. More than 70% of pa-tients are workers from 20 to 60 years old. Disea-ses are more prevalent in women than in men. Kashin-Beck disease and hydatid disease are cur-rently incurable. Patients suffer from health prob-lems, which leads to a decrease in their income and the heavy burden of medical expenses. The new rural cooperative medical system alleviates the negative effects of farmers’ falling into, or back in-to poverty due to disease. However, the existing medical compensation mechanism is not sufficient to solve the problem. The greatest impact of NRCMS on the farmers and herdsmen in Sichuan’s Tibetan areas is that the system has gradually changed local people’s medi-cal behavior, as well as their underlying ideas a-bout medicine: they begin to believe in hospitals. In particular, more pregnant women are choosing to give birth in hospitals, which reduces the rate of infant mortality and postpartum diseases, and im-proves the health of women. Since the full coverage of the NRCMS in 2008 , the number of people participating in the system has reached the overall average level of Si-chuan province. By analyzing the data before and after the implementation of this system, and meas-uring the impact of the system on people’s health, it can be found that the NRCMS’s role in serving the vulnerable population, such as the elderly and infant children, is more marked. Since the implementation of the NRCMS, all administrative villages in Sichuan Tibetan areas have established village clinics, which solved the problem of a shortage of medicines and doctors in those areas. Farmers and herdsmen have conven-ient access to medical treatment, enhancing the ac-cessibility of medical service. After the implemen-tation of the NRCMS, the health of the elderly population in rural areas has improved. Infant mor-tality rates have dramatically fallen. The implementation of the NRCMS improved the medical service capacity of township hospitals and village clinics. And the NRCMS has brought the township hospitals and village clinics into its scope of compensation, which greatly promotes the utilization of primary medical services in Tibetan areas. The poverty reduction effect of the NRCMS can be analyzed from two aspects:Firstly, the im-
provement in health leads to increased income, be-cause good health can promote labor productivity. Meanwhile, the increase in income will in turn im-prove the overall level of health. Secondly, the in-patient and outpatient compensation rate is raised year by year, which reduces the medical fees of farmers, and prevents them from falling back into poverty.     

小学校长服务型领导对教师知识分享行为的影响研究

以山东省248名小学教师为有效样本，探讨了服务型领导、教师同事信任、情感承诺和教师知识分享行为之间的关系。研究结果显示：服务型领导与教师知识分享行为显著相关；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与知识分享行为之间的关系；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与情感承诺之间的关系；情感承诺对服务型领导与知识分享行为关系的中介作用不显著。     

微信公众号影响力指数建构与量化评估

作为被广泛使用的社交媒体，微信已经成为热点事件和网络舆情的重要策源地，科学准确评估微信公众号的影响力对于明晰微信信息传播特点，深入挖掘微信传播潜力，进一步规范和指导微信平台的传播行为具有较大的理论和实践意义。在对既有关于微信公众号影响力研究进行梳理和评价的基础上，基于传播效果测量的设计，坚持以受众为中心、由浅入深多层次考察准则，运用德尔菲法和层次分析法建构一套微信公众号影响力指标体系。该指标体系由4个一级指标和9个二级指标构成，并运用线性合成法合成微信公众号影响力指数。     

基于Hawkes过程中美股市大幅波动互激效应的研究

近年来，由于中美经济联系日趋紧密，中美股票市场大幅波动的互激效应明显增强。本文考虑中美股市时差和法定节假日差异等因素，运用标值Hawkes过程对2006-2017年CSI300和S&P500大幅波动收益率数据进行建模，结果表明：（1）中美股市大幅波动互激效应存在不对称性，美股市场大幅波动对中国股市的互激效应更强；（2）中美股市大幅波动的幅度对互激效应不存在显著影响；（3）中美股票市场对于大幅波动互激效应的消化速度存在差异，中国股票市场消化美股大幅波动互激效应的速度较快。本研究对金融市场监管者和投资者均有一定意义。     

An investigation of the endowment effect in the context of a college housing lottery

The endowment effect was examined in a two-part study in the context of a college housing lottery. Students who were awarded their first choice of residence hall were asked the lowest dollar amount they would be willing to accept (WTA) to give up their first choice hall whereas students who were denied their first choice were asked the highest dollar amount they would be willing to pay (WTP) to obtain their first choice. Results from the initial assessment showed the presence of the endowment effect regarding students’ valuation of their first choice residence hall immediately after the housing lottery (i.e., WTA price was significantly higher than WTP price). The follow-up surveyed participants from the initial assessment who responded when contacted a second time after they had experienced two months of life in the residence hall they were awarded in the lottery. Results from the follow-up showed that the endowment effect was still present after experiencing life in the residence hall. Moreover, further analyses revealed that the endowment effect was, in fact, enhanced after the living experience. These findings demonstrate that within the context of a housing lottery, a highly-valued commodity, long-term experiences substantially increase the magnitude of the endowment effect, even when controlling for other factors that have been shown to impact this effect.     

A new confidence interval in errors-in-variables model with known error variance

This paper considers constructing a new confidence interval for the slope parameter in the structural errors-in-variables model with known error variance associated with the regressors. Existing confidence intervals are so severely affected by Gleser–Hwang effect that they are subject to have poor empirical coverage probabilities and unsatisfactory lengths. Moreover, these problems get worse with decreasing reliability ratio which also result in more frequent absence of some existing intervals. To ease these issues, this paper presents a fiducial generalized confidence interval which maintains the correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results show that this fiducial interval is slightly conservative while often having average length comparable or shorter than the other methods. Finally, we illustrate these confidence intervals with two real data examples, and in the second example some existing intervals do not exist.     

探析“隧道效应”在社会治理中的应用

当前在我国经济社会发展不平衡的背景下,社会治理已经并将长期面临新的形势和新的挑战。在这些挑战和问题面前,我们如何通过对我国社会治理状况的深入分析,深化对社会管理规律和特点的认识,不断地进行理论创新,找到建设中国特色社会治理体系应遵循的基本原则,探索适合我国国情的社会治理体制机制,提高社会治理的能力和水平。本文从一个经济学的概念——"隧道效应"出发,将其引入到社会治理的研究中来,分析"隧道效应"发生背后的文化逻辑,并从社会的角度来分析这种正的隧道效应是否可以持续及其政策建议。     

Effects of the social dominance orientation on environmental attitudes of Chilean university students / Efectos de la orientación a la dominancia social sobre las actitudes ambientales de universitarios chilenos

By adopting a multidimensional approach to environmental attitudes (apathy, anthropocentrism, connectedness and emotional affinity with nature), this study explores the relationships between these dimensions, social dominance orientation (SDO) and political orientation. Two hundred and sixty-two Chilean university students filled out an ad hoc online questionnaire. Two confirmatory factorial analyses showed the four typologies of environmental attitudes and the two factors for SDO, which are labelled group dominance and opposition to equality. Through hierarchical regressions, group dominance showed higher explanatory power of environmental attitudes than political orientation. Furthermore, using the bootstrap procedure we showed that group dominance mediated between political orientation and attitudes of apathy, anthropocentrism and connectedness, while opposition to equality mediated between apathy and emotional affinity. We conclude that SDO is an important variable for measuring political ideology while also providing new nuances when analysing the relationships with environmental attitudes.