煤矿安全ERP系统的研究与开发

本文对实现CSERP系统进行了初步的探讨,引入科学的管理方法,将安全管理深入到作业层次,便于及时发现安全管理的薄弱环节。同时,对煤矿各种安全问题进行预警和监控以及对安全度的最佳成本进行测算等,为煤矿安全管理及决策提供指导。     

小波神经网络应用于电子政务信息系统安全风险评估

针对电子政务信息系统风险评估的复杂性和不确定性,作者提出了小波神经网络评估方法,建立了小波神经网络评估模型,最后采用Matlab7.1工具进行了仿真实验,并分别从网络的收敛速度、训练精度和训练效果上与BP神经网络算法作了对比。结果证实该方法有效克服了传统方法中人为分配权重带来的主观性,使评价结果更科学,更合理。     

农村产权抵押物变现的现实困境与破解对策

农村产权抵押融资是盘活农村“沉睡资产”的重要渠道，也是增加农民财产收入的重要途径，而产权抵押物变现难是目前制约我国农村产权抵押融资健康发展的主要因素之一。由于我国农村产权流转存在刚性制度约束、农村产权的有效市场需求和流动性不足及其确权成本高且操作难，导致农村产权抵押物的收储与管理难、价值发现难、价值评估难和价值变现难。应完善农村产权抵押物变现的法律支撑体系，优化政府主导的宏观调控机制，构建包括资产管理中心、信息中心、交易中心、价值评估中心的农村产权交易市场体系，并完善农村产权确权颁证制度和农村社会保障制度等相关配套措施，以有效破解农村产权抵押物变现难困境，推动农村产权抵押融资发展。     

Model Averaging Using Fractional Polynomials to Estimate a Safe Level of Exposure

Quantitative risk assessment involves the determination of a safe level of exposure. Recent techniques use the estimated dose-response curve to estimate such a safe dose level. Although such methods have attractive features, a low-dose extrapolation is highly dependent on the model choice. Fractional polynomials, basically being a set of (generalized) linear models, are a nice extension of classical polynomials, providing the necessary flexibility to estimate the dose-response curve. Typically, one selects the best-fitting model in this set of polynomials and proceeds as if no model selection were carried out. We show that model averaging using a set of fractional polynomials reduces bias and has better precision in estimating a safe level of exposure (say, the benchmark dose), as compared to an estimator from the selected best model. To estimate a lower limit of this benchmark dose, an approximation of the variance of the model-averaged estimator, as proposed by Burnham and Anderson, can be used. However, this is a conservative method, often resulting in unrealistically low safe doses. Therefore, a bootstrap-based method to more accurately estimate the variance of the model averaged parameter is proposed.     

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Legionnaires'' Disease: Animal Model Selection and Dose-Response Modeling

Legionnaires' disease (LD), first reported in 1976, is an atypical pneumonia caused by bacteria of the genus Legionella, and most frequently by L. pneumophila (Lp). Subsequent research on exposure to the organism employed various animal models, and with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) techniques, the animal model data may provide insights on human dose-response for LD. This article focuses on the rationale for selection of the guinea pig model, comparison of the dose-response model results, comparison of projected low-dose responses for guinea pigs, and risk estimates for humans. Based on both in vivo and in vitro comparisons, the guinea pig (Cavia porcellus) dose-response data were selected for modeling human risk. We completed dose-response modeling for the beta-Poisson (approximate and exact), exponential, probit, logistic, and Weibull models for Lp inhalation, mortality, and infection (end point elevated body temperature) in guinea pigs. For mechanistic reasons, including low-dose exposure probability, further work on human risk estimates for LD employed the exponential and beta-Poisson models. With an exposure of 10 colony-forming units (CFU) (retained dose), the QMRA model predicted a mild infection risk of 0.4 (as evaluated by seroprevalence) and a clinical severity LD case (e.g., hospitalization and supportive care) risk of 0.0009. The calculated rates based on estimated human exposures for outbreaks used for the QMRA model validation are within an order of magnitude of the reported LD rates. These validation results suggest the LD QMRA animal model selection, dose-response modeling, and extension to human risk projections were appropriate.     

对于食品安全问题的透视及反思——风险社会视角下的社会学思考

文章以分析近几年中国食品安全问题呈井喷之势为切入点，剖析隐藏在食品安全问题背后的深层原因，揭示西方发达国家对发展中国家实施新形态霸权主义的运作策略及维护机制。在支撑该体系运作的二元思维方式所最终引发的现代性控制逻辑的瓦解、风险社会来临的背景下，出现现代性发展的严重悖论。反思性成为这一时期社会的主要特征，公众具有普遍的风险意识，由此带来反抗发展主义话语霸权，复兴地方性知识和思想文化的重要历史契机。     

中国工作场所安全规制制度设计

中国工作场所安全问题十分突出,激励不相容是一个很重要的体制原因。本文基于激励相容理论,刻画出我国工作场所安全规制活动中激励不相容现象,并系统揭示中国工作场所安全事故频发背后的体制性因素。通过对安全规制参与主体的行为分析,从激励约束角度对中央安全规制机构、地方安全规制机构、企业、工人等角度进行分析,并提出中国工作场所安全规制激励相容机制设计的政策建议。     

职技高师计算机实践教学体系的改革与创新

本文从计算机实践教学的保证体系、实施体系、过程监控体系和质量考核体系出发,阐述了职技高师计算机实践教学体系改革与创新的措施。     

高校学生评教有效性分析及改进措施

学生评教是高校教师评价的重要组成部分，其有效性问题日益受到广泛关注。文章在分析学生评教有效性的基础上，提出从加大教风学风建设力度，完善评教工作组织体系，完善学生评教指标体系，科学分析评教结果等方面改进高校学生评教，从而达到提高教学质量的根本目的。     

采用悬浮炼铁技术大大减少能量需求和CO2散放物

通过分析问卷调查数据来探讨了大学英语四级写作测试对写作教学产生反拨作用的潜在原因、特性及表现形式,呼吁对CET4写作测试的写作内容及评分标准应进行改革,从而切实提高学生的笔语输出能力。