The Examination of Emotional Facial Expressions Within Parent–Child and Sibling Interactive Contexts: A Systematic Review

This work constitutes a systematic review of the empirical literature about emotional facial expressions displayed in the context of family interaction. Searches of electronic databases from January 1990 until December 2016 generated close to 4400 articles, of which only 26 met the inclusion criteria. Evidence indicate that affective expressions were mostly examined through laboratory and naturalistic observations, within a wide range of interactive contexts in which mother–child dyads significantly outnumbered father–child dyads. Moreover, dyadic partners were found to match each others’ displays and positive and neutral facial expressions proving more frequent than negative facial expressions. Finally, researchers observed some developmental and gender differences regarding the frequency, intensity, and category of emotional displays and identified certain links among facial expression behavior, family relations, personal adjustment, and peer-related social competence.     

伙伴关系--企业竞争优势的新来源

伙伴关系成立的原因在于以伙伴关系为纽带可以建立新的企业优势,它具有以产权关系为纽带形成的"紧密型"企业所不具备的优点.企业通过建立合作伙伴关系,以形成低成本和差异化竞争优势.     

关于吴宓著译情况的系统分析

吴宓先生是一位学识渊博的学者,他的学术研究领域宽阔,涉及范围很广,在诸如新人文主义、西方文化与西方文学的译介、中西文化和文学的比较研究、诗歌创作与鉴赏理论、外国诗学与诗歌翻译等多个方面,都给后人留下了一笔宝贵的遗产。对吴宓的学术性文章概况、文学创作概况、出版的专著概况及未刊文章等方面进行系统客观的分析与述评,无论对于吴宓学术还是对于中国的学术发展,都是一项极有价值和意义的工作。     

边界Logistic违约率模型及实证研究

在前人研究基础上对边界Logistic违约率模型展开进一步研究.首先通过抽样分布性质的研究从理论上说明了为什么边界Logistic违约率模型更优越.然后利用中国公司数据展开实证研究,不仅找到了Cramer问题的中国证据,同时还发现边界Logistic违约率模型不仅能够克服Cramer问题、而且对临界值不敏感、同时预测效率也相对较高.     

中国影子银行违约风险和防范机制研究——来自上市公司委托贷款数据的经验证据

本文运用中国上市公司披露的委托贷款公告数据，实证研究了影子银行的违约风险及其防范机制。数据显示，我国委托贷款的整体违约率为10.09%，远高于同期银行业金融机构的不良贷款率。进一步研究发现，与影子银行风险受信息因素影响的直觉一致，抵押条款和借贷距离会显著影响委托贷款违约率：其一，从抵押视角来看，抵押条款和贷款违约率显著正相关，这表明，为了防范事后的道德风险问题，贷款者会要求借款者提供抵押；其二，从借贷距离视角看，与近距离借贷（或同省借贷）相比，远距离借贷（或异省借贷）的违约风险相对较高，这揭示出，借贷距离越远，贷款者越难对借款者进行甄别和监督，从而推高了借款企业的违约概率。本文研究不仅为我国委托贷款这一影子银行机制的风险状况提供了直接的经验证据，而且对影子银行参与者如何有效防范风险和相关政府部门加强监管具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Searching for Elder Abuse: A Systematic Review of Database Citations

ABSTRACT

The aim of this review was to describe trends and patterns in elder abuse literature and research. All citations in PUB MED, CINAHL, and PsycINFO databases located using the search term “elder abuse” were retrieved (3,059 citations) and 2,418 unique references were identified. Using manifest content analysis, non-research material (1,986 references) was sorted by type and research references (34 dissertations and 398 research articles) were categorized. Research article references most commonly: (1) investigated prevalence, typology, and definitions of elder abuse; (2) utilized quantitative methodology; (3) had first author affiliations to medicine, nursing, and social sciences; and (4) sampled populations of professionals, personnel, cases, or charts. The USA was most frequently listed of 24 identified countries of origin. Elder abuse research shows lack of diversity, slow increase of qualitative research, limited involvement of older persons and family members as participants, and minimal research from developing countries. This review contributes to knowledge valuable for researchers and experts planning future studies or elder abuse projects.     

制定民法典的指导思想及其体系构想

我国国内市场经济的发展和国外成功的立法例 ,为我国制定民法典创造了条件 ,特别是我国法律文化、科技发展及民法自身发展变化趋势 ,奠定了我国民法典制定的指导思想。其表现为从我国发展市场经济的国情出发 ;从我国法律传统和法律文化出发 ;反映科技发展对民法的要求 ;符合当代民法发展的总趋势。由此决定我国未来民法典的体系可采用七分法 ,即分为七编 ,分别为总则、人格法、亲属法、物权法、合同法、继承法、侵权法。     

依托渝怀铁路实施以路兴区发展战略

结合渝怀线的现有资源和经济状况，采用定性和定量相结合的方法分析了渝怀经济带在西部大开发中的地位、作用及近远期发展战略和思路。     

Establishing decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment models

ABSTRACT

Traditional credit risk assessment models do not consider the time factor; they only think of whether a customer will default, but not the when to default. The result cannot provide a manager to make the profit-maximum decision. Actually, even if a customer defaults, the financial institution still can gain profit in some conditions. Nowadays, most research applied the Cox proportional hazards model into their credit scoring models, predicting the time when a customer is most likely to default, to solve the credit risk assessment problem. However, in order to fully utilize the fully dynamic capability of the Cox proportional hazards model, time-varying macroeconomic variables are required which involve more advanced data collection. Since short-term default cases are the ones that bring a great loss for a financial institution, instead of predicting when a loan will default, a loan manager is more interested in identifying those applications which may default within a short period of time when approving loan applications. This paper proposes a decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment model to assess the credit risk. The goal is to use the decision tree to filter the short-term default to produce a highly accurate model that could distinguish default lending. This paper integrates bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) with a synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) into the credit risk model to improve the decision tree stability and its performance on unbalanced data. Finally, a real case of small and medium enterprise loan data that has been drawn from a local financial institution located in Taiwan is presented to further illustrate the proposed approach. After comparing the result that was obtained from the proposed approach with the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, it was found that the classifying recall rate and precision rate of the proposed model was obviously superior to the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.     

CreditRisk+模型采用Poisson分布所产生的经济资本计量误差分析

本文对CreditRisk+模型采用Poisson分布近似债务人违约事件分布这一关键步骤进行系统研究。首先分析了Poisson分布在CreditRisk+模型中的作用,并从理论上证明了采用Poisson分布作为债务人违约事件分布的近似,会导致CreditRisk+模型计算出来的经济资本高估贷款组合的实际风险水平;然后以债务人违约事件服从两点分布并采用蒙特卡罗模拟计算出来的经济资本为参照值,对债务人违约概率的大小与这一近似所引起的经济资本计量误差率进行了敏感性试验,发现为将这一近似所引起的误差率控制在10%的范围内,债务人违约概率的取值不应超过0.2。