ORDER SELECTION IN ARMA MODELS USING THE FOCUSED INFORMATION CRITERION

This paper develops a new approach for order selection in autoregressive moving average models using the focused information criterion. This criterion minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error of the estimator of a parameter of interest. Simulation studies indicate that the suggested criterion is quite effective and comparable to the Akaike information criterion, the corrected Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion in autoregressive moving average order selection. The use of the focused information criterion for the simultaneous selection of regression variables and order of the error process in a linear regression model with autoregressive moving average errors is also considered.     

湘语的确认标准及湘乡方言的归属

湘语的确认经历了从单一标准到综合标准的发展过程。无论从共时的语音现状还是从历史的角度来看,湖南湘乡方言均应视为典型的湘方言。     

农村家庭成份制分析--以赣中农村个案为例

家庭成份制在解放后成为我国农村划分社会成员的主要标准,深刻地影响了我国解放后农村中的两代人,第三代人身上也有其烙印。通过分析1980年代以来赣中农村中家庭成份对农村成员所产生的影响,讨论家庭成份制逐渐失效的原因。     

中国译学标准的回顾与反思

随着译学研究和学科建设的发展 ,译学标准研究越来越受到人们关注。本文就不同历史时期国内主要译学标准进行了简要回顾 ,并探讨了其流变规律。文章还进一步将译学标准置于民族文化语境中 ,细致分析了传统思维方式、价值取向、文化语言对其影响。最后 ,在分析国内译学标准研究现状的基础上 ,对未来研究进行了思考     

知识经济与会计信息质量

认为知识经济改变了传统会计理论的基本概念,改进了会计信息的处理技术与方法,通过分析会计信息质量失真的原因,提出了知识经济条件下会计信息质量的评价标准和提高会计信息质量的相应对策.     

当代艺术雅俗审美标准的理论探讨——兼与《接受视野中的雅俗艺术论》一文作者王晋中先生商榷

本文从俗艺术与雅艺术之划分是否合理,形式和内容是支撑所有艺术不可缺少的两个重要因素,欣赏人群可以清楚地划分为两大社会群体吗,等三个方面对《接受视野中的雅俗艺术论》一文中的某些观点提出异议,第四部分重点探讨当代艺术审美新标准——雅俗共赏的提出以及它能否成为当代艺术审美标准的最高境界。     

与注册工程师制度相适应的工程教育改革

文章阐述了与注册工程师制度相适应的工程教育改革的必要性 ,提出了与注册工程师制度相适应的工程教育改革措施及需要注意的一些问题。     

浅议高校学生干部的选拔标准与保障机制

培养一支高效、团结,具有创新意识的高校学生干部队伍对高校各项工作的顺利进行和教育目标的最终落实具有不可低估的重要作用.应该说,想干、能干与会干三者的统一是高校选拔学生干部的主要标准,而加强对于学生干部思想、心理与能力素质的综合培养,并辅之以营造良好氛围、建立良好激励体制等等必要措施,是学生干部队伍建设的核心内容.     

Dynamic component detection in a multifactor model for stock returns

Summary In this paper the factorial structure of some asset returns quoted at the Milan stock exchange is analyzed in order to detect the presence of a dynamic component. The maximum likelihood estimates of the dynamic model, for which a space-state representation and the Kalman filter were used, are compared with the estimates of the static model via the information criteria. There is no evidence of dynamic factors underlying the analyzed samples of asset returns, while one static factor seems to be relevant. Invited paper at the Conference held in Bologna, Italy, 27–28 May 1993, on ?Statistical Tests: Methodology and Econometric Applications?.     

Evaluating Weight of Evidence in the Mystery of Balkan Endemic Nephropathy

Balkan endemic nephropathy (BEN) is a chronic, progressive wasting disease of the kidneys, endemic in certain rural regions of the Balkan nations Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Romania. It is irreversible and ultimately fatal. Though this disease was first described in the 1950s, its causes have been a mystery and a source of much academic and clinical contention. Possible etiologic agents that have been explored include exposure to metals and metalloids, viruses and bacteria, and the dietary toxins aristolochic acid (AA) and ochratoxin A (OTA). AA is a toxin produced by weeds of the genus Aristolochia, common in Balkan wheat fields. Aristolochia seeds may intermingle with harvested grains and thus inadvertently enter human diets. OTA is a mycotoxin (fungal toxin) common in many foods, including cereal grains. In this study, we analyzed the weight of evidence for each of the suspected causes of BEN using the Bradford Hill criteria (BHC): nine conditions that determine weight of evidence for a causal relationship between an agent and a disease. Each agent postulated to cause BEN was evaluated using the nine criteria, and for each criterion was given a rating based on the strength of the association between exposure to the substance and BEN. From the overall available scientific evidence for each of these suspected risk factors, AA is the agent with the greatest weight of evidence in causing BEN. We describe other methods for testing causality from epidemiological studies, which support this conclusion of AA causing BEN.