Is the web a promising tool for data collection in developing countries? An analysis of the sample bias of 10 web and face-to-face surveys from Africa,Asia, and South America

Whereas the sample composition biases of web surveys have been discussed extensively for developed countries, studies for developing countries are scarce. This article helps to fill that gap by comparing similar non-probability-based web surveys (WEB) and probability-based face-to-face (F2F) surveys both to each other and to the labor force. An analysis of WageIndicator data on work and wages derived from surveys held in 2009–2013 in 10 developing countries (WEB-sample N = 9135; F2F-sample N = 14,659), shows that F2F samples resemble the labor force to a larger extent than web samples do. In both cases, individuals in their 20s and early 30s are overrepresented, and younger and older respondents are underrepresented. This trend is more pronounced in WEB than in F2F samples. However, the differences converge in countries with higher Internet usage. A comparison of the WEB and F2F samples shows that compositions differ greatly, with web respondents being younger, more often male, more often living alone, and higher educated, although these differences are smaller in countries with higher Internet usage. Given the cost differences between the two survey modes, one should nevertheless consider the potential of web surveys as an instrument to gain explorative insights, specifically when searching for individuals with particular characteristics.     

近年来张闻天研究的新进展

2007年至2011年的张闻天研究有了不少新进展,但仍需要发展原创性研究,拓展比较研究,加快整理出版张闻天资料。     

政治过程视角下的执政党实现人民利益能力建设

实现人民利益有利于执政党的长期执政，而能否实现好人民利益，又要依靠党的执政，依靠党的实现人民利益能力的不断提升。从人民利益实现过程分析，党实现人民利益的能力主要包涵人民利益表达能力、综合能力、决策能力、执行能力以及反馈能力。现阶段执政党要提高实现人民利益能力，需要进一步加强思想建设、组织建设、作风建设以及制度建设，不断开创党的建设这一伟大工程的新局面。     

An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two‐year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow‐up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t‐tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross‐lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross‐lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.     

零部件进口对中国制造业技术进步的影响

在中国制造业转型时期,零部件进口对促进我国技术进步至关重要,将出口品国内技术含量作为衡量技术进步的标准,对零部件进口与中国制造业技术进步的关系进行量化分析。研究结果表明:扩大零部件进口规模对技术进步有正向影响,但发挥作用存在一定时滞,且在高技术行业中促进作用尤为显著;扩大零部件进口种类能显著促进技术进步,主要体现在低技术行业;外商直接投资、人均资本和研发投入均对技术进步有正向影响,但对不同技术层次行业的影响程度存在差异。     

An integrative model of leadership behavior

Decades of questionnaire and interview studies have revealed various leadership behaviors observed in successful leaders. However, little is known about the actual behaviors that cause those observations. Given that lay observers are prone to cognitive biases, such as the halo effect, the validity of theories that are exclusively based on observed behaviors is questionable. We thus follow the call of leading scientists in the field and derive a parsimonious model of leadership behavior that is informed by established psychological theories. Building on the taxonomy of Yukl (2012), we propose three task-oriented behavior categories (enhancing understanding, strengthening motivation and facilitating implementation) and three relation-oriented behavior categories (fostering coordination, promoting cooperation and activating resources), each of which is further specified by a number of distinct behaviors. While the task-oriented behaviors are directed towards the accomplishment of shared objectives, the relation-oriented behaviors support this process by increasing the coordinated engagement of the team members. Our model contributes to the advancement of leadership behavior theory by (1) consolidating current taxonomies, (2) sharpening behavioral concepts of leadership behavior, (3) specifying precise relationships between those categories and (4) spurring new hypotheses that can be derived from existing findings in the field of psychology. To test our model as well as the hypotheses derived from this model, we advocate the development of new measurements that overcome the limitations associated with questionnaire and interview studies.     

民主革命时期党的纲领建设及其基本经验

中国共产党从成立时起就开始了自己的纲领建设,并在这一问题上不断探索,虽也有因为认识原因造成的失误,但主要是成功的经验。这些经验包括:必须把党的最高纲领和最低纲领、长远目标和近期目标有机结合起来,党的纲领建设必须与本国国情相结合,必须制定正确的政治路线,必须对中国革命的长期性和艰巨性有充分的估计。     

论后现代技术的品性和实践

以信息、语言、记忆工业和时间物体为代表的后现代技术,批判现代技术的机械化、商品化、功利化、权力化人类中心主义以及物化和异化带来的各类难以预测的事故和灾难。主张在非祛魅性、多元性、生态性和非决定论的后现代科学基础上,根除"技术官僚主义",推动后现代技术往更加人道、民主、自由、智慧和艺术的方向发展,将技术进一步人性化和真善美一体化,使其真正为新人民和全人类的文明服务。     

Semi-doubly optimal concentric circles fitting with presence of heteroscedasticity

Previous studies focus on homogeneous and isotropic assumptions about the noisy data. Many methods have been developed recently for fitting concentric circles to data. In this paper, these statistical assumptions have been relaxed. To the best of our knowledge, only one iterative method has been recently developed. Due to its complexity, no such algorithm is available to compute the reliable maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Accordingly, we have developed four new methods that outperform the existing methods including the orthogonal distance regression (ODR). We also discuss which of these methods is superior according to the four principles: statistical efficiency, accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real images have been conducted to validate our findings.     

Is ethnic prejudice declining in Britain? Change in social distance attitudes among ethnic majority and minority Britons

Most literature on racial prejudice deals with the racial attitudes of the ethnic majority and ethnic minorities separately. This paper breaks this tradition. We examine the social distance attitudes of white and non‐white British residents to test if these attitudes follow the same trends over time, whether they are driven by the same social processes and whether they are inter‐related. We have three main findings. Firstly, social distance from other ethnic groups has declined over time for both white and ethnic minority Britons. For the white majority there are both period and cohort elements to this decline. Secondly, we see some evidence that social distance between the majority and minority groups is reciprocal. Specifically, minorities who experience rejection by the white British feel a greater sense of distance from them. Thirdly, we find that all groups share the perception of the same ethnic hierarchy. We see evidence of particularly widespread hostility towards Muslim Britons from all ethnic groups suggesting that Muslims are singled out for negative attention from many British residents of all other backgrounds, including a large number who do not express hostility to other groups.