Practical procedures to deal with common support problems in matching estimation

This paper assesses the performance of common estimators adjusting for differences in covariates, such as matching and regression, when faced with the so-called common support problems. It also shows how different procedures suggested in the literature affect the properties of such estimators. Based on an empirical Monte Carlo simulation design, a lack of common support is found to increase the root-mean-squared error of all investigated parametric and semiparametric estimators. Dropping observations that are off support usually improves their performance, although the magnitude of the improvement depends on the particular method used.     

A fistful of euros: Is the German one‐euro job workfare scheme effective for participants?

Hohmeyer K, Wolff J. A fistful of euros: is the German one‐euro job workfare scheme effective for participants? Welfare reforms have constituted a major policy issue in many OECD countries in recent decades. In Germany, a major reform in 2005 emphasised the activation of welfare recipients and introduced a workfare programme –‘One‐Euro Jobs’– on a large scale. In the present study, the impact of one‐euro jobs on the employment prospects of different groups of participants was estimated. The analysis was conducted on a large sample of welfare recipients using propensity score matching. The sample of one‐euro job participants and other welfare recipients was drawn from administrative records comprising all those who started their participation in the programme in early 2005. Our results showed that participation slightly improved the medium‐term employment prospects for women but not for men. Participation reduced the employment rate of participants younger than 25 years but raised it for some of the older participant groups. In conclusion, one‐euro jobs are effective for participants who have been jobless for several years but ineffective for participants who were recently employed.     

A propensity score matching analysis of the relationship between victim sex and capital juror decision-making in North Carolina

A small body of prior research has examined the impact of victim sex on jury death penalty decision-making and the majority of this research has demonstrated some evidence of a “female victim effect” such that cases involving a female victim are more likely to receive the death penalty than similarly situated cases with a male victim. However, within this line of research studies have suggested that victim sex may work in conjunction with other case characteristics. In order to further explore this phenomenon, the current study examines a near-population of death penalty cases from North Carolina (n = 1069) from 1977–2009 using propensity score matching. Results demonstrate that once cases are matched on more than 50 legal and extralegal case characteristics, there is no statistically significant or substantive link between victim sex and death penalty decision-making. Findings suggest that it is concrete differences in the legal and extralegal factors observed in cases with female victims compared to male victims that shape jury death sentence decisions rather than a direct effect of victim sex (before matching: OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.20–1.95; p < .001/after matching: OR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.66–1.24; p = .52). Study limitations and implications are also discussed.     

Poverty and educational achievement in the US: A less-biased estimate using PISA 2012 data

In the current paper, we employ the most recent Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data to calculate a less-biased estimate of poverty on US achievement. The PISA was specifically chosen as it is an assessment removed from a specific curriculum and instead focuses on concepts that students should know in order to participate in a global economy. Using a propensity score matching approach, our findings suggest that US students in poverty have notable educational attainment deficiencies compared to a matched group of students who are not in poverty. In other words, when we select two students who have a great deal in common but for the fact that one comes from a poverty background, the student in poverty is expected to perform nearly 28 points, or about a quarter of a standard deviation lower, on the PISA assessment. In real terms, this puts math achievement for children not in poverty on-par with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average, while children in poverty are well below the OECD average.     

The effect of sociodemographic (mis)match between interviewers and respondents on unit and item nonresponse in Belgium

Interviewer characteristics affect nonresponse and measurement errors in face-to-face surveys. Some studies have shown that mismatched sociodemographic characteristics – for example gender – affect people's behavior when interacting with an interviewer at the door and during the survey interview, resulting in more nonresponse. We investigate the effect of sociodemographic (mis)matching on nonresponse in two successive rounds of the European Social Survey in Belgium. As such, we replicate the analyses of the effect of (mis)matching gender and age on unit nonresponse on the one hand, and of gender, age and education level (mis)matching on item nonresponse on the other hand. Recurring effects of sociodemographic (mis)match are found for both unit and item nonresponse.     

A Statewide Parenting Alternative Sentencing Program: Description and Preliminary Outcomes

ABSTRACT

The Washington State Legislature created the Parenting Sentencing Alternative in 2010, authorizing a substitute to total confinement for parents of minor children. The Alternative is designed to strengthen family bonds and improve parenting skills to encourage successful reintegration. An overview of the Alternative’s history, design, and implementation is presented, followed by preliminary results from an impact evaluation. A case study of a successful participant is presented, and implications for the findings are discussed.     

Efficiency or Competition? A Structural Econometric Analysis of Canada's AWS Auction and the Set‐Aside Provision

In 2008, Industry Canada auctioned 105 MHz of spectrum to a group of bidders that included incumbents and potential new entrants into the Canadian mobile phone market, raising $4.25 billion. In an effort to promote new entry, 40 MHz of spectrum was set‐aside for new entrants. In order to estimate the implicit cost of the set‐aside provision, we estimate the parameters of the bidders' profit function via a maximum match estimator based on the notion of pairwise stability in matches. We find that all telecommunications firms valued both geographic complementarities across auction licenses as well as absolute spectrum. Under a reasonable alternative scenario, our results indicate that the set‐aside led to a total profit loss of approximately 10%.     

农村地区食品安全监管配套制度的完善与落实

自2009年《食品安全法》颁布至今,我国农村地区的食品安全事件依旧频发,《食品安全法》在农村地区的实施效果远不如城市。造成这种状况的原因除长期以来存在的城乡二元结构和农村居民自身生活习惯等问题外,更主要的是《食品安全法》作为一部在全国范围内统一实施的法律,其明显缺乏专门针对农村食品经营主体的监管配套制度,从而使该法在广大农村地区实施的过程中监管能力明显不足。据此,提出构建食品安全监管在农村地区的配套制度,加强技术监管和信息化管理以及充分发挥社会共治等建议。     

Noninformative priors for linear combinations of normal means with unequal variances

For normal populations with unequal variances, we develop matching priors and reference priors for a linear combination of the means. Here, we find three second-order matching priors: a highest posterior density (HPD) matching prior, a cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching prior, and a likelihood ratio (LR) matching prior. Furthermore, we show that the reference priors are all first-order matching priors, but that they do not satisfy the second-order matching criterion that establishes the symmetry and the unimodality of the posterior under the developed priors. The results of a simulation indicate that the second-order matching prior outperforms the reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities, in a frequentist sense. Finally, we compare the Bayesian credible intervals based on the developed priors with the confidence intervals derived from real data.     

Estimating the effectiveness of a misdemeanor drug diversion program using propensity score matching and survival analyses

This study analyzes three years of data on misdemeanor drug offenders in Winnebago County, Wisconsin. A portion of these offenders opted into a Misdemeanor Drug Diversion Program (MDDP) offered instead of traditional adjudication. Recidivism in the treatment and comparison groups is estimated using standard binary response techniques augmented with propensity score matching to address selection bias. Results show that the MDDP reduces the probability of re-offense by 16%, after adjusting for possible selection bias. Cox proportional hazard modeling is also used to assess time-to-re-offense differentials between the treatment and comparison groups. The survival analysis indicates that the hazard rate of re-offense is 60% lower per day among those treated with the MDDP program than those who did not complete the program. The average number of days to re-offense among those that do re-offend is 297 days in the treatment group and 203 days in the comparison group.