信息化在“四化”发展中的贡献度研究——基于中国省际面板数据

构建“四化”发展水平指标体系,基于2006-2013年中国省际面板数据,运用全局主成分分析法得出“四化”发展水平得分,在此基础上,对“四化”耦合发展互动关系进行计量分析.结果显示:“四化”之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;信息化对于农业现代化边际贡献度为0.231 8,弱于工业化的边际贡献;信息化对于城镇化的边际贡献度为0.702 3,强于工业化对城镇化的贡献;信息化对于工业化的边际贡献不显著.基于实证分析结果,提出加强城镇信息化建设和提升城镇化人口素质的政策建议.     

Empirical likelihood based detection procedure for change point in mean residual life functions under random censorship

The mean residual life (MRL) function is one of the basic parameters of interest in survival analysis that describes the expected remaining time of an individual after a certain age. The study of changes in the MRL function is practical and interesting because it may help us to identify some factors such as age and gender that may influence the remaining lifetimes of patients after receiving a certain surgery. In this paper, we propose a detection procedure based on the empirical likelihood for the changes in MRL functions with right censored data. Two real examples are also given: Veterans' administration lung cancer study and Stanford heart transplant to illustrate the detecting procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论现代汉语中的“T1+（的）+T2”结构

现代汉语中存在着这样一种特殊的复合时间结构——T1+（的）+T2,T1、T2均是具有指示性的时点。在言语交际过程中, 人们常使用“T1+（的）+T2”这类复合时间结构的语言表达式,将原来具有一定距离的“事件”（包括已然事件和未然事件）拉回 到现时,从而产生加强现场感的语用效果,且站在说话人角度,具有积极的交际效果。     

稳压电源的自适应去火弧技术

针对传统基于继电器控制的稳压电源在带负载工作时,档位切换常常伴随火弧现象的问题,设计了一种可广泛 应用于此类稳压电源上的自适应去火弧技术：使用光耦和多级运放完成对零点和电压电流的采样;基于单片机的10量, 实现对继电器的驱动和控制;基于RCC自激震荡原理为系统提供稳定电源;设计了稳压器的完整软件系统程序,并在软 件中应用自适应去火弧算法。实验结果表明：自适应去火弧技术,能够有效地规避火弧现象的产生,并能够根据条件作 出调整。采用自适应去火弧技术的稳压系统达到了设计目标,延长了系统工作寿命。     

基于高斯图的截面数据精确分段及重构

针对反求工程中截面重构时由于分段点提取不精确造成重构结果不理想的问题,提出一种分段点精确提取方 法。基于截面数据的法向量信息构建高斯图,将分段点确定在一个区间内,根据区间端点将截面数据分为不同的特征 段;优先重构直线特征,再根据约束重构自由特征,并在自由特征重构过程中建立动态搜索模型,用二次插值法动态搜索 精确分段点。实验表明该方法提高了分段点的提取精度和截面重构的精度,重构的结果很好地还原了产品模型的初始 设计意图。     

基于G1连续的圆弧与B样条分段区间确定及重构方法

在逆向工程中,截面曲线重构质量的高低决定了能否更好地反映物体的初始设计意图。高精度分段点的提取则 是提高重构质量的关键。针对圆弧与B样条曲线重构过程中,无法确定分段点所在区间问题,提出了圆弧与B样条线 性化处理方法,并结合基于数理统计原理的分段点区间确定办法和基于黄金分割法的重构方法,提取了圆弧与B样条间 的高精度分段点。实例证明该方法能在现存数据之间搜寻精度更高的分段点。该方法有效地解决了圆弧与B样条高精 度分段点提取问题。     

提高效率、维护公平:产权四模式对深化我国集体林权改革的启示

回顾我国集体林权改革的主要进展,介绍产权四模式的主要观点,提出深化集体林权改革的思考和建议。研究发现,林权改革没有统一的格式,产权四模式总结了发展中国家林权改革的一些规律,可以为我国集体林改所借鉴;与其他模式相比,财产权模式对我国集体林改影响最大,明晰产权、提高效率一直是集体林改的目标;农业结构模式明确提出的市场机制可能带来产权不安全的问题需要引起重视;制度模式主张政府发挥产权改革的主导作用、制定法律法规巩固产权的主张对深化林权改革有重要借鉴意义;共有产权模式提出的保留共有森林资源为贫困人口提供"一席之地"的主张,为减贫和乡村振兴提供思路。在结束明晰产权主体改革任务之后,应将工作重点转向制定相关法律法规巩固产权改革成果、维护农户林权利益;在推动林地规模化经营中,要谨慎推进森林资源金融化,防止出现"代价高昂的不平等";充分认识集体林权改革的复杂性、艰巨性和长期性,将林改工作从工程式运作逐渐转向常规监管,加强林权管理。     

Palm Distributions for Log Gaussian Cox Processes

This paper establishes a remarkable result regarding Palm distributions for a log Gaussian Cox process: the reduced Palm distribution for a log Gaussian Cox process is itself a log Gaussian Cox process that only differs from the original log Gaussian Cox process in the intensity function. This new result is used to study functional summaries for log Gaussian Cox processes.     

A Bayesian analysis of a change in the parameters of autoregressive time series

In this article, we consider a Bayesian analysis of a possible change in the parameters of autoregressive time series of known order p, AR(p). An unconditional Bayesian test based on highest posterior density (HPD) credible sets is determined. The test is useful to detect a change in any one of the parameters separately. Using the Gibbs sampler algorithm, we approximate the posterior densities of the change point and other parameters to calculate the p-values that define our test.     

High‐frequency family contact: a road to nowhere for infants

Understanding the practices which support the best interests of infants when placed in out‐of‐home care in the first year of life is a significant challenge. A study based in Victoria, Australia, explored the practice by the Children's Court of ordering high‐frequency contact (4–7 days a week) with the infant's mother and father when they are placed in care in the first year of life. A literature review revealed little attention to the issue of frequency of family contact for infants. An audit of case files of all infants in care in mid‐2007 showed that at 1 year follow‐up, there was no difference in the reunification rate for children with a period of high‐frequency contact and those with less contact with their mothers and fathers. Focus groups revealed deep divisions of opinion about high‐frequency family contact which are played out in the adversarial Children's Court system in Victoria. The study highlights the complexity of understanding and supporting the attachment relationships at this critical period in the infant's life.