中国OFDI的宏观经济影响因素及其门槛特征

文章解释了国内宏观经济因素对OFDI的内在影响机理,并发现OFDI及其影响因素在中国不同地区具有显著的差异性.在此基础上,采用门槛回归方法构造非线性面板数据模型,进一步检验了影响对外直接投资规模的若干因素的门槛特征,并分别从经济发展水平、引进外资、产业结构、民营经济发展等方面测定了正向促进对外直接投资规模的门槛水平.实证结果表明:当宏观经济因素指标达到或超过门槛值时,对中国OFDI才具有显著的促进作用;反之,则不存在影响甚至对OFDI会产生挤出效应,即中国对外直接投资的宏观影响因素表现出了明显的门限特征.     

On a Pandemic Threshold Theorem of the Early Kermack–McKendrick Model with Individual Heterogeneity

A pandemic threshold theorem of the Kermack–McKendrick epidemic system with individual heterogeneity is proved from the definition of R ₀ by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz. The early Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model is extended to recognize individual heterogeneity, where the state variable indicates an epidemiological state or genetic, physiological, or behavioral characteristics such as risk of infection. With the basic reproduction number R ₀ for the heterogeneous population, the final size equation of the limit epidemic starting from a completely susceptible steady state at t = ?∞ has a unique positive solution if and only if R ₀  > 1. The main result is that the positive solution of the final size equation gives the lower bound of the intensity of any epidemic starting from a host population composed of susceptible and a few infected individuals who spread on a noncompact domain of the trait variable.     

Some aspects of probability forecasting

The problems of assessing, comparing and combining probability forecasts for a binary events sequence are considered. A Gaussian threshold model (analytically of closed form) is introduced which allows generation of different probability forecast sequences valid for the same events. Chi - squared type test statistics, and also a marginal-conditional method are proposed for the assessment problem, and an asymptotic normality result is given. A graphical method is developed for the comparison problem, based upon decomposing arbitrary proper scoring rules into certain elementary scoring functions. The special role of the logarithmic scoring rule is examined in the context of Neyman - Pearson theory.     

特低渗透油藏合理井距确定新方法

注采井距是影响特低渗透油藏开发效果的关键，目前主要根据渗透率和启动压力梯度大小来确定。阐述了这种方法的局限性，根据物理模拟实验分析了启动压力梯度和应力敏感系数的变化规     

Critical Effects and Exposure Limits

The use of critical effects in the determination of occupational exposure limits (OELs) in Sweden is subjected to a statistical study. Many of the present OELs are high in relation to known noeffect levels and effect levels, and the degree of protection has a surprisingly weak correlation with the seriousness of the adverse effect. Several proposals for improved procedures are put forward. One of these is to supplement the concept of critical effects with that of dominant effects. A dominant effect of a substance is a health effect that is at some concentration the most serious health effect.     

欧盟知识产权跨界禁令与竞争规则研究

《布鲁塞尔规则》2001年取代了《布鲁塞尔公约》,成为新的欧盟指令来规范相关的跨界国际私法的争议。欧盟委员会2004年针对适用《欧洲经济共同体条约》第81条的规定颁布了配套的指令TTBER和适用这个指令的指南。指令第3条规定了两个协议合作的企业市场份额门槛的认定标准,这个标准取代了过去的分类方法,在欧洲引起广泛的讨论。欧盟知识产权跨界禁令和竞争规则研究,突破了知识产权的地域性原则,完善了知识产权的竞争规则,并提供了相应的法律救济,有助于中国政府指导自己的企业与欧盟开展贸易。     

JOINT BEHAVIOUR OF PRECEDENCES AND EXCEEDANCES IN RANDOM THRESHOLD MODELS

This paper concerns the joint behaviour of precedence and exceedance statistics in random threshold models. Joint distributions of precedence and exceedance statistics, both exact and asymptotic, are obtained, and the results are illustrated for random thresholds based on order statistics and record values.     

"555"初始脉冲的修正

由“555”构成的多谐振荡器作为脉冲信号源时,往往会出现通电后产生的第一个脉冲比后续脉冲宽,就这种现象的原因进行具体分析,并给出其解决方法。     

空间集聚、规模门槛与技术创新:基于中国制造业企业普查数据的实证分析

本文构建了关于空间集聚、规模门槛与技术创新关系的分析框架,并利用我国制造业企业普查数据检验了空间集聚对技术创新影响的规模门槛效应.实证结果显示:专业化集聚和多样化集聚有利于企业技术创新,但是溢出效应存在门槛效应.对于规模门槛而言,专业化集聚和多样化集聚对企业技术创新的影响并非是线性关系,城市规模越小,专业化集聚对企业技术创新的影响更大,城市规模越大,多样化集聚对企业技术创新更显著.与大企业相比,多样化集聚对小企业技术创新的影响更明显.专业化集聚和多样化集聚对技术创新的影响在东部地区的比较明显,而对于中西部地区影响不显著.     

二元结构、实际汇率与巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应——基于面板门限模型的实证分析

运用Hansen提出的面板门限模型,以二元结构为门限变量,研究了43个国家1980~2010年不同收入国家,基于二元结构变化的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的大小(B-S效应),研究发现:二元结构对B-S效应的影响存在明显的双门限效应,高收入国家不存在二元结构问题,其B-S效应显著;中等收入国家基本上跨过了第一门限值,其B-S效应存在,但弱于高收入国家,而低收入国家基本不存在B-S效应;表明在不同二元结构下,由于工资不会同劳动生产率同步增长,劳动生产率对实际汇率的存在不完全传导机制,可以解释"人民币汇率之谜"。