正确把握新时代坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路——中国化马克思主义发展思想研究

党的十九大明确作出“坚持和加强党的全面领导”的重大政治论断,并把它作为新时代“党的建设”总要求的首要观点、坚持和发展中国特色社会主义“基本方略”的第一条提出来,这是中国共产党人进行党建工作的基本指导和根本遵循。新时代,正确把握坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路至关重要,因为这是我们党与生俱来和新时代历史使命的必然要求,是我们党带领人民战胜敌人的强大法宝和克服一切困难风险的定海神针;是执政党持之以恒正风肃纪和紧锣密鼓反腐惩恶的内在需要和客观要求。     

社会资本视角下“以购代捐”精准扶贫模式研究 ——基于凉山彝族自治州的实证分析

以凉山彝族自治州在精准扶贫过程中,为破解贫困地区“孤岛效应”,探索“以购代捐”扶贫模式为例,基于社会资本导向 的反贫困治理策略,分析“以购代捐”扶贫模式的理论内涵、演进路径、模式创新等,提出“以购代捐”正面临,物流投入滞后,影 响农产品品质;质量标准缺乏,制约农产品价格;质量检测缺位,食品安全堪忧;产品价格缺乏优势,长期执行易陷入行政摊派 等现实问题,为了完善“以购代捐”精准扶贫模式,建议：一要调动贫困农户生产积极性,保证农民“爱种（养）”;二要合理兼顾帮 扶单位的利益,让对口帮扶单位“爱吃”;三是政策措施要简单易行,让行政主管部门“爱扶”。     

古镇旅游资源开发的总体设计思路——以胜芳古镇旅游资源开发为例

以胜芳古镇旅游资源开发为例,通过对古镇旅游资源的分析评价、SWOT分析、古镇旅游发展目标与战略等问题的分析,扼要阐释了古镇旅游资源开发的总体设计思路。     

全过程跟踪审计在高校新校区建设工程项目中的实施

开展高校新校区建设工程项目全过程跟踪审计,是以一整套法律法规为准绳和依据,遵照审计规范和原则,按照审计工作计划,采用合适的审计方式,分步有序地对工程建设项目的全过程进行监督评价,以期有效地控制工程造价,提高资金使用效益,促进学校建设工程目标的实现。     

中华武术散打之局部力量与整体力量解读

散打之力量是散打运动中除运动技术等要素外,非常重要的另一要素,散打之力量在运动中表现出两个方面的应用,即散打之局部力量和整体力量;散打之局部力量和整体力量在比赛中交替展现,正是由于散打之局部力量和整体力量的不停变换使用及不同情况下各种力量共同作用,运动员才能在比赛中赢得胜利。散打之局部力量与整体力量的科学应用与训练不仅塑造了练习者完美的运动身形,而且培养了个人不凡的运动气质,是一项完美的体育运动。     

Adaptive phase I/II clinical trials for drug combination assessment in oncology using the outcomes of each cycle

Many new anticancer agents can be combined with existing drugs, as combining a number of drugs may be expected to have a better therapeutic effect than monotherapy owing to synergistic effects. Furthermore, to drive drug development and to reduce the associated cost, there has been a growing tendency to combine these as phase I/II trials. With respect to phase I/II oncology trials for the assessment of dose combinations, in the existing methodologies in which efficacy based on tumor response and safety based on toxicity are modeled as binary outcomes, it is not possible to enroll and treat the next cohort of patients unless the best overall response has been determined in the current cohort. Thus, the trial duration might be potentially extended to an unacceptable degree. In this study, we proposed a method that randomizes the next cohort of patients in the phase II part to the dose combination based on the estimated response rate using all the available observed data upon determination of the overall response in the current cohort. We compared the proposed method to the existing method using simulation studies. These demonstrated that the percentage of optimal dose combinations selected in the proposed method is not less than that in the existing method and that the trial duration in the proposed method is shortened compared to that in the existing method. The proposed method meets both ethical and financial requirements, and we believe it has the potential to contribute to expedite drug development.     

Precise large deviations for the difference of two sums of END random variables with heavy tails

Assume that there are two types of insurance contracts in an insurance company, and the ith related claims are denoted by {X_ij, j ? 1}, i = 1, 2. In this article, the asymptotic behaviors of precise large deviations for non random difference ∑^n₁(t)_{j = 1}X_1j ? ∑^n₂(t)_{j = 1}X_2j and random difference ∑^N₁(t)_{j = 1}X_1j ? ∑^N₂(t)_{j = 1}X_2j are investigated, and under several assumptions, some corresponding asymptotic formulas are obtained.     

Adaptive designs for single‐arm phase II trials in oncology

Clinical phase II trials in oncology are conducted to determine whether the activity of a new anticancer treatment is promising enough to merit further investigation. Two‐stage designs are commonly used for this situation to allow for early termination. Designs proposed in the literature so far have the common drawback that the sample sizes for the two stages have to be specified in the protocol and have to be adhered to strictly during the course of the trial. As a consequence, designs that allow a higher extent of flexibility are desirable. In this article, we propose a new adaptive method that allows an arbitrary modification of the sample size of the second stage using the results of the interim analysis or external information while controlling the type I error rate. If the sample size is not changed during the trial, the proposed design shows very similar characteristics to the optimal two‐stage design proposed by Chang et al. (Biometrics 1987; 43:865–874). However, the new design allows the use of mid‐course information for the planning of the second stage, thus meeting practical requirements when performing clinical phase II trials in oncology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论现代科学视域下工程哲学发展的新思路

量子理论的测不准原理,将观察者与被观测对象合为一个整体的思路无疑应对工程有相当重要的启迪。对于工程而言,科与玄再不必睚眦论战,科学将与人生观及其衍生价值观一起,成为工程的指导原则,科学与人文在工程哲学层面上可以交汇统一而不必保持对立。而代表着对工程前瞻式的指引后顾式的反思的工程哲学,亦将不只是研究人工物,也将研究人。     

Estimates of subgroup treatment effects in overall nonsignificant trials: To what extent should we believe in them?

In drug development, it sometimes occurs that a new drug does not demonstrate effectiveness for the full study population but appears to be beneficial in a relevant subgroup. In case the subgroup of interest was not part of a confirmatory testing strategy, the inflation of the overall type I error is substantial and therefore such a subgroup analysis finding can only be seen as exploratory at best. To support such exploratory findings, an appropriate replication of the subgroup finding should be undertaken in a new trial. We should, however, be reasonably confident in the observed treatment effect size to be able to use this estimate in a replication trial in the subpopulation of interest. We were therefore interested in evaluating the bias of the estimate of the subgroup treatment effect, after selection based on significance for the subgroup in an overall “failed” trial. Different scenarios, involving continuous as well as dichotomous outcomes, were investigated via simulation studies. It is shown that the bias associated with subgroup findings in overall nonsignificant clinical trials is on average large and varies substantially across plausible scenarios. This renders the subgroup treatment estimate from the original trial of limited value to design the replication trial. An empirical Bayesian shrinkage method is suggested to minimize this overestimation. The proposed estimator appears to offer either a good or a conservative correction to the observed subgroup treatment effect hence provides a more reliable subgroup treatment effect estimate for adequate planning of future studies.