Unified multivariate survival model with a surviving fraction: an application to a Brazilian customer churn data

In this paper we propose a new lifetime model for multivariate survival data in presence of surviving fractions and examine some of its properties. Its genesis is based on situations in which there are m types of unobservable competing causes, where each cause is related to a time of occurrence of an event of interest. Our model is a multivariate extension of the univariate survival cure rate model proposed by Rodrigues et al. [37 J. Rodrigues, V.G. Cancho, M. de Castro, and F. Louzada-Neto, On the unification of long-term survival models, Statist. Probab. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 753–759. doi: 10.1016/j.spl.2008.10.029[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]]. The inferential approach exploits the maximum likelihood tools. We perform a simulation study in order to verify the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. The simulation study also focus on size and power of the likelihood ratio test. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set on customer churn data.     

试论统筹兼顾与科学发展

统筹兼顾历来是中国共产党领导人运用于社会主义建设与发展的重要方法。其哲学的基本内涵包括平衡性、协调性和系统性等重要思想。统筹兼顾作为一种方法，我们在运用时要坚持主体与客体相统一的原则、动态联系原则、重点与非重点相统一的原则。统筹兼顾是科学发展的根本方法，统筹好经济与社会的关系、经济社会发展与人的发展的关系，经济社会发展与自然的全面协调发展的关系，是把握好科学发展的关键，是构建和谐社会的前提和保障。     

摒弃应试教学,开展素质教育──大学英语教学改革的关键举措

本文在分析大学英语教学改革多年难见成效的原因之后指出，统考不仅造成了应试教学的泛滥，还在一定程度上妨碍了教学观念的转变，阻碍了教学改革的进程。大学英语教学改革取得突破性进展的关键举措就在于摒弃统考并更新教学观念，调整教学内容，改进课程设置，最终变应试教学为素质教育。     

霓裳羽衣舞敦煌——试论敦煌莫高窟服饰流变及其文化意义

文章通过敦煌莫高窟服饰流变的分析,认为莫高窟服饰文化是一部中华民族服饰发展史,是中华民族多元文化融合,并最后汇聚于中华的历史见证。     

行政法视角下的不动产登记制度--兼评《不动产登记暂行条例》

建立不动产统一登记制度,是国务院机构改革和职能转变的重要内容,是提高不动产交易效率和安全性的必要之举,也是完善社会主义市场经济体制的必然要求,对保护不动产权利人合法权益、提高政府治理效率具有重要意义。相关的法律中有关不动产登记的不同规定,应当尽快随之配套修改,做好各项规定的衔接。登记机构的职责还应进一步细化与明确,将不动产统一登记制度整体性纳入简政放权的进程中。     

Visual Studio .NET Enterprise Architects中基于 Visio的数据库建模

Visio是UML的建模工具,也可以利用它对数据库建模,规范数据库的开发过程.本文详细地讨论了利用Visio进行规范化数据库建模的方法.     

Research Design Meets Market Design: Using Centralized Assignment for Impact Evaluation

A growing number of school districts use centralized assignment mechanisms to allocate school seats in a manner that reflects student preferences and school priorities. Many of these assignment schemes use lotteries to ration seats when schools are oversubscribed. The resulting random assignment opens the door to credible quasi‐experimental research designs for the evaluation of school effectiveness. Yet the question of how best to separate the lottery‐generated randomization integral to such designs from non‐random preferences and priorities remains open. This paper develops easily‐implemented empirical strategies that fully exploit the random assignment embedded in a wide class of mechanisms, while also revealing why seats are randomized at one school but not another. We use these methods to evaluate charter schools in Denver, one of a growing number of districts that combine charter and traditional public schools in a unified assignment system. The resulting estimates show large achievement gains from charter school attendance. Our approach generates efficiency gains over ad hoc methods, such as those that focus on schools ranked first, while also identifying a more representative average causal effect. We also show how to use centralized assignment mechanisms to identify causal effects in models with multiple school sectors.     

军权立宪:《中华民国约法》的历史反思

由军阀权力控制出台的《中华民国约法》一直是后人批评的对象。军阀立宪反映了中国自有法统以来,传统一元权力思维模式自上而下传递的实质没有发生改变。反思以军权政治为特征的《中华民国约法》,可以为当今宪政建设提供相当的借鉴作用。     

战国变法运动与大一统的中央集权

战国变法运动的目的是要建立起一个大一统的帝国.它以富国强兵为争夺天下的手段,用加强中央集权来打击内部的分裂势力.变法运动的过程是体制改革的完成与大一统实现的过程.     

论根本违约

本文阐述了根本违约制度的沿革，简要剖析了这一制度的渊源及其合理性，着重论述了这一制度在建立我国现代统一合同法中的借鉴意义。