儿童拼图性识字的记忆研究

以艾宾浩斯的遗忘曲线为基本框架,通过拼图性学习和常规性学习两种不同学习生字方法的实验比较,对儿童识字的一般性规律进行研究。得到结论:拼图性识字在记忆的保持上优于常规性识字;拼图性识字在学习有笔画难度的字上优于常规性识字;拼图性识字同样符合艾宾浩斯的遗忘曲线规律。拼图性识字教学符合儿童以动作思维为主的认识特点,符合儿童心理的年龄特征,能提高对字形记忆的效果,让儿童可以有效、有趣、自主进行早期识字学习。     

Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.     

Biased Bootstrap Methods for Reducing the Effects of Contamination

Contamination of a sampled distribution, for example by a heavy-tailed distribution, can degrade the performance of a statistical estimator. We suggest a general approach to alleviating this problem, using a version of the weighted bootstrap. The idea is to 'tilt' away from the contaminated distribution by a given (but arbitrary) amount, in a direction that minimizes a measure of the new distribution's dispersion. This theoretical proposal has a simple empirical version, which results in each data value being assigned a weight according to an assessment of its influence on dispersion. Importantly, distance can be measured directly in terms of the likely level of contamination, without reference to an empirical measure of scale. This makes the procedure particularly attractive for use in multivariate problems. It has several forms, depending on the definitions taken for dispersion and for distance between distributions. Examples of dispersion measures include variance and generalizations based on high order moments. Practicable measures of the distance between distributions may be based on power divergence, which includes Hellinger and Kullback–Leibler distances. The resulting location estimator has a smooth, redescending influence curve and appears to avoid computational difficulties that are typically associated with redescending estimators. Its breakdown point can be located at any desired value ε∈ (0, ½) simply by 'trimming' to a known distance (depending only on ε and the choice of distance measure) from the empirical distribution. The estimator has an affine equivariant multivariate form. Further, the general method is applicable to a range of statistical problems, including regression.     

多股流换热器传递函数系数的理论确定方法

用数值模拟方法对一四股流板翅式换热器分别施加流量、进口温度的阶跃变化，获得其出口温度动态的响应曲线；用理论方法研究了其传染函数的系数，从而得到了四股流换热器的传递函数，并对其结果进行了分析，所得的四股流板翅式换热器的传递函数系数炎其自动控制试验提供了理论依据。     

为什么要改变世界，能否改变世界，怎样改变世界？——马克思对其哲学主题的探究和解答及其当代启示

马克思所认为的现实世界,就是费尔巴哈所说的"多灾多难的现实人间"。在这样的世界中,传统的私有制尤其是资本主义私有制造成了人类自身全面而深刻的异化。因此,必须"改变世界"。社会生活的本质和历史发展规律的发现,使得对于世界的改变有了根基和现实的可能性。要切实地改变世界,既要有"批判的武器"(科学的理论),又要有"武器的批判"(无产阶级革命运动和无产阶级专政),消灭一切旧的阻碍生产力发展和社会进步的不合理的经济关系、政治关系与思想文化关系,为人的自由全面发展和共产主义的实现创造条件。在当代中国,改变世界的核心问题就是要解决"东西南北"问题,改变不公正、不合理的国际经济政治秩序的问题,就是树立科学发展观、更好地发展我们自己的问题,从而也是构建和谐社会乃至和谐世界的问题。     

普世价值的客观存在及现实意义

受传统形而上学思维的影响，“普世价值”被看成是一种超验的、自在而在的“价值自性”或“绝对理念”，其实普世价值根本上只是一种社会历史现象，是根源于人类现实生活所形成的一种普世性的价值共识。普世价值的客观存在是不可否认的，其存在具有共识性、全球性、自发性、时代性和原则性等主要特点。普世价值的现实意义和作用就在于，它为全球各国、各民族之间的交流、沟通与合作提供共同的价值前提，也为每一时代的人类生活提供基本的价值导向。     

低闭合油藏油水同层储层含水饱和度新模型

G地区P油层由于闭合高度低，油水分异差，存在大量的油水同层，且该区油水同层与油层的物性、电性相近，使得传统的利用电阻率和孔隙度计算含水饱和度的方法失效；加上工区开发过程中采取多层合试，单层试油且产液性质为油水同出的层位较少，可供选择进行油水同层饱和度建模的样本较少，使得该区油水同层饱和度的准确计算成为储量提交的难点。针对这一问题，提出以少量的密闭取芯井为基础样本，首先应用相渗资料建立起产水率与含水饱和度关系，然后外推到常规取芯井获得含水饱和度的补充样本，进而通过优选孔隙度、电阻率比值等建模参数，构建了适用于研究区油水同层的饱和度计算新模型，通过统计，其平均相对误差仅为3.59%，满足了储量计算的精度要求。     

Identity for the NPMLE in Censored Data Models

We derive an identity for nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLE) and regularized MLEs in censored data models which expresses the standardized maximum likelihood estimator in terms of the standardized empirical process. This identity provides an effective starting point in proving both consistency and efficiency of NPMLE and regularized MLE. The identity and corresponding method for proving efficiency is illustrated for the NPMLE in the univariate right-censored data model, the regularized MLE in the current status data model and for an implicit NPMLE based on a mixture of right-censored and current status data. Furthermore, a general algorithm for estimation of the limiting variance of the NPMLE is provided. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Simple Formula for Calculating the "Mass Density" of a Lognormally Distributed Characteristic: Applications to Risk Analysis

Statements such as "80% of the employees do 20% of the work" or "the richest 1% of society controls 10% of its assets" are commonly used to describe the distribution or concentration of a variable characteristic within a population. Analogous statements can be constructed to reflect the relationship between probability and concentration for unvarying quantities surrounded by uncertainty. Both kinds of statements represent specific usages of a general relationship, the "mass density function," that is not widely exploited in risk analysis and management. This paper derives a simple formula for the mass density function when the uncertainty and/or the variability in a quantity is lognormally distributed; the formula gives the risk analyst an exact, "back-of-the-envelope" method for determining the fraction of the total amount of a quantity contained within any portion of its distribution. For example, if exposures to a toxicant are lognormally distributed with σ_{in x}= 2, 50% of all the exposure is borne by the 2.3% of persons most heavily exposed. Implications of this formula for various issues in risk assessment are explored, including: (1) the marginal benefits of risk reduction; (2) distributional equity and risk perception; (3) accurate confidence intervals for the population mean when a limited set of data is available; (4) the possible biases introduced by the uncritical assumption that extreme "outliers" exist; and (5) the calculation of the value of new information.     

浅议刑法增设普遍管辖原则问题

新中国第一部刑法典已实施整整１７年，目前亟需进行修改。在《总则》部分增设普遍管辖原则，尤其应引起重视。这是同国际犯罪斗争和履行国际义务的需要，也是行使国家主权和完善刑法典的要求