利率下降对我国居民跨期消费选择的影响分析

利率下降对居民跨期消费选择影响存在收入效应和替代效应.由于这两种效应对居民当期消费的作用方向完全相反,因而总效应要取决于这两种效应的强弱.对于我国中低收入居民来说,利率下降对其跨期消费选择的收入效应特别明显,替代效应则趋于零,因而降患反而会减少其当期消费数量.对于我国中高收入居民来说,利率下降对其跨期消费选择的替代效应在很大程度上被收入效应所抵消了,因而降息拉动其当期消费也不明显.为了刺激居民消费,除了实施降息政策以外,还必须采取其他政策与之配合.     

乐透型彩票设计合理性的数学分析

研究了基本乐透型彩票类型的管理模型，根据概率论公式计算出获得各种奖项的可能性、并利用剩余奖金金额、彩票的吸引力等指标评价了彩票设计方案的合理性，推算出彩票发行部门收益最高的选号范围。     

宁波市农民持续增收的保障机制研究

农民收入问题是“三农”问题的核心,改革开放30年来,宁波市农民人均纯收入快速增长,走在全国前列,有力支撑了区域经济的快速发展。宁波市农民收入快速增长具有阶段性、多元性和差异性的特点,其驱动机制包括：制度创新、城乡统筹、科技支撑和社会保障等因素。宁波市要实现2020年农民纯收入翻番的目标,仍面临一系列的制约瓶颈,需要把增加农民收入与城乡一体化、产业布局调整、促进非农就业和加速城镇化相结合,用工业化、城镇化、市场化破解农民收入持续增长的难题。     

个人工薪所得税问题研究

根据税收公平的原则,对目前个人所得税工薪所得税费用扣除标准和计算方法等存在的缺失进行分析,避免因缴税方法或计算而造成税赋的不公平。通过定量计算,提出新的个人工薪所得税计算方法,以期完善个税制度,有效预防涉税案件的发生。     

Micro‐level dynamics of social assistance receipt: Evidence from four European countries

This study investigated the monthly dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt – in particular the incidence of long‐term benefit receipt – in four European countries: Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. The analysis is based on four separate administrative panel data sets, each covering the 96‐month period from January 2001 to December 2008. Benefit dynamics were found to vary considerably across countries. In the two Nordic countries, long‐term benefit receipt was found to be a rare exception. Most recipients, however, had multiple spells and the majority of benefit leavers returned to benefits within a few months of leaving. In Luxembourg and The Netherlands, long‐term benefit receipt was frequent, but benefit leavers were much less likely to return to benefit receipt after exit. The total duration of benefit receipt per individual across spells was two to three times as high in The Netherlands and Luxembourg as in Norway and Sweden.     

调整利息税率对中国居民人均消费影响的实证分析—基于1985—2008年的经验数据

 本文通过所构建的居民消费效用函数模型，得到利息税率调整引起居民人均消费的变化量,并利用中国1985—2007年的数据估计出模型中的参数。通过实证分析发现：第一，调整利息税率对我国人均消费产生的收入效应大于替代效应；第二，调整利息税率对城镇和农村居民的人均消费影响的效应不同：提高利息税率对城镇居民人均消费产生的总效应相对较大，而降低利息税率对农村居民人均消费产生的总效应相对较大；第三，城镇居民消费时间偏好、储蓄效用因子大于农村居民的消费时间偏好和储蓄效用因子。     

中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响因素分析

本文利用2004年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据，分析了个人因素、家庭因素以及社会因素对中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响。结果显示，个人因素如年龄、受教育程度、工作单位类型及月均收入水平对其意愿生育数的影响具有显著的统计学意义；社会因素如城乡、所在省份亦对意愿生育数有影响；但家庭因素，被调查者有无兄弟姐妹对其意愿生育数影响的统计学意义不显著。     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

Low‐Income Mothers’ Private Safety Nets and Children’s Socioemotional Well‐Being

Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Well‐being Study (N = 1,162) and the National Evaluation of Welfare‐to‐Work Strategies (N = 1,308), we estimate associations between material and instrumental support available to low‐income mothers and young children’s socioemotional well‐being. In multivariate OLS models, we find mothers’ available support is negatively associated with children’s behavior problems and positively associated with prosocial behavior in both data sets; associations between available support and children’s internalizing and prosocial behaviors attenuate but remain robust in residualized change models. Overall, results support the hypothesis that the availability of a private safety net is positively associated with children’s socioemotional adjustment.     

Getting payments at Centrelink

This paper presents findings from a small qualitative study of tertiary students who were receiving income support payments from Centrelink. They are some of the millions of Australians receiving income support payments from Centrelink each year. The aim of the study was to explore and illuminate the experience of receiving income support payments. The findings indicate that people who may appear to have no problems accessing Centrelink may nevertheless undertake considerable efforts to receive their payments. These efforts involve practical tasks, intra and interpersonal processes and use of material resources. As many social work clients receive some sort of income support payment, these issues are relevant across social work settings.