Covariate Selection for the Semiparametric Additive Risk Model

Abstract.  This paper considers covariate selection for the additive hazards model. This model is particularly simple to study theoretically and its practical implementation has several major advantages to the similar methodology for the proportional hazards model. One complication compared with the proportional model is, however, that there is no simple likelihood to work with. We here study a least squares criterion with desirable properties and show how this criterion can be interpreted as a prediction error. Given this criterion, we define ridge and Lasso estimators as well as an adaptive Lasso and study their large sample properties for the situation where the number of covariates p is smaller than the number of observations. We also show that the adaptive Lasso has the oracle property. In many practical situations, it is more relevant to tackle the situation with large p compared with the number of observations. We do this by studying the properties of the so-called Dantzig selector in the setting of the additive risk model. Specifically, we establish a bound on how close the solution is to a true sparse signal in the case where the number of covariates is large. In a simulation study, we also compare the Dantzig and adaptive Lasso for a moderate to small number of covariates. The methods are applied to a breast cancer data set with gene expression recordings and to the primary biliary cirrhosis clinical data.     

Parametric bootstrap inferences for the growth curve models with intraclass correlation structure

This paper presents parametric bootstrap (PB) approaches for hypothesis testing and interval estimation of the fixed effects and the variance component in the growth curve models with intraclass correlation structure. The PB pivot variables are proposed based on the sufficient statistics of the parameters. Some simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed approaches with the generalized inferences. Our studies show that the PB approaches perform satisfactorily for various cell sizes and parameter configurations, and tends to outperform the generalized inferences with respect to the coverage probabilities and powers. The PB approaches not only have almost exact coverage probabilities and Type I error rates, but also have the shorter expected lengths and the higher powers. Furthermore, the PB procedure can be simply carried out by a few simulation steps. Finally, the proposed approaches are illustrated by using a real data example.     

带有潜变量的结构方程模型在突发事件应急管理中的应用

如何使事件与机构挂钩是突发事件应急管理中的一个重要问题;通过带有潜变量的结构方程模型能够建立起事件与机构之间的定量联系,从而为进一步对机构作评价和制定考核标准提供依据。     

Optimal use of two auxiliary variables in double sampling

Double sampling scheme is used when cheap auxiliary variables may be measured to improve the estimation of a finite population parameter. Several estimators for population mean, ratio of means and variance are available, when two dependent samples are drawn. However, there are few proposals for the case of independent samples. In this paper both cases of dependent and independent samples are dealt with. A general approach for estimating a finite population parameter is given, showing that all the proposed estimators are particular cases of the same general class. The minimum variance bound for any estimator in this class is provided (at the first order of approximation). Furthermore, an optimal estimator which reaches this minimum is found.     

Sparse Bayesian variable selection in multinomial probit regression model with application to high-dimensional data classification

Here we consider a multinomial probit regression model where the number of variables substantially exceeds the sample size and only a subset of the available variables is associated with the response. Thus selecting a small number of relevant variables for classification has received a great deal of attention. Generally when the number of variables is substantial, sparsity-enforcing priors for the regression coefficients are called for on grounds of predictive generalization and computational ease. In this paper, we propose a sparse Bayesian variable selection method in multinomial probit regression model for multi-class classification. The performance of our proposed method is demonstrated with one simulated data and three well-known gene expression profiling data: breast cancer data, leukemia data, and small round blue-cell tumors. The results show that compared with other methods, our method is able to select the relevant variables and can obtain competitive classification accuracy with a small subset of relevant genes.     

Identifiable finite mixtures of location models for clustering mixed-mode data

For clustering mixed categorical and continuous data, Lawrence and Krzanowski (1996) proposed a finite mixture model in which component densities conform to the location model. In the graphical models literature the location model is known as the homogeneous Conditional Gaussian model. In this paper it is shown that their model is not identifiable without imposing additional restrictions. Specifically, for g groups and m locations, (g!)m–1 distinct sets of parameter values (not including permutations of the group mixing parameters) produce the same likelihood function. Excessive shrinkage of parameter estimates in a simulation experiment reported by Lawrence and Krzanowski (1996) is shown to be an artifact of the model's non-identifiability. Identifiable finite mixture models can be obtained by imposing restrictions on the conditional means of the continuous variables. These new identified models are assessed in simulation experiments. The conditional mean structure of the continuous variables in the restricted location mixture models is similar to that in the underlying variable mixture models proposed by Everitt (1988), but the restricted location mixture models are more computationally tractable.     

Estimation of Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models

This note compares a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach implemented by Watanabe with a maximum likelihood ML approach based on an efficient importance sampling procedure to estimate dynamic bivariate mixture models. In these models, stock price volatility and trading volume are jointly directed by the unobservable number of price-relevant information arrivals, which is specified as a serially correlated random variable. It is shown that the efficient importance sampling technique is extremely accurate and that it produces results that differ significantly from those reported by Watanabe.     

基于Shapley值法的移动增值服务价值链利润分配模型

研究对象为任意节点连接和任意支撑的平面框架。一般梁单元由等截面直杆及其杆端的轴向弹簧、切向弹簧和转动弹簧组成，推导得到此类单元的刚度矩阵、单元在8种基本荷载作用下的等效节点荷载。采用Matlab语言编写了适用于一般节点非线性连接框架的静力分析程序，非线性形式为指数函数或多项式函数，可以得到结构不同连接刚度下的节点位移、杆端位移和杆端力。算例显示出节点柔度对结构受力和变形的影响。     

Robust models in probability sampling

In the estimation of a population mean or total from a random sample, certain methods based on linear models are known to be automatically design consistent, regardless of how well the underlying model describes the population. A sufficient condition is identified for this type of robustness to model failure; the condition, which we call 'internal bias calibration', relates to the combination of a model and the method used to fit it. Included among the internally bias-calibrated models, in addition to the aforementioned linear models, are certain canonical link generalized linear models and nonparametric regressions constructed from them by a particular style of local likelihood fitting. Other models can often be made robust by using a suboptimal fitting method. Thus the class of model-based, but design consistent, analyses is enlarged to include more realistic models for certain types of survey variable such as binary indicators and counts. Particular applications discussed are the estimation of the size of a population subdomain, as arises in tax auditing for example, and the estimation of a bootstrap tail probability.     

Bayesian semiparametric inference for the accelerated failure-time model

Bayesian semiparametric inference is considered for a loglinear model. This model consists of a parametric component for the regression coefficients and a nonparametric component for the unknown error distribution. Bayesian analysis is studied for the case of a parametric prior on the regression coefficients and a mixture-of-Dirichlet-processes prior on the unknown error distribution. A Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is developed to compute the features of the posterior distribution. A model selection method for obtaining a more parsimonious set of predictors is studied. The method adds indicator variables to the regression equation. The set of indicator variables represents all the possible subsets to be considered. A MCMC method is developed to search stochastically for the best subset. These procedures are applied to two examples, one with censored data.