Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH returns and volatilities

Bootstrap procedures are useful to obtain forecast densities for both returns and volatilities in the context of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. In this paper, we analyse the effect of additive outliers on the finite sample properties of these bootstrap densities and show that, when obtained using maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and standard filters for the volatilities, they are badly affected with dramatic consequences on the estimation of Value-at-Risk. We propose constructing bootstrap densities for returns and volatilities using a robust parameter estimator based on variance targeting implemented together with an adequate modification of the volatility filter. We show that the performance of the proposed procedure is adequate when compared with available robust alternatives. The results are illustrated with both simulated and real data.     

Estimation of gaussian mixtures with rotationally invariant covariance matrices

Homoscedastic and heteroscedastic Gaussian mixtures differ in the constraints placed on the covariance matrices of the mixture components. A new mixture, called herein a strophoscedastic mixture, is defined by a new constraint, This constraint requires the matrices to be identical under orthogonal trans¬formations, where different transformations are allowed for different matrices. It is shown that the M-step of the EM method for estimating the parameters of strophoscedastic mixtures from sample data is explicitly solvable using singular value decompositions. Consequently, the EM-based maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is as easily implemented for strophoscedastic mixtures as it is for homoscedastic and heteroscedastic mixtures. An example of a “noisy” Archimedian spiral is presented.     

A perspective of composite sampling

Composite samples are formed by physically mixing samples. Usually, composite samples are used to reduce the overall cost associated with analytical procedures that must be performed on each sample, but they can also be used to protect the privacy of individuals.

Composite sampling can reduce the cost of identifying individual cases that have a certain trait, such as those with a rare disease or those exceeding pollution-level standards. Not much is lost by applying this method as long as the trait is relatively rare.

Composite sampling can reduce the cost of estimating the mean of some process. When samples are composited, the ability to estimate the variance is lost. In spite of this, the potential savings are so great that composite samples have been used.

Much of this paper deasl with the variance of estimators based on composite sampling when the porportions of hte original samples comprising the composite sample are actually random. Taking repeated samples and measurements on several composite samples complicates the prodcedure, but allows the estimation of between and within variation as well as measurement error.     

Point-symmetry models and decomposition for collapsed square contingency tables

For square contingency tables with ordered categories, there may be some cases that one wants to analyze them by considering collapsed tables with some adjacent categories combined in the original table. This paper proposes three kinds of new models which have the structure of point-symmetry (PS), quasi point-symmetry and marginal point-symmetry for collapsed square tables. This paper also gives a decomposition of the PS model for collapsed square tables. The father's and his daughter's occupational mobility data are analyzed using new models.     

Balanced and partially balanced incomplete block designs with autocorrelation errors

The paper aims to find variance balanced and variance partially balanced incomplete block designs when observations within blocks are autocorrelated and we call them BIBAC and PBIBAC designs. Orthogonal arrays of type I and type II when used as BIBAC designs have smaller average variance of elementary contrasts of treatment effects compared to the corresponding Balanced Incomplete Block (BIB) designs with homoscedastic, uncorrelated errors. The relative efficiency of BIB designs compared to BIBAC designs depends on the block size k and the autocorrelation ρ and is independent of the number of treatments. Further this relative efficiency increases with increasing k. Partially balanced incomplete block designs with autocorrelated errors are introduced using partially balanced incomplete block designs and orthogonal arrays of type I and type II.     

Umvu estimation for the cumulative hazard function in a pareto distribution of the first kind

The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the cumulative hazard function in the Pareto distribution of the first kind is derived. The variance of the estimator is also obtained in an analytic form, and for some cases its values are compared numerically with mean square errors of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Elliptically contoured model and factorization of wllks1 A

In a series of papers, Kshirsagar (1964, 1971) and McHenry and Kshirsagar (1977), factorize Wilks' A into a number of factors and find the independent null multivariate beta densities of these factors. These factors are the likelihood ratio test criteria for testing the goodness of fit of certain assigned discriminant functions or canonical variables either in the space of independent or dependent variables. Essentially the factors of Wilks' A are the factors of certain multivariate beta distributed matrix or its determinant. The Bartlett decomposition of the underlying multivariate beta distribution into independent factors determines the distribution of these factors. The present paper generalizes Kshirsagar's (1971) normal theory to the elliptically contoured model, and shows that his results are null robust for the elliptically contoured model.     

Testing Covariance Stationarity

In this paper, we show that the widely used stationarity tests such as the Kwiatkowski Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) test have power close to size in the presence of time-varying unconditional variance. We propose a new test as a complement of the existing tests. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test possesses the following characteristics: (i) in the presence of unit root or a structural change in the mean, the proposed test is as powerful as the KPSS and other tests; (ii) in the presence of a changing variance, the traditional tests perform badly whereas the proposed test has high power comparing to the existing tests; (iii) the proposed test has the same size as traditional stationarity tests under the null hypothesis of stationarity. An application to daily observations of return on U.S. Dollar/Euro exchange rate reveals the existence of instability in the unconditional variance when the entire sample is considered, but stability is found in subsamples.     

晚唐五代时期金河黑河水系变迁与环境演变

汉代黑河(删丹河,或名张掖河,又名弱水)与北大河(金河,又名呼蚕水)交汇入注居延海,汉代以后直到唐代之前都没有记载.<元和郡县图志>记载两水分流,金河流注白亭海,张掖河流注居延海.敦煌文献记载晚唐时金河与张掖河交汇流注居延海,使居延海湖面出现一个恢复期.此外,金河和黑河流域地区居民结构变化、农业人口和用水量减少、黑河径流量增加也是居延海湖面增加的原因.