Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

The older the bolder: Does relative age among peers influence children’s preference for competition?

Having been relatively old at school tends to have a long lasting positive effect on professional achievement, in particular in competitive environments (sports, politics). We investigate the roots of this pattern and study whether the relative age position of children at school plays a role in shaping their preference for competition. We run a controlled experiment in high schools across two states in Australia. Our participants are students who are the very oldest or very youngest in their classroom. We elicit their preference for competition using the Niederle and Vesterlund (2007) task and find evidence of an effect of relative age. This effect is concentrated on male students. We find no differences in self-confidence, and risk attitudes between relatively old and young students. These results suggest that the observed pattern may come from pure preference for competition.     

积分变换求梁的变形

本文从求解梁挠度的二阶差分方程出发，通过Z变换，最后推导出计算挠度和转角的简单公式，使计算过程简化。对于变截面梁和复杂受载下，此法尤为简便。同时，这也是处理离散参数的数学方法—Z变换在力学中应用的初步尝试。     

新课改背景下数学师范生专业技能培养的探究

介绍新课改对数学教师的新要求,设想数学师范生专业技能的结构,并对数学师范生专业技能的培养原则及其措施进行了探究.     

女性在田野调查中的性别处境研究

当研究者进入田野，田野对象就会试图将研究者放置在一个位置上，而研究者也会给自身寻找一个适合的位置．田野对象对研究者的定位反映的即是一般的社会性别价值。通过对12位女性研究者进行访谈，拟了解女性研究者是否因自身性别而遭受困境，其性别先前理解又是如何影响她对于性别差别遭遇的反应的。结果发现，虽然处于不同的年龄、专业领域，拥有不同的生活阅历，女性研究者在田野中的经验却有着相似之处。即她们的专业角色被忽视，更多地被视为传统女性的角色。在这一现实背景下，为了使研究能够顺利进行。女性研究者通常的选择是表现得有礼貌或者不得不忍气吞声。     

Bayesian penalized B-spline estimation approach for epidemic models

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are normally used to model dynamic processes in applied sciences such as biology, engineering, physics, and many other areas. In these models, the parameters are usually unknown, and thus they are often specified artificially or empirically. Alternatively, a feasible method is to estimate the parameters based on observed data. In this study, we propose a Bayesian penalized B-spline approach to estimate the parameters and initial values for ODEs used in epidemiology. We evaluated the efficiency of the proposed method based on simulations using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the Kermack–McKendrick model. The proposed approach is also illustrated based on a real application to the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C virus in mainland China.     

On generalised estimating equations for vector regression

Generalised estimating equations (GEE) for regression problems with vector‐valued responses are examined. When the response vectors are of mixed type (e.g. continuous–binary response pairs), the GEE approach is a semiparametric alternative to full‐likelihood copula methods, and is closely related to Prentice & Zhao's mean‐covariance estimation equations approach. When the response vectors are of the same type (e.g. measurements on left and right eyes), the GEE approach can be viewed as a ‘plug‐in’ to existing methods, such as the vglm function from the state‐of‐the‐art VGAM package in R. In either scenario, the GEE approach offers asymptotically correct inferences on model parameters regardless of whether the working variance–covariance model is correctly or incorrectly specified. The finite‐sample performance of the method is assessed using simulation studies based on a burn injury dataset and a sorbinil eye trial dataset. The method is applied to data analysis examples using the same two datasets, as well as to a trivariate binary dataset on three plant species in the Hunua ranges of Auckland.     

Translating Spirituality: Universalism and Particularism in the Diffusion of Spiritual Care from the United States to Israel

Research on the transnational diffusion of ideas and practices shows how cultural objects go through translation, adaptation, and vernacularization when implemented in new localities. Less attention is given to the translators themselves and their heterogeneous and often conflicting visions. Drawing on the notion of transnational social fields (TSF s), this article investigates how cultural objects get vernacularized differently in different parts of the TSF , demonstrating how processes of translation reflect larger social and political struggles over questions of identity. As a case study, we focus on the attempt of actors from Israel and the United States to institutionalize spiritual care in Israeli health‐care organizations. The analysis reveals how spiritual care functioned as a porous cultural object, open to a wide range of interpretations and debates. While actors in New York saw in spiritual care the opportunity to bridge to Israeli Jews and create a global Jewish identity, Israeli actors split between using spiritual care as a vehicle for creating a local Israeli Jewish identity and seeing in spiritual care the opportunity to establish universal identities, broader than the Jewish one. The disagreement and conflicts between the groups influenced the translation process, turning it into a contentious struggle that involved different positions on the continuum between particularism and universalism.     

Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.     

论《齐民要术》新生复合词中的同义词

《齐民要术》是中古时期口语性较强的一部农业科技著作，书中使用了较多复合词，有的复合词意义相近或相关，彼此聚合成群，形成了不同的同义词词场。这些同义词词场中的复合词在构词上都有相同的特点：即构成复合词的两个语素单用时意义相近或相关，这样的复合词应是当时的语言社团根据已有的并列式构词法创造的新词。在汉语词汇的历时发展中，《齐民要术》中使用的同义复合词呈现出不同的发展结果：由曾经常用的单音词作语素构成的复合词或易于通过隐喻机制形成新义的复合词使用频率相对较高，生命力相对较强，在竞争中也相对较容易发展成汉语中的常用复合词；使用频率低或难以产生隐喻引申义的复合词很容易退出语言交际领域，从而成为汉语词汇历史发展中某阶段的陈迹。