基督教在唐代传播之顿挫及其原因探析

基督教 (景教 )在中国唐代的传播历经顿挫 ,这种初传的顺利与惨遭禁绝 ,是多种因素相互作用的结果。对此问题的研究 ,有助于我们加深理解中西文化的差异和两者之间的相互关系     

充分就业状态及其发展陷阱

人力资源配置效率高低的根本标志就是就业或失业程度,国际主流经济学把充分就业定义为消灭了非自愿失业的就业状态。市场供求规律调节和市场经济所特有的人口规律发挥作用的必然结果,就是供过于求的劳动力作为失业人口而存在,这是一切市场经济的常态。失业人口流动是市场经济高效率运行的根本原因所在。充分就业作为当今世界各国普遍追求的最优发展状态,归根结底是有利于人的发展的。入世后并正处在社会转型期的现代中国,仍然存在传统非效率就业的巨大路径依赖性,因此应尽快走出"充分就业陷阱"。     

Insurer ambiguity and market failure

A series of studies investigate the decision processes of actuaries, underwriters, and reinsurers in setting premiums for ambiguous and uncertain risks. Survey data on prices reveal that all three types of these insurance decision makers are risk averse and ambiguity averse. In addition, groups appear to be influenced in their premium-setting decisions by specific reference points such as expected loss and the concern with insolvency. This behavior is consistent with a growing analytical and empirical literature in economics and decision processes that investigates the role that uncertainty plays on managerial choices. Improved risk-assessment procedures and government involvement in providing protection against catastrophic losses may induce insurers to reduce premiums and broaden available coverage.This article is part of a larger effort supported by the National Science Foundation on The Role of Insurance, Compensation, Regulation, and Protective Behavior in Decision Making about Risk and Misfortune. We greatly appreciate the many helpful comments and suggestions by our colleagues on the project: Jon Baron, Colin Camerer, Neil Doherty, Jack Hershey, Eric Johnson, and Paul Kleindorfer. Support from NSF Grant #SES8809299 is gratefully acknowledged.     

刍议列强对洪宪帝制的态度及影响

帝制初起时 ,一战方酣 ,西方列强无暇东顾 ,对华政策大多以日本的意志为意志 ,为了争得对袁世凯政府的控制 ,列强争相怂勇袁世凯称帝。当袁世凯称帝之事呼之欲出、反对之声叠起时 ,日本为了乘中国国体变动之机扰乱中国以达其侵略之目的 ,联合西方列强出面干涉 ,劝告袁世凯延缓帝制 ,煽动中国内部叛乱 ,并对袁世凯施加经济压力。以日本为首的列强的出尔反尔是袁世凯政权走向灭亡的关键性因素之一。     

家族持股、董事会独立性与自愿性信息披露

由于家族成员在家族企业中的特殊角色和地位,家族企业的信息透明度问题引起了学者们的关注。为了检验家族企业中家族成员持股、董事会的独立性对自愿性信息披露的影响,采用家族上市公司作为研究样本进行实证检验。研究发现家族持股比例与自愿性信息披露水平之间存在着显著的“倒U型”曲线关系,过高的家族成员持股不利于改善家族企业的自愿性信息披露状况;更加独立的董事长对于增强公司的信息透明度具有积极的作用,而董事会中独立董事的比例并没有表现出对家族上市公司自愿性信息披露的显著贡献。     

我国助学贷款政策变革中政府干预机制博弈分析

我国助学贷款政策历经多次变革形成目前以生源地信用助学贷款为主的助学贷款模式,这种变革离不开政府对助学贷款市场的干预。市场机制下,助学贷款经办银行和借款学生博弈中不可置信威胁的存在导致老机制助学贷款市场失灵。政府干预的作用是将银行信贷资金供给功能与信贷决策功能分离,并将信贷管理与决策交由县级资助中心员工负责,消除了银行拒贷威胁,市场失灵得以纠正,但借款学生道德风险仍是助学贷款政策顺利运行的重要隐患。     

左西孟旦治疗高龄老年终末期心力衰竭疗效评价

目的观察左西孟旦治疗高龄老年终末期心力衰竭患者的临床效果及安全性。方法符合纳入标准的56例高龄老年心衰患者被随机分成常规治疗组和左西孟旦＋常规治疗组。观察两组治疗前后的临床疗效、心功能,测定NT-pro BNP,SV,LVEF等指标,并进行安全性分析。结果左西孟旦组显效率、有效率和总有效率均高于常规治疗组（P〈0.05）;左西孟旦治疗在降低NT-pro BNP,改善SV,LVEF方面均显著优于常规治疗组（P〈0.05）,两组不良反应发生率差别无统计学意义（P〉0.05）,未发生严重不良事件,常见不良反应为低血压、食欲不振、头昏。结论左西孟旦治疗高龄老年终末期心力衰竭患者,可明显改善其血流动力学指标,提高心功能,改善心力衰竭的症状,安全性及耐受性良好。     

Bathtub distributions: a review

Bathtub distributions are characterized by bathtub failure rate functions . These are possibly more realisitic models than the monotone failure rate models . A systematic account of such distributions is not available and this review aims to give such an account . We give some easily verifiable conditions to check the bathtub property of a distribution along with methods to construct such distributions . We also discuss some stochastic and reliablity mechanisms which lead to bathtub distributions. These include mixtures ( stochastic failure rate models ) , series system , stochastic differential equation models and so on. We also review inference on bathtub distributions. The paper concludes with a rather exhaustive list of bathtub distributions.     

On Non-parametric Estimation of the Survival Function with Competing Risks

The non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are derived for survival functions associated with individual risks or system components in a reliability framework. Lifetimes are observed for systems that contain one or more of those components. Analogous to a competing risks model, the system is assumed to fail upon the first instance of any component failure; i.e. the system is configured in series. For any given risk or component type, the asymptotic distribution is shown to depend explicitly on the unknown survival function of the other risks, as well as the censoring distribution. Survival functions with increasing failure rate are investigated as a special case. The order restricted MLE is shown to be consistent under mild assumptions of the underlying component lifetime distributions.     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.