Empowering phase II clinical trials to reduce phase III failures

The large number of failures in phase III clinical trials, which occur at a rate of approximately 45%, is studied herein relative to possible countermeasures. First, the phenomenon of failures is numerically described. Second, the main reasons for failures are reported, together with some generic improvements suggested in the related literature. This study shows how statistics explain, but do not justify, the high failure rate observed. The rate of failures due to a lack of efficacy that are not expected, is considered to be at least 10%. Expanding phase II is the simplest and most intuitive way to reduce phase III failures since it can reduce phase III false negative findings and launches of phase III trials when the treatment is positive but suboptimal. Moreover, phase II enlargement is discussed using an economic profile. As resources for research are often limited, enlarging phase II should be evaluated on a case‐by‐case basis. Alternative strategies, such as biomarker‐based enrichments and adaptive designs, may aid in reducing failures. However, these strategies also have very low application rates with little likelihood of rapid growth.     

The compound class of linear failure rate-power series distributions: Model,properties, and applications

In this article, a new class of distributions is introduced, which generalizes the linear failure rate distribution and is obtained by compounding this distribution and power series class of distributions. This new class of distributions is called the linear failure rate-power series distributions and contains some new distributions such as linear failure rate-geometric, linear failure rate-Poisson, linear failure rate-logarithmic, linear failure rate-binomial distributions, and Rayleigh-power series class of distributions. Some former works such as exponential-power series class of distributions, exponential-geometric, exponential-Poisson, and exponential-logarithmic distributions are special cases of the new proposed model. The ability of the linear failure rate-power series class of distributions is in covering five possible hazard rate function, that is, increasing, decreasing, upside-down bathtub (unimodal), bathtub and increasing-decreasing-increasing shaped. Several properties of this class of distributions such as moments, maximum likelihood estimation procedure via an EM-algorithm and inference for a large sample, are discussed in this article. In order to show the flexibility and potentiality, the fitted results of the new class of distributions and some of its submodels are compared using two real datasets.     

Cooperative Membership and Community Engagement: Findings From a Latin American Survey

Cooperatives as organization have mainly been explored in the field of business and management due to their operation in the business sector, and studies of nonprofit organizations have given little attention to them. Consequently, cooperatives studies have tended to examine economic outcomes, such as productivity and job security, comparing them to conventional business firms. Nevertheless, cooperatives are membership associations and have organizational characteristics in common with other types of voluntary associations. Furthermore, one explicit organizational principle of cooperatives is concern for community, and their contributions to the community have been covered frequently by media. Therefore, it is imperative to examine cooperative members’ community engagement, and compare it to other types of association members. Using a national sample of Venezuelans, the relationships between association memberships and community involvement were compared across different types of associations. The results showed that cooperative members had a higher likelihood of being involved in community matters than those from other types of associations. Although the Venezuelan cooperatives have received vast support from the Chavez government for community development, this result can have an implication on the cooperatives’ organizational identity as those who provide members with resources necessary for civic engagement beyond the organizations.     

2011款一汽丰田卡罗拉1.6L GL AT轿车发动机无法起动故障诊断与排除

以故障树形式先分析了一汽丰田卡罗拉1.6L GL轿车1ZR-FE发动机不能起动的故障。故障排除一般思路为故障现象确认、原因分析、必要的检查、从易到难逐步缩小故障范围,然后锁定最小故障部件或范围,再进行必要的修理或更换,最后试车确定故障已排除。该故障诊断涉及到起动系统、发动机停机系统及电控发动机的诊断和检查。其中电控发动机的诊断,又包括了点火系统、燃油供给系统、进排气系统、电子控制系统、发动机本体的诊断和检查。     

Clubs as vehicles for inclusion in the urban fabric? Immigrants and elitist associational practices in Antwerp, 1795–1830

In both migration studies and sociocultural studies of associational practices, membership of voluntary associations has been considered as a vehicle for inclusion in the urban fabric. In migration studies, on the one hand, attention has been focused primarily on migrants’ own organizations, revealing questions about the role of these organizations as obstacles or incentives for social embedding in the new living environment. Associational studies, on the other hand, have emphasized social practices and social differences between clubs, without taking into account the impact upon immigration. This article brings together both historiographical traditions, and emphasizes the structural and socio-cultural elements of incorporation processes. The research investigates a group of immigrant-businessmen and their participation in club life in Antwerp between 1795 and 1830, asking whether associational life was used as a vehicle for inclusion, or whether access was only feasible when other inclusion mechanisms had been successful. By situating the timing of any entry into club membership in relation to other aspects of their personal and professional life-course, it becomes clear that access was preceded by other social mechanisms. Indeed, even for wealthy businessmen, mechanisms of exclusion existed as a consequence of existing social hierarchies amongst voluntary associations in Antwerp.     

“I'm the Next American Idol”: Cooling Out,Accounts, and Perseverance at Reality Talent Show Auditions

Drawing on fieldwork at American Idol auditions, I describe how contestants come to accept their fate after being cut from the competition. I revisit Goffman's metaphor of “cooling the mark out,” especially the cooling out strategy of offering people another chance to qualify for roles at which they failed. Contestants' desires to audition and audition again after failure are driven by meritocratic ideals. They develop accounts in line with these ideals to explain how despite being rejected they are talented and can still excel in the future. This study contributes to literature on “cooling out” by highlighting how people draw on larger systems of meaning—ideologies supporting meritocratic values in the case of Idol contestants—when making sense of their failures.     

Weighted Estimator for the Linear Transformation Models with Multivariate Failure Time Data

In this article, a simple and efficient weighted method is proposed to improve the estimation efficiency for the linear transformation models with multivariate failure time data. Asymptotic properties of the estimators with a closed-form variance-covariance matrix are established. In addition, a goodness-of-fit test is developed to evaluate the adequacy of the model. The performance of proposed method and the comparison on the efficiency between the proposed method and the working independence method (Lu, 2005) are conducted in finite-sample situation by simulation studies. Finally a real data set from the Busselton Population Health Surveys is illustrated to validate the proposed methodology. The related proofs of the theorems are given in the Appendix.     

Signatures of series and parallel systems consisting of non disjoint modules

System signature is a useful tool to analyze coherent systems. In reliability theory, a large number of systems is actually the composition of disjoint subsystems (modules). However, in real life, there are situations in which the subsystems have common components. In this article, we consider the problem of obtaining signatures as well as minimal signatures of series and parallel systems that are composed of subsystems sharing a component. That is, these subsystems are no longer disjoint. Computational results are also presented to illustrate our findings.     

Inference for cumulative incidence on discrete failure times with competing risks

In the competing risks analysis, most inferences have been developed based on continuous failure time data. However, failure times are sometimes observed as being discrete. We propose nonparametric inferences for the cumulative incidence function for pure discrete data with competing risks. When covariate information is available, we propose semiparametric inferences for direct regression modelling of the cumulative incidence function for grouped discrete failure time data with competing risks. Simulation studies show that the procedures perform well. The proposed methods are illustrated with a study of contraceptive use in Indonesia.     

Going beyond a tale of two sectors: a reflective career planning toolkit for social work students

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to make the case that social work students would benefit from thinking beyond the binary of statutory sector vs voluntary sector when thinking about their future career. It argues instead that they should think in terms of their own philosophical worldview, their own preferences in terms of the mechanics of day-to-day practice, and the reasons for those preferences. Drawing on reflection literature, Johns’ Model of Reflection (2017) and an element of Motivational Interviewing, and informed by a value pluralist perspective, the paper sets out a reflective process for social work students to use. The process supports students firstly to explore their own core values and worldview, then to consider their feelings about more practical aspects of the social work role, and finally to find the connections and possible dissonances between the two. It is hoped that the article and the reflective process here advanced can contribute to students being able to plan for their professional futures in a way that does not depend principally on having to choose between statutory or voluntary sector practice, but on a much wider array of factors and values.