突发事件中人的脆弱性分析

突发事件发展成灾除受事件本身因素影响外,也与人类自身特性密切相关。众所周知,并非任一紧急事件都会演变成灾难,灾难的发生是诸多致灾因子共同作用的结果。因此,探讨突发事件成灾过程,应全面探讨各种可能起作用的致灾因子及各种致灾因子之间的联系。人类作为各种灾难的重要承灾体,自身拥有其不可忽视的脆弱性,而人的脆弱性又是突发事件演变成灾难的重要因素。所以,研究人的脆弱性问题,是灾害学研究的重要内容。人的脆弱性分析可以从人的易损性、承灾能力和暴露程度等方面进行。其中,易损性包括人的群体性、认知水平等;承灾能力包括意识水平、科技水平、肌体力量和系统功能、工程建筑结构等。针对人的脆弱性所应采取的防灾减灾措施主要有:提高人的认知水平、科技水平、意识水平;提高肌体力量,增强系统功能;改善工程建筑结构以及降低暴露程度等。     

Social Protection in the ‘Real World’: Issues,Models and Challenges

Social protection has evolved rapidly both conceptually and in practice, and is now a key policy issue in humanitarian and development debates. However, debates have sometimes been misled by approaches that pay inadequate attention to context‐specific factors, do not fully consider the sequence of interventions, and are too instrument‐centred. This article presents a conceptual framework to tailor social‐protection policy and implementation more closely to country contexts. Four stylised models of social protection are identified, corresponding to scenarios where social‐protection systems are absent, where elements of such systems exist, and where systems are emerging or have been consolidated. Each model is shown to lead to different challenges, implications and areas for further research.     

Young Clients of Hotel-Based Sex Workers in Bangladesh: Vulnerability to HIV,Risk Perceptions,and Expressed Needs for Interventions

ABSTRACT

A qualitative study was conducted among key informants and 53 young clients (15 to 24 years of age) of commercial sex workers from nine hotels in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Respondents reported first sexual encounter before 18 years of age, and reasons for purchasing sex were to prove masculinity or to reduce wet dreams and masturbation, thought to be detrimental to health. Limited knowledge of HIV and sexually transmitted infections was linked to high-risk sexual practices. Condom use was related to perceptions of cleanliness, status, and trust in the sex worker.

A hotel-based, confidential intervention program promoting safe sex practices among clients of sex workers is warranted.     

Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

A quantitative probabilistic/systems analysis model is described which is useful for allocating resources to safeguard valuable documents or materials in either a fixed-site facility or a moving convoy against an overt terrorist attack. The model is also useful for ranking the sensitive areas at a site according to their survivability of a given hypothesized terrorist attempt. To compare various defense strategies and security configurations, the probability of a successful terrorist activity is computed based on event tree models of the site/security configuration. This calculation incorporates a realistic engagement model (in the event a guard force engages the terrorists prior to completion of their objective) and information on barrier penetration times (for example, distribution of the time to defeat a chain link fence or vault door, traverse an open area, and so forth). Two security analyses are described to illustrate the methodology. One example considers a terrorist attack on a convoy transporting a missile from a storage to a launch facility. The second example involves an attack on a munitions storage facility.     

Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All-Hazards Framework

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.     

PFI项目特点对项目风险事件和脆弱性的影响

不同特点的项目需要不同的管理手段与之相匹配,这样才能有效的提高项目成功率.PFI是一种公私合营的项目运营方式.它的基本目标在于充分利用私有部门的资源来为公共部门项目提供优良的服务.在目前的文献中,还缺少对于PFI项目特点与项目成功(失败)之间关系的研究.对于PFI项目的特点在项目风险过程中所起的作用不是很清楚.通过分析5个英国PFI项目,本文识别出PFI项目的一些特点:新奇性、长期性、高复杂性、紧联结性、高度战略性、多目标性和严格的法律法规限制.本文提出PFI项目的这些特点在一定程度上与项目组织活动和管理活动相互作用,一方面提高了项目风险事件发生的概率,另一方面能够增加项目脆弱性.这些机制说明拥有这些特点的PFI项目需求很高的项目管理能力.     

European River Floods in a Changing World

Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains.     

非典危机中的民众脆弱性分析

非典型肺炎危机已经构成对我国政府和民众危机应对能力的重大挑战。令人担忧的是,民众在非典危机中的应对意识和应对能力均存在严重缺陷。文章首先阐释了民众脆弱性对于危机管理的影响,并分析民众脆弱性的几个表现;结合此次危机,剖析我国民众在危机意识和应对能力方面存在的问题;最后,提出了有关克服民众脆弱性问题的几点政策建议。     

Out of Sight,Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness

The persistent gap in flood risk awareness in Canada, and elsewhere in North America, is a continual source of worry for researchers and emergency managers; many people living in at‐risk places are simply unaware of risks and of their proximity to hazards. This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city's flood‐prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and costly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The article uses logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including the elevation of one's home relative to the river) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary's two rivers is also a significant predictor in some of the models, suggesting that the visibility of hazards matters for flood risk perception, although this effect fades when many of the geographic predictors are added. Finally, the models indicate that several variables related to local, neighborhood‐based social networks are significant as well. These findings reveal that both physical surroundings and social context are important for understanding risk awareness. The article concludes by discussing the relevance for social science research on disasters and hazards, as well as for planners and emergency managers.     

Spatial Vulnerability of Network Systems under Spatially Local Hazards

A hazard is often spatially local in a network system, but its impact can spread out through network topology and become global. To qualitatively and quantitatively assess the impact of spatially local hazards on network systems, this article develops a new spatial vulnerability model by taking into account hazard location, area covered by hazard, and impact of hazard (including direct impact and indirect impact), and proposes an absolute spatial vulnerability index (ASVI) and a relative spatial vulnerability index (RSVI). The relationship between the new model and some relevant traditional network properties is also analyzed. A case study on the spatial vulnerability of the Chinese civil aviation network system is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model, and another case study on the Beijing subway network system to verify its relationship with traditional network properties.