Linear Increments with Non‐monotone Missing Data and Measurement Error

Linear increments (LI) are used to analyse repeated outcome data with missing values. Previously, two LI methods have been proposed, one allowing non‐monotone missingness but not independent measurement error and one allowing independent measurement error but only monotone missingness. In both, it was suggested that the expected increment could depend on current outcome. We show that LI can allow non‐monotone missingness and either independent measurement error of unknown variance or dependence of expected increment on current outcome but not both. A popular alternative to LI is a multivariate normal model ignoring the missingness pattern. This gives consistent estimation when data are normally distributed and missing at random (MAR). We clarify the relation between MAR and the assumptions of LI and show that for continuous outcomes multivariate normal estimators are also consistent under (non‐MAR and non‐normal) assumptions not much stronger than those of LI. Moreover, when missingness is non‐monotone, they are typically more efficient.     

政府网络发言人制度的学理分析

近年来,伴随着社会民主政治的进步和网络传播的发展,各级政府越来越多地与网民直接对话,通过网络问政平台引导网络舆论,政府网络新闻发言人制度也正是在这样的背景下产生。     

Risk-Reducing Legal Documents: Controlling Personal Health and Financial Resources

Every adult can eliminate the risk of losing control of personal health decisions and financial resources by having a last will and testament, health proxy, power of attorney, and living trust. Yet evidence suggests that less than a majority of adult Americans have these documents. We surveyed 900 adult Americans (25 plus years old) to determine what factors predict the possession of these risk-reducing documents. In total, 46% had a living will and testament, 32% a durable power of attorney, 30% a health proxy, and 18% a living trust. Events that prompt people with wealth to secure these documents, such as increasing age, getting married, having children, and experiencing a life-threatening event were the strongest predictors of having a will. These were also among the strongest predictors of having a health proxy, along with a personal history of being proactive, and a family history that fostered trust of attorneys. Affluence, age, and education were the strongest predictors of having a living trust, and the strongest correlate of having a durable power of attorney was having faced a life-threatening event, positive experiences with attorneys, and higher educational achievement.     

非p:不可说者的逻辑原型——维特根斯坦逻辑哲学中的不可说者探析

不可说者实际上是一个否定问题,它与否定命题非p具有基本相同的逻辑形式,非p是不可说者的逻辑原型,不可说者是依据非p的形式和结构来构建的,因此,不可说者可以表示为"非可说者".不可说者的"不"既体现了"非"的逻辑否定特征,又具有重要的哲学意义,它是可说者和不可说者逻辑划界的手段,也是超越有限把握无限的独特方法,它与海德格尔"无"的形而上学有着本质的一致性.     

论特留份制度

规定特留份制度 ,目的在于保护缺乏劳动能力又没有生活来源的法定继承人的权益。我国继承法也规定了“必要的遗产份额” ,但存在着继承人范围过窄和份额规定不明的缺陷 ,因此作相应的修正非常必要。     

莎士比亚悲剧的宗教解读

莎士比亚悲剧形成的根本原因是无所不在的"恶",而"恶"源于人的自由意志。在悲剧中,莎士比亚一方面表现人的理性力量,另一方面也揭示了人的有限性和悲剧性处境。这种对人的本质的理解,与基督新教对人的本质理解是一致的。从莎士比亚悲剧中,我们可以看到他对基督教文化继承与发展的一面。     

略谈崔莺莺的“哀而不恨”

人 ,自降生以来 ,就陷入“自我”的重重矛盾之中 ,不仅面临“本我”的约束 ,还要应对“超我”的压力。如何做到既能满足“本我”的生理本能的需求 ,又能符合“超我”的道德化意愿 ,使自我得以完善 ,这是人们毕生所寻求的。研究唐代著名小说《莺莺传》中崔莺莺的艺术形象 ,破译其“哀而不恨”的密码 ,对于我们揭示这一人生主题具有积极的意义。     

西方主体性哲学从传统向现代的转变及其困境

人的主体性是现代社会的重要问题,在西方启蒙时代初期,人的主体性观念是以人的理性为基础建立的,人的理性与西方传统的上帝(超感性领域)观念相互交织,共同构成西方近代社会人的主体性观念。尼采的"上帝死了",打破了西方社会人的主体性观念的内在和谐,虽为人的存在注入了生命活力,但由于尼采彻底抛弃了西方传统的基督教道德及近代理性主义主体性哲学,致使他的以强力意志为基础的主体性哲学陷入反理性主义泥潭而无法自拔。挣脱了传统制约的现代西方人的主体性观念在为西方社会创造了丰富的物质财富的同时,也彻底打破了人与世界、现代与传统的和谐,从而使现代西方人处于"无家可归"的状态。海德格尔认为,应把人的主体性确立在追求人与自然、社会及现代与传统的内在和谐的基本范畴内才是合理的。     

和而不同：马克思主义哲学与中国传统哲学

"和而不同"是中国传统文化的本根与命脉所在。今天,它又是我们处理马克思主义哲学与中国传统哲学之关系的基本原则。马克思主义哲学无论是其产生、发展、传播,还是其中国化的每一步骤,都与中国传统哲学及其现代化有着某种独特的关联。确立"和而不同"的开放思维与包容心态,是马克思主义哲学中国化和中国传统哲学现代化的必要条件。     

尼采对历史及其历史教学的批判

尼采认为 ,历史是人的生命意志的反映 ,它是英雄人物在瞬间的艺术创作冲动的产物。人的历史开始于“个人具有创造性的自我解放欲望之际” ,这是尼采历史观的原始起点和意义支撑。他认为真正的历史应该有利于人的创造力的发挥和个体生命的解放 ,而现在的历史已经背离了历史的本来意义 ,成了生命发展的桎梏和障碍。现代历史教育是错误历史观与错误人生观相结合的产物 ,是一种摧残人性的教育 ,它使受教育者变得虚伪、迟缓、猜疑、抵触 ,并以软弱的人格、麻木的心态期待着刺激性“事件”的发生 ,哪怕它危及自己的生命。