Number needed to treat: properties and problems

Missing data can rarely be avoided in large scale studies in which subjects are requested to complete questionnaires with many items. Analyses of such surveys are often based on the records with no missing items, resulting in a loss of efficiency and, when data are missing not at random, in bias. This paper applies the method of multiple imputation to handle missing data in an analysis of alcohol consumption of the subjects in the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development. The outcomes studied are derived from the entries in diaries of food and drink intake over seven designated days. Background variables and other responses related to alcohol consumption and associated problems are used as collateral information. In conventional analyses, subpopulation means of quantities of alcohol consumed are compared. Since we are interested in the harmful effects of alcohol, we make inferences about the percentages of those who consume more than a given quantity of net alcohol. We assess the contribution to the analyses made by the incomplete records and outline a more integrated way of applying multiple imputation in large scale longitudinal surveys.     

人类意志的悖论:《修道院纪事》主题论

《修道院纪事》是葡萄牙著名作家萨马拉戈的代表作,小说以魔幻现实主义的手法深刻揭示了人类自由意志与专制意志间的悖论。作家以寓言的方式表达了对专制独裁的憎恨与咀咒,并对封建宗教的反动本质进行了揭露与批判。作家在真诚呼唤平等与自由的同时也告诫人们应该珍惜自己的自由意志。     

女性散文中的母女关系解析——以《亲情解析》《我有这样一个母亲》为例

对母女关系的书写是女性散文的一个重要内容。《亲情解析》、《我有这样一个母亲》以对母女之间亲情不亲的疏离关系为表现对象,敞开了母亲作为人作为女人的真实生存处境及其人格畸变状态。亲情不亲往往表现为女儿对陷于不合习俗母性的怨仇或仇恨心理的母亲的冷漠排斥,母亲的怨仇心理仇恨心理本质上是女性发现自己付出全部所依附的对象却空洞无力不足依凭后极度绝望空虚的流露。《亲情解析》、《我有这样一个母亲》中作者对母亲之为母亲的母性和母亲作为女人的人性的思考,使得如何理解并超越母亲的命运,如何将习俗母性中所包含的爱的因子转化为建设性的人格因子,成为女性散文提出的一个关乎我们每个人的问题。     

完善我国刑事简易程序的思考

我国新刑事诉讼法确立了统一的简易程序,这对于促进案件繁简分流,提高诉讼效率,节约司法成本有重大意义。然而,简易程序在被告人自愿性保障、量刑优惠、程序的转化、公诉人出庭的规定等方面存在着一定的不足,应当进一步完善被告人自愿性的保障机制,明确选择简易程序的量刑标准,具体规定简易程序转为普通程序的情形,充分发挥庭前会议的作用,有效衔接简易案件的开庭审理。     

《终身大事》与《李永女》的比较研究

胡适的<终身大事>与金镇的<李永女>是中韩两国第一部社会问题剧.尽管两位作家之间没有直接的影响关系,但两部作品出现了相同的文学现象.两部作品的女主人公在各自追求婚姻自由和人性解放的过程中极力想摆脱封建礼教和男人的玩偶地位.在危机中主人公自觉意志的实现,决定了两部作品的不同表现方法.     

帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪的规范属性与解释纠偏

信息技术的发展推动网络犯罪参与结构由传统犯罪层级式的金字塔结构向扁平式的链条结构转变,使得立法增设帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪以应对犯罪参与模式的改变,解决网络犯罪行为不适应传统共同犯罪理论的难题。立法者增设帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪以规制“不契合共犯理论的帮助行为”,但未就帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪的性质加以说明。理论界关于该罪性质的探讨主要着眼于共犯性的视角,但是以共犯性解释该罪的性质又会产生正犯不存在或者难以查证时归责标准阙如、意思联络趋弱而难以认定共犯、共犯与正犯危害性异化致使按照共犯理论归责违背罪刑均衡原则等适用困境。量刑规则说、共犯正犯化等以完全共犯性为着力点的学说,忽视了帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪的正犯属性,造成了适用困境并违背了对该罪的立法初衷。故此,跳出传统的对罪名性质解释单一的桎梏,承认部分帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪的正犯性,根据“契合共犯理论的帮助行为”与“不契合共犯理论的帮助行为”的不同,在“共犯性”与“正犯性”双重视角下区分认定该罪的性质,使得同一罪名在不同的适用情形下呈现动态的性质解读,以突破现有理论的适用困境。这对于契合司法实务向多元性与不可预测性发展,应对因传统刑法理论相对滞后而导致适用冲突不断的现实难题,对纠偏帮助信息网络犯罪活动罪的适用等,尤为必要。     

A rejoinder to "The impact of infectious diseases on remittances inflows to India"

We argue that the volume of remittances sent home by migrants is influenced by the exogenous likelihood that the duration of their migration will be cut short. A higher probability of reverse migration, brought about by the collapse of jobs in the wake of COVID-19, made migrants attach greater importance to the creation of a social and economic environment in their places of origin that can support them when they return. There are several ways in which this can be done. One is by instilling gratitude. When bigger remittances are responded to by greater gratitude, the support will be bigger. An impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on migrants’ perceived duration of their migration is an increase in the uncertainty of the duration. The good will of migrants’ families and communities at origin is a form of insurance. A standard response to uncertainty is to take out insurance, and when uncertainty is higher, insurance is more valuable, and there is a tendency to acquire more of it. As it happens, the link between the volume of remittances and the likelihood of return migration does not feature at all in Shastri’s (2022) paper, nor for that matter in related writings by the World Bank and the IMF. The purpose of this rejoinder is to draw attention to this link, inducing students of migrants’ remittances to explore the link.     

Autonomous Agency in Anti-Dualistic Social Ontologies: A Compatibilist Notion

Anti-dualistic social ontologies, those highlighting the intrinsic interdependency of agency and structure as two sides of the same coin, are sometimes criticized for failing to provide a satisfactory account of autonomous – capable and free – agency, or even denying the reality of such agency. This paper contests these claims, arguing that anti-dualistic ontologies only conflict with autonomous agency when the latter is understood in a highly voluntaristic sense, whose ideational roots go to what philosophers of free will call “incompatibilist” intuitions of freedom. Those intuitions suggest that actions (intentions, decisions) ultimately determined by extrinsic causes lack the kind of freedom presupposed by moral responsibility, so when agentive autonomy is presumed to involve such freedom, it does indeed cohere poorly with the anti-dualistic picture of intrinsically structured agency. Herein, however, an alternative, “compatibilist” notion of autonomy is advanced, such that does not conflict with extrinsic determination and is therefore congruent with anti-dualistic social ontologies.     

初唐谏文的尚道精神

初唐谏文围绕重大历史事件及重要国策,针对君主的决策提出异议、进行谏止乃至抨击,臣不从君的现象非常突出。进谏者将君道而不是君主奉为最高权威,体现出尚道精神。谏文依据儒家仁政、王道的思想,执经力谏,广引六经及孔子之言,以经旨为论点,且将其作为论证技巧中的核心理论支柱,尤其是首尾的引用,作用更为明显。魏徵“良臣”之论对君臣之义的探索,发展了传统的“臣道”说,诠释了尚道精神的深层内涵。     

不同专业学生对中药词汇的认知度对比研究

选取400个常见中药词汇,请中医药相关专业学生与非中医药相关专业学生评定中药词汇的各项语义性质,探讨中药词汇的语义性质及其相互作用的关系。结果表明,中药词汇的语义性质两两之间存在显著的正相关。回归分析表明,熟悉性和可表象性是影响中药词汇可理解性的主要因素;熟悉性是影响非中医药专业学生对中药词汇的隐喻性判断的主要因素,但并非影响中医药相关专业学生对中药词汇判断的主要因素;可表象性是影响中医药语料隐喻性判断的主要因素。