从2010年美国人口普查数据看当前美国种族关系现状

进入21世纪后,美国人口结构发生了巨大的变化,2010年人口普查数据显示出美国正处在人口发展的历史转折点,少数族裔人口增加,拉美裔成为美国第一大少数族裔。与此同时,白人不仅人口数量增长缓慢,而且老龄化严重。这种人口结构的变化将对美国政治、社会、文化等方面产生巨大的影响。年轻人是国家的未来,少数族裔年轻人(18岁以下),尤其是拉美裔青年人数的增加,将给美国的教育和经济发展等带来新的问题和挑战,而且他们的投票取向也将直接影响到政治版图的变化,这种影响将随着他们的成长和进入社会,逐步显现出来。     

Link-tracing sampling with an initial sequential sample of sites: Estimating the size of a hidden human population

We proposed a modification to the variant of link-tracing sampling suggested by Félix-Medina and Thompson [M.H. Félix-Medina, S.K. Thompson, Combining cluster sampling and link-tracing sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations, Journal of Official Statistics 20 (2004) 19–38] that allows the researcher to have certain control of the final sample size, precision of the estimates or other characteristics of the sample that the researcher is interested in controlling. We achieve this goal by selecting an initial sequential sample of sites instead of an initial simple random sample of sites as those authors suggested. We estimate the population size by means of the maximum likelihood estimators suggested by the above-mentioned authors or by the Bayesian estimators proposed by Félix-Medina and Monjardin [M.H. Félix-Medina, P.E. Monjardin, Combining link-tracing sampling and cluster sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations: A Bayesian-assisted approach, Survey Methodology 32 (2006) 187–195]. Variances are estimated by means of jackknife and bootstrap estimators as well as by the delta estimators proposed in the two above-mentioned papers. Interval estimates of the population size are obtained by means of Wald and bootstrap confidence intervals. The results of an exploratory simulation study indicate good performance of the proposed sampling strategy.     

西方“超老化观感”研究述评

“：超老化观感”在本质上反映了一个元观念的转变①，即从一个物质的和理性的世界观转向一个更超越自然的世界观，并且通常伴随着生活满意度的增加；这一转变经历了在自然、自我、社会与个人的关系这三个方面的变化；其关键特征有追求沉思与积极独处、高度自我控制的活动与高生活满意度和获得成熟与智慧；其发展受年龄、性别、种族、生活环境或文化背景等多重因素的影响“。超老化观感”理论在护理、心理咨询、教育等多个领域有独特的实践应用价值，因而，加强该理论的本土化研究将对我国老年学学科建设及老龄事业的发展有重大的指导意义。     

青岛市人口迁移特征及其对经济增长的影响

改革开放以来青岛市一直保持着人口净迁入的态势,人口净迁移率不但很高,而且一直在快速递增.同时,通过实证分析可知,青岛市的人均产出与人口净迁移之间存在很高的正相关性,净迁移人口对经济增长具有显著的影响.据此可以判定:随着青岛市经济的高速持续增长,同时随着户籍制度改革的不断深化,可以预计在今后较长的一个时期内,青岛还会继续保持较高的人口净迁入,并由此对经济发展产生积极的促进作用.     

西部地区社会保障体系的模式设计与理论创新

西部地区的经济发展需要社会保障制度为其构筑一道“安全网”。回顾西部地区社会保障的发展历史，从社会保障中几个重要指标出发对西部地区社会保障制度作出绩效评估、分析其原因，并且提出西部地区建立覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系的基本框架、实现路径、步骤与措施。     

A Pastoral Understanding of Positive Aging

Abstract

Positive aging may be more dependent on spiritual well-being than physical capacity. Understanding the spiritual perspective derives from the dichotomy between the “perceptual” and the “spiritual” realms of human awareness. Awareness of spiritual process in relationship to positive aging may also offer counseling additional challenges and opportunities, including: a balanced perspective on life issues, a sense of humor, counter-factual thinking, internal strengths and resources for growing through life losses and crises, and compensation skills that focus on current capacity and chosen pathways rather than dwelling on lost abilities.     

The Effects of Nursing Home Placement on the Perceived Levels of Caregiver Burden

Providing care for an aging parent can be one of the most fulfilling life experiences for an adult child. It can also be one of the most exhausting physically, emotionally, and financially. A caregiver experiences psychological and emotional changes when their dependent parent or spouse is placed into formal care. This research project uses the Montgomery Borgatta Caregiver Burden Scale, amended with a questionnaire, in a self-administered, anonymous survey to explore perceptions of caregiving burden before and after the nursing home placement periods. This research showed that numerous factors influence caregivers' perceptions of burden and the quality of relationships among family members.     

Compter : l’invention de la statistique des fonctionnaires en France (1890-1930)

Civil servant statistics in France were invented on the margins of the state during the period from 1890 to 1930. This invention came out of activist and/or professional rationales that were desynchronized with the drafting or application of polices for reducing the number of government employees. There were three successive phases. At the dawn of the xx^th century, civil servants were counted in order to inveigh against “functionarism” and “depopulation”. During the decade before World War I, counting them was a matter of improving the expertise of statisticians. Between the two World Wars, sharp cuts were made in personnel, while civil service statistics were held in abeyance. By focusing on how civil servant statistics have been produced and used, the approach proposed herein sheds new light on a persistent but paradoxical discourse in France that ignores how many civil servants there are while claiming that there are too many.     

The Pursuit of Continuous Improvement in the Field of Intergenerational Relationships: The Discipline of the Second Curve

This article presents a case for the field of intergenerational relationships to embrace the challenges associated with progressing its reputation, boundaries, and potential in the twenty-first century. The concept of the Sigmoid curve based upon curvilinear logic and the discipline of the second curve is introduced as a means of understanding how individuals, organizations, and institutions need to deal with the challenge of constant renewal as a consequence of rapid social change. The field of intergenerational relationships is challenged to align itself with the discipline of the second curve by (1) improving the impact of research through knowledge-based transfer and (2) exploring new fields of inquiry in the interest of maintaining and advancing relevance and legitimacy.     

Perceptions of Benzodiazepine Dependence Among Women Age 65 and Older

A phenomenological study explored whether older women who are chronic benzodiazepine users identified themselves as dependent, how dependence was perceived, and how meanings and understandings shaped experiences of benzodiazepine use. Self-reported benzodiazepine dependence was associated with being unable to reduce use or a desire to discontinue use and reliance on benzodiazepines to remain comfortable and able to handle daily life. Themes included: (a) benzodiazepine dependence is similar to dependence to diabetes or blood pressure medications; (b) dependence is distinctive from addiction/abuse; (c) addiction/abuse is perceived as worse than dependence; and (d) concerns of addiction/abuse result in low-dose benzodiazepine use.