Trust and health in Eastern Europe: Conceptions of a new society

Little attention has been paid to why trends and levels of mortality and morbidity differ in Eastern Europe and few studies have addressed people's own perceptions of their new political system – perceptions which per se may be important for social development. The aim of the present study was to analyse the extent to which trust and economic circumstances affect self‐rated health in Poland, Estonia and Russia and how much health differences between the countries can be explained by these factors. A better economy and higher trust were related to better individual health, while economic factors seemed most important for inter‐country differences. It is probable that both institutional factors and individual perceptions contribute to people's well‐being, but in terms of social policy, an improved welfare system may be the most effective way forward.     

RESEARCHING RELATIONSHIPS FROM AN ATTACHMENT PERSPECTIVE: THE USE OF BEHAVIOURAL,INTERVIEW, SELF‐REPORT AND PROJECTIVE MEASURES

Having demonstrated its credentials as one of the more elegant and robust conceptualisations of human relationships, attachment theory has considerable relevance to social work. Attachment‐based research has flourished over the past few years and it now includes an impressive array of studies across the lifespan. This article considers four different measures used in attachment‐based research, although more discussion is devoted to interview and projective measures because they specifically embrace a psychodynamic approach in their design and analytic focus. The aim of the article is to provide a brief overview of each measure and to offer some illustrative examples using practice‐related material.     

分层教学中分层基础的确立——基于皮亚杰的认知发展阶段理论

分层教学是指将学生按照一定的分层基础分成不同的层次进行差别化教学的教学形式,通过分层教学可以更好的满足学生的个性化发展,让每个学生以自己最佳的学习状态完成学校要求的学习内容,但是以往的分层教学中的分层基础有很多的弊端,无论是班内分层还是混班分层虽然解决了部分问题,但是却带来了很多其他由于分层基础带来的学习问题。所以,通过借鉴皮亚杰的认知发展阶段理论,将其作为分层教学的分层基础依据,能够更好地适应学生身心发展条件,科学合理的将分层教学有效地运用与发展。     

Estimation of variance in bivariate normal distribution after the preliminary test of homogeneity

A preliminary test estimator of variance in the bivariate normal distribution is proposed after the Pitman–Morgan test of homogeneity of two variances. The bias and mean square error of the estimator are derived. The relative efficiency (RE) of the preliminary test estimator is studied. Computations and 3D graphs of RE for different parameters are analyzed. In order to get the maximum RE, recommendations of the significance level for the preliminary test are given for various sample sizes by using the max–min criterion.     

Limit theorems for dependent Bernoulli variables with statistical inference

We consider a class of dependent Bernoulli variables where the conditional success probability is a linear combination of the last few trials and the original success probability. We obtain its limit theorems including the strong law of large numbers, weak invariance principle, and law of the iterated logarithm. We also derive some statistical inference results which make the model applicable. Simulation results are exhibited as well to show that with small sample size the convergence rate is satisfying and the proposed estimators behave well.     

Attenuating Initial Beliefs: Increasing the Acceptance of Anthropogenic Climate Change Information by Reflecting on Values

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self‐affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self‐affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts.     

Building a partnership for social service delivery in Indonesia: state and faith‐based organisations

Contrary to the secularisation processes in modernisation theory, religions and faith‐based organisations (FBOs) are thriving in contemporary Indonesia. Strongly supported by community members, religious organisations have begun to extend their services beyond the traditional areas of education and health to operate in disaster relief and poverty alleviation programmes. These FBOs have been offering assistance to the disadvantaged whose needs have not been adequately met by the state. Social programmes run by the FBOs are an important safety net at the grass‐roots level in Indonesia; how to effectively coordinate and offer such services are important social policy issues. This paper will show that the Indonesian Government is keen to remain the key provider of social services and often perceives the services of FBOs as a threat. Some recent state policies to regulate the funding sources of Islamic organisations have posed a significant logistical challenge for their future operation. In addition, theological differences across various religious groups have made it difficult to form inclusive and extensive partnerships among the FBOs, who tend to compete with each another resulting in rivalry. These socio‐political contexts have limited the formation of effective partnerships for offering coordinated social services.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

Agreement and discrepancy between children,parents, and social workers on school‐based effort avoidance in child welfare services

A multiperspective approach is beneficial for obtaining reliable and multifaceted pictures of child behaviour problems. The goal of the present study is to examine interrater agreement on school‐based effort avoidance between children receiving child welfare services, parents, and social workers. Given previous findings, interrater agreement is expected to be low. Self‐reported data on school‐based effort avoidance were gathered for children and adolescents in child welfare services. Additionally, social workers (using the Teacher‐Report Checklist for social and learning behaviour) and parents (using the parallel version of the self‐rating questionnaire on school‐based effort avoidance) were asked to complete an external assessment tool to compare children's perspectives with the ratings of significant adults. The results confirmed significant discrepancies between parents' and children's ratings on effort avoidance tendencies. Furthermore, there were only small to moderate correlations between children's self‐ratings and the adults' assessments; however, the consensus between adults was higher than the interrater agreement between children and social workers. Discrepancies in ratings from multiple informants underline the importance of integrating multiple perspectives, especially children's perspectives, in the diagnostic process in order to plan and adapt appropriate care and treatment.     

Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.