双序结合整体教育改革及其本质特征

循序渐进原则是有效实施教育和教学的最根本原则。教育　改　革要从这一根本原则出发，从儿童心理发展序列和学科知识逻辑序列的最佳结合入手，从　整体着眼，全面改革中小学的教育和教学。双序结合整体教育改革的本质特征可概括为：系　统整体性；适时教育性；高速有效性；最优发展性。     

Girls’ Jobs for the Boys? Men,Masculinity and Non‐Traditional Occupations

Occupational segregation by sex remains the most pervasive aspect of the labour market. In the past, most research on this topic has concentrated on explanations of women’s segregation into low paid and low status occupations, or investigations of women who have crossed gender boundaries into men’s jobs, and the potential impact on them and the occupations. In contrast, this article reports on a small‐scale, qualitative study of ten men who have crossed into what are generally defined as ‘women’s jobs’. In doing so, one of the impacts on them has been that they have experienced challenges to their masculine identity from various sources and in a variety of ways. The men’s reactions to these challenges, and their strategies for developing and accommodating their masculinity in light of these challenges, are illuminating. They either attempted to maintain a traditional masculinity by distancing themselves from female colleagues, and/or partially (re)constructed a different masculinity by identifying with their non‐traditional occupations. This they did as often as they deemed necessary as a response to different forms of challenge to their gender identities from both men and women. Finally, the article argues that these responses work to maintain the men as the dominant gender, even in these traditionally defined ‘women’s jobs’.     

从中西比较的视角论说中国古代宗教信仰与历史的关系

宗教的起源和发展一直是古史研究的重要课题之一。北京师范大学历史学院的古史研究者对古代的宗教与社会问题进行了长期探索,这里发表的五篇文章分别表达了研究者在这个问题上的见解:刘家和认为,比较研究还应继续做同中察异的工作,就宗教与历史之关系而言,中国的三代与古代希腊、罗马本来各不相同;但不论前者的邦国,还是后者的城邦,都有自己的守护之神,这点又是相同的;可是在此之上,前者还有天或皇天上帝,后者则无,原因之一是由于前者在地上有最高的天下共主,而后者则无。杨共乐认为,敬重神灵,墨守礼仪,以敬神束缚民众,以礼仪统一思想,是罗马早期宗教具有的明显的目的性;敬仰民族神明,宽容外邦神灵,又使罗马的宗教传统具有鲜明的独特性和开放性;早期罗马的宗教传统是多神崇拜但有秩序,宽容外神但有原则,主要表现在新的外神从未渗透到罗马旧有宗教的核心,后者一直保持着主导地位。刘林海指出,基督教最初并非罗马的唯一选择,其优势是在历史过程中逐步确立的;罗马传统宗教自我更新的失败则把基督教推向了国教的地位。蒋重跃对《新约》的道德金规则与《论语》的忠恕思想做了比较研究,认为两者都主张博爱。但《新约》的金规则只有肯定式的表达,因为基督教的博爱来自上帝,上帝是无限的,上帝的爱也要无限地向外推出去;《论语》的忠恕思想则既有肯定式,也有否定式的表达,由于儒家的博爱来自人自身,人是有限的,所以人类之爱既可向外推出去,又要向内加以限制。这是二者最根本的差异。王献华在分析雅各布森的相关作品的基础上认为,对早期两河流域宗教的研究和对早期两河流域社会与文化的历史研究必须是合二为一的学术进程;在早期两河流域宗教研究中,神灵史的路径可以认为是下一阶段的学术方向。     

Nonresponse weighting adjustment using estimated response probability

To reduce nonresponse bias in sample surveys, a method of nonresponse weighting adjustment is often used which consists of multiplying the sampling weight of the respondent by the inverse of the estimated response probability. The authors examine the asymptotic properties of this estimator. They prove that it is generally more efficient than an estimator which uses the true response probability, provided that the parameters which govern this probability are estimated by maximum likelihood. The authors discuss variance estimation methods that account for the effect of using the estimated response probability; they compare their performances in a small simulation study. They also discuss extensions to the regression estimator.     

STTEPping in the right direction? Western classical music in an orchestral programme for disadvantaged African youth

This article looks at STTEP, an outreach project currently housed at the University of Pretoria, which concentrates on the teaching of western orchestral instruments, plus background areas such as music theory, to disadvantaged children and youth from a variety of townships around Pretoria, South Africa. STTEP’s direction can well be described as ‘right’ – pupils are already surrounded by all kinds of global phenomena, and their formal music studies in western classical music are not making them forget their roots. In fact, the contrary has been found to be the case and some interesting cultural fusions are already seen – always a sign of a living culture.     

词汇扩展的教学过程、方法及其建议

在《分阶段有重点英语教学模式》课题研究的基础上 ,对第二阶段即词汇扩展阶段的教学进行研究 ,认为 :首先要从理念上纠正学生对“记单词”的看法和认识 ,然后在教学过程中注重引进一些有效的方法 ,以启发和督促学生 ,使这一阶段的教学更有效和更有启发性。     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

Model diagnostics for smoothing spline ANOVA models

The author proposes some simple diagnostics for assessing the necessity of selected terms in smoothing spline ANOVA models. The elimination of practically insignificant terms generally enhances the interpretability of the estimates and sometimes may also have inferential implications. The diagnostics are derived from Kullback‐Leibler geometry and are illustrated in the settings of regression, probability density estimation, and hazard rate estimation.     

Issues in applying recent CPMP ‘Points to Consider’ and FDA guidance documents with biostatistical implications

The International Conference on Harmonisation guideline ‘Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials’ was adopted by the Committee for Proprietary Medicinal Products (CPMP) in March 1998, and consequently is operational in Europe. Since then more detailed guidance on selected topics has been issued by the CPMP in the form of ‘Points to Consider’ documents. The intent of these was to give guidance particularly to non‐statistical reviewers within regulatory authorities, although of course they also provide a good source of information for pharmaceutical industry statisticians. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration has recently issued a draft guideline on data monitoring committees. In November 2002 a one‐day discussion forum was held in London by Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (PSI). The aim of the meeting was to discuss how statisticians were responding to some of the issues covered in these new guidelines, and to document consensus views where they existed. The forum was attended by industry, academic and regulatory statisticians. This paper outlines the questions raised, resulting discussions and consensus views reached. It is clear from the guidelines and discussions at the workshop that the statistical analysis strategy must be planned during the design phase of a clinical trial and carefully documented. Once the study is complete the analysis strategy should be thoughtfully executed and the findings reported. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

义务教育乡镇管理体制评析

由于乡镇的财力单薄,管理水平偏低,管理心态失衡,乡镇政府难以有效管理本乡镇义务教育。改革义务教育乡镇管理体制,必须废除监护人直接支付的筹资方式,实行税收统筹分拨的筹资方式,建立省、县、乡三级义务教育管理体制,从经济上保证儿童受教育的权利。