公司运营危机预警模型的比较研究——以中国上市公司为例

研究当前国内外公司运营危机预警问题的现状,首先要寻找一套适合于我国上市公司的财务状况识别指标体系,然后依据该指标体系采用不同方法建立运营危机预警模型,最后利用样本公司实际指标数据对各个模型的短期及中期预警效果进行比较分析与实证研究。结果表明,分类树模型的三年期预警准确率都在80%以上。     

Multiple-class classification: Ordinal and categorical labels

We study multiple-class classification problems. Both ordinal and categorical labeled cases are discussed. The common approaches for multiple-class classification are built on binary classifiers, in which one-versus-one and one-versus-rest are typical approaches. When the number of classes is large, then these binary-classifier-based methods may suffer from either computational costs or the highly imbalanced sample sizes in their training stage. In order to alleviate the computational burden and the imbalanced training data issue in multiple-class classification problems, we propose a method that has competitive performance and retains the ease of model interpretation, which is essential for a prognostic/predictive model.     

论广州城市生活垃圾治理的战略取向

现代城市垃圾治理是一项复杂的系统工程。在城市垃圾中,生活垃圾所占比重大、与民众联系密切且处理阻力大,对城市生活垃圾治理的战略设计已成为城市管理者面临的最大难题之一。作为我国重要中心城市的广州,也正面临形势严峻的"垃圾围城"之困,自2012年开启新一轮城市生活垃圾综合治理以来,在有创新、有收获的同时也遇到了新的挑战。为进一步深化城市生活垃圾治理工作,广州应准确把脉顶层制度难"落地"、流程运行难系统、民众习惯难转变等现实症结,科学设计生活垃圾的多元共治路径,实现挑战与机遇的对接,为我国城市生活垃圾的治理树立标杆,助推开创城市垃圾治理的新局面。     

布朗族民族文化资源信息化初探

近年来,云南人口较少民族经济发展与文化保护的矛盾日益凸显,民族地区的文化生境不断遭受破坏;加上人口较少民族的价值观念逐渐发生变化,非物质文化遗产传承人出现断层等问题,人口较少民族文化保护形势严峻。云南布朗族在应用信息化手段保护民族文化方面有很好的实践。布朗文化遗产可数字化资源划分为实体和物质文化遗产与口头和非物质文化遗产两大类。按照三级指标评价模型,结合可数字化文化资源的特点,首先聘请专家依据＂可数字化资源评价赋分标准＂对布朗族民族文化资源进行打分,并采用微积分运算公式计算出三级指标的综合评价值,根据最终评价得分来评判布朗族民族文化资源是否具有可数字化的价值。然后,对文化资源进行数字化采集,综合采用静态数字化技术、动态数字化技术和三维数字技术,按照文本数字化、图像数字化、三维图像建立、虚拟物品制作四个数字化级别来进行信息化处理。     

试述北魏宗室阶层的犯罪类型

北魏宗室阶层是政权的柱石、统治集团的核心,在政治和社会领域里享受充分的特权,北魏时期的法律反映了宗室特权的主要方面.由于拓跋鲜卑历经由游牧部落向文明国家阶段的跃进,宗室成员在身份角色的转换过程中不可避免地会与国家法制和名教礼法发生冲突,表现为具体的犯罪行为.北魏宗室非违主要有政治犯罪、职务犯罪、刑事犯罪和悖逆纲常伦理四类.各类罪行的时间分布特点和惩治力度集中反映出宗室生存境遇的改变和王朝政局的走势.     

Aggregating classifiers via Rademacher–Walsh polynomials

Methods are proposed to combine several individual classifiers in order to develop more accurate classification rules. The proposed algorithm uses Rademacher–Walsh polynomials to combine M (≥2) individual classifiers in a nonlinear way. The resulting classifier is optimal in the sense that its misclassification error rate is always less than, or equal to, that of each constituent classifier. A number of numerical examples (based on both real and simulated data) are also given. These examples demonstrate some new, and far-reaching, benefits of working with combined classifiers.     

现代学科分类中的“文学人类学”

从现代学科分类情况来看,"文学人类学"主要被放置在人类学、比较文学、文艺学三个学科里,成为三个学科的亚分支,这反映了"文学人类学"目前的现实状况及地位。本文无意争辩学科从属的问题,而是从知识话语学角度探讨现代学科分类体系对"文学人类学"可能造成的遮蔽性。     

Model-based clustering of multivariate skew data with circular components and missing values

Motivated by classification issues that arise in marine studies, we propose a latent-class mixture model for the unsupervised classification of incomplete quadrivariate data with two linear and two circular components. The model integrates bivariate circular densities and bivariate skew normal densities to capture the association between toroidal clusters of bivariate circular observations and planar clusters of bivariate linear observations. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the model is facilitated by an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm that treats unknown class membership and missing values as different sources of incomplete information. The model is exploited on hourly observations of wind speed and direction and wave height and direction to identify a number of sea regimes, which represent specific distributional shapes that the data take under environmental latent conditions.     

城市空间关系问题研究——以黄冈与武汉城市圈内周边城市空间关系为例

城市化的快速发展使得城市空间关系不断变化，如何准确界定城市空间关系对城市战略选择至关重要。本文在总结前人对城市空间关系研究的基础上，将城市空间关系分为依附型、竞争型、共生型、异质型四种。进而在此基础上以黄冈为案例，研究黄冈与武汉城市圈内周边城市的关系，并提出黄冈的定位和发展战略。