Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

劳动力转移的困境和挑战——基于对凉山彝族外出务工人员困境的思考

目前，在凉山彝区，外出务工是劳动力转移的主要方式，许多家庭通过外出务工脱贫致富。在当地无力承担和消化剩余劳动力的情况下，外出务工的现象将长期存在，正确认识彝区劳动力转移的合理性非常必要。为此笔者对四川凉山的冕宁、盐源等地彝区外出务工人员较多的村寨通过田野调查方式，了解当地劳动力转移的历史和现状，掌握存在的问题并分析其原因，提出解决思路和具体措施。应该建立劳动力转移的社会支持系统，继续不懈地积极推进劳动力转移工作。继续加大各级职业技术教育，增强劳动力转移的市场竞争力。加强法制教育，促进用人机构和彝族群众增强法制意识，依法促进彝族务工者的城市融入。进一步强化乡镇劳务开发工作体系建设,加强跨区域合作,倡导有序输出，规范对劳务经纪人的管理,强化劳务培训质量，提高彝族务工人员素质,保护彝族务工人员的合法益。     

Romanian social workers facing the challenges of neo-liberalism

ABSTRACT

With a history of almost 90 years, professional social work in Romania once flourished up until World War II. The Communist Party disbanded the profession in 1968 and it was reinstated after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989. Within the context of the socio-economic transition from a centralised to a free-market economy, Romanian social policy and social work have evolved from a Marxist/socialist-type ideology, one that advocates for state intervention, to a libertarian/neo-liberal-type ideology, which promotes both state withdrawal from welfare provision and individuals taking responsibility for their own welfare. These two trends continue to co-exist subject to sometimes divergent forces such as international institutions and internal Romanian social pressures. Using a qualitative approach, we explore how Romanian social workers are adapting to the neo-liberal realities and identify three types of perceived challenges: 1. those related to regulation, 2. linked with collaboration in social work activity and 3. those related to the social worker-client relationship. Under neo-liberal pressures, the social worker's role of agent of social change becomes marginalised in daily practice, leaving little power to influence agency policies that negatively impact clients.     

教育时空拓展:教师专业成长的机遇与挑战

随着人类文明的进步、社会的发展以及信息技术的普及，教育时间和空间得到迅速拓展。教育时空拓展正如一把双刃剑，给教育活动的实施带来机遇的同时也带来了挑战。教师作为教育活动的主要组织者和实施者，在享受机遇的同时也要迎接教育时空拓展所带来的挑战。通过分析教育时空拓展的内涵与表征，发现教师专业成长正处在社会化、终身化与数字化的发展大潮中，因此教师要充分利用好教育时空拓展带来的机遇，同时慎重应对由此面临的挑战，不断提高应变能力，以促进教师专业成长和教育事业的发展。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

与国际行政法的产生有关的几个基本问题——基于全球化、全球治理的视角

全球治理的提出源于全球化的推动,而全球治理的提出及实践则使国际行政法的产生、形成成为可能。具体而言,全球公民社会的兴起与国际非政府组织的发展是国际行政法产生的两个现实驱动因素。国际行政法的产生路径可总结为"自下而上"和"自上而下"的路径。国际行政法具有区别于国内行政法的若干明显特征,国际层面相比国内层面的很多特殊性也使得国际行政法的体系化发展面临诸多挑战。这些问题虽然不能忽视,但它们也并非不可克服。虽然国际行政法不如国内行政法成熟,但是如能改进合法性,便能够将超国家机构的全球治理职能发挥得更好。全球治理语境下国际行政法体系的产生、形成是一种历史的必然趋势。     

微博时代我国主流意识形态面临的发展格局、挑战及其对策

微博时代,我国主流意识形态面临的机遇和挑战并存。微博的迅猛发展和强大功能,进一步拓展了我国主流意识形态的发展空间,深刻地改变了我国主流意识形态的发展格局。同时,微博也成为各种意识形态争夺的阵地;微博蕴含的政治力量挑战了国家的政治议程;微博谣言泛滥消弱了民众对我国主流价值观的认同。这些都给我国主流意识形态建设带来严峻的挑战。对此,我国主流意识形态必须有所作为,对微博的负面效应进行有效的制度化解和积极应对,确保我国主流意识形态建设稳定、持续、健康的发展。     

Relationship building and message planning: An exploration of media challenges and strategies used during school crises at the P-12 level

Schools at the P-12 level increasingly face crises related to school shootings, violence, and other tragedies. Understanding the communication challenges schools face is paramount to assisting schools with communication before, during, and after crisis events. The current study focuses on the challenges created by media interest in such crises and the strategies implemented to overcome these challenges and provide responsible information to stakeholders. Interviews conducted with 21 school crisis teams at the P-12 level revealed that sensationalism, seeking alternative routes to information, and framing were key challenges in working with the media. In light of these challenges, administrators focused on creating media plans, building relationships with the media, being accurate but guarded, and communicating reassurance and reunification. Implications are discussed for school districts nationally.     

晚清政府在新疆治理面临的危机与挑战

由于晚清政府在新疆治理措施的日趋腐败,出现经费紧缺、民众起义、沙俄入侵等情形,使新疆自清朝统一之后出现的六、七十年的稳定局面产生了严重的危机,使清朝政府在新疆的统治面临严峻的挑战。后虽经爱国官兵的努力平复新疆,但原先治理新疆的军府制度难以为继,进而调整为与内地治理方式一致的行省制度,为国家的统一作出了贡献。