人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.     

Challenges of operationalizing trauma‐informed practice in child protection services in New Zealand

New Zealand is undergoing major change in service delivery to children and families. A new Ministry for Children Oranga Tamariki has been established to oversee 5 work streams, one of which provides intensive intervention with families requiring a statutory response to child protection concerns. The government minister responsible promised that the service would be child‐centred and trauma‐informed. To date, these terms remain undefined, and there is no shared understanding of their meaning. Practice frameworks to support the work of the new ministry are still being developed, creating something of a vacuum in the meantime. The focus of this paper is the challenge of implementing trauma‐informed practice in the child protection service provided by the Intensive Intervention work stream. Limited research or commentary on trauma‐informed practice in this context currently exists. Drawing on the relevant available literature, the concept and its application in child protection social work is explored. An ecological framework is used to discuss the changes needed to achieve this. Particular attention is paid to the impact of historical trauma for indigenous people due to New Zealand's colonial history and their over‐representation in care and protection services.     

制度风险的法律维度: 突破非物质文化遗产保护的瓶颈

以风险理论审视非物质文化遗产的现行法律制度,根据风险产生根源不同,非物质文化遗产保护的制度风险会表现为制度运转失灵风险、制度功能偏差风险和公平性缺失风险。化解制度风险,形成制度风险的维度,不可基于同一个标准,而是需要在大的框架之下论及制度风险的法律管控,需要有针对性地创构"建立私权,善用公权"的多元法律控制体系,并在体系内引入技术规制,创设"非物质文化遗产权",推动民间习惯法与法律制度、公法与私法的互动式发展。     

数字媒介视域下的文化记忆研究

文化记忆媒介经历多次嬗变,从口述媒介、书写媒介、印刷媒介到当下的数字媒介。媒介嬗变为文化记忆当下化提供了基本的结构框架,尤其是数字媒介,对文化记忆的储存、传播和表现产生了诸多新影响。首先,它极大地提升了文化记忆的储存能力,也产生了“数字黑暗时代”问题;其次,它有利于传播个体关于文化记忆的观点和评价,放大了各群体间关于文化记忆的认知差异,改变了文化记忆的水平传播和垂直传播;最后,它为文化记忆的表现带来了非线性叙事,产生了超文本和超作者,并为文化记忆文本提供了互文性链接,提高了多叙事主体间互动频率。不仅如此,数字媒介的影响还延展至文化记忆的代际延续和集体认同领域。     

医疗信息共享对患者转移数量和服务质量水平影响研究

当前我国医院间存在严重的"信息孤岛"，医院参与医疗信息共享意愿不高，患者的诊疗信息被静态碎片化储存而无法充分有效地利用。考虑到医院进行医疗信息共享将降低患者转移成本，本文构建一个多阶段双寡头动态博弈模型研究医疗信息共享对医院竞争过程中患者转移数量和服务质量水平决策的影响。首先，根据是否存在转移成本，将患者分为新患者和经验性患者，借助Hotelling模型刻画患者的效用函数，分析患者就诊决策。然后，在政府价格规制和不考虑医院利他性情景下，构建了医院累积期望收益目标函数，使用动态规划方法，求解实现医院累积期望收益最大化的服务质量水平，获得了实现患者相互转移且医院在市场中共存的马尔可夫完美均衡。最后，根据医院参与医疗信息共享后患者转移成本降为零，分析与比较信息共享前后患者转移数量和服务质量水平变化。研究发现：在不同医院间本身存在患者转移背景下，医院参与信息共享后，患者转移数量增加但存在一个上限，增加的转移量与患者在医院间的转移成本呈正相关，与初始感知效用的差值范围呈负相关；医院参与信息共享后，均衡状态下的医院服务质量水平高于信息共享前的服务质量水平。因此，在不改变当前医保支付方式下，要加快推进医疗信息共享，政府部门可以根据医院的患者数量和服务质量水平变化对其进行定期补贴，以激励医院积极参与医疗信息共享，本文给出了这个补贴的量化表达。     

金沙遗址出土文物太阳神鸟黄金面具青铜立人的藏文化解读

从藏族古代文化的视角来看，金器太阳神鸟图似乎与斯巴嘎巴和迥瓦风轮的观念有关，斯巴嘎巴和迥瓦风轮观涉及藏族本教的空间时间观和宇宙本体观。斯巴嘎巴是藏语的汉语对音，指空间和时间。迥瓦是藏语的汉语对音，指风火水土四元素。风轮是藏语的汉语意思表达，指“风”为元初原动力的宇宙形成观。在藏语言里，黄金面具实为金面。古藏人非常重视头发及其发型，即便是对死者补妆也是如此，在为死者补妆时，发辫被排在了补妆12点数的首选位置，且头发与绿松石相对应。     

Leader negative feedback-seeking and leader effectiveness in leader-subordinate relationships: The paradoxical role of subordinate expertise

From a motivational perspective of feedback-seeking behavior, we examined the mediating role of leaders' negative feedback-seeking from subordinates in the relationship between the quality of leader-member exchange (LMX) and subordinates' evaluation of leader effectiveness, along with the moderating role of subordinate expertise in the mediated relationship. Using 151 unique matched sets of leader and subordinate reports obtained from 5 large Korean companies, we found that the positive relationship between LMX and leader effectiveness was mediated by leaders' negative feedback-seeking. Additionally, the positive relationship between LMX and leader negative feedback-seeking was stronger when perceived subordinate expertise was lower. Lastly, the indirect effect of LMX on leader effectiveness through leader negative feedback-seeking was stronger when perceived subordinate expertise was lower. These findings were obtained after controlling for leaders' power distance and goal orientations that might influence their motives to seek or avoid feedback. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

京津冀文化消费的影响因素与结构特征

在京津冀协同发展战略中,文化创意产业在取得初步发展成果的同时,还依旧面临着不少亟待解决的问题。采用问卷调查法实地走访采集区域居民文化消费数据,并进一步通过决策树算法进行数据挖掘,发现京津冀文化消费的影响因素及结构特征,据此提出打造区域共同文化品牌、保障居民收入持续平稳增长、针对青少年文化消费市场创新营销模式、培养其正确的文化价值观及文化创新能力等改进措施,从而优化推动京津冀文化消费市场协同发展的路径,打造互联互通、开放统一的区域文化消费市场,使区域居民文化消费需求成为促进文化产品供给的市场新动力。     

Aesthetics of disaster as decolonial aesthetics: making sense of the effects of Hurricane María through Puerto Rican contemporary art

ABSTRACT

On 20 September 2017, Hurricane María made landfall on Puerto Rico causing unprecedented disaster. From that day onwards, the Puerto Rican multi-layered colonial, social and political context was further complicated by the traumatic acceleration of a human disaster via this natural disaster. This crystalized the urgency of using art as vehicle for (social) catharsis, a practice that continues to be used by individual artists, collectives, community organizations, art projects, and other art institutions on the island and abroad, through mural art, community paintings, art exhibitions, literature, music, and many other aesthetic expressions. This article examines, from a decolonial and critical cultural studies perspective, post-Hurricane María artistic expressions in contemporary art as decolonial aesthetics through the cathartic use of the frame of an aesthetics of disaster. It is argued that, an aesthetics of disaster aims to re-assert an artistic form that is able to accelerate the discursive nullification of a deeply rooted colonial, social and cultural problem by way of art as catharsis inspired by the way that Hurricane María unveiled these problems. The piece briefly contextualizes Puerto Rico, and it examines the idea of Puerto Rican contemporary art as catharsis. Then, it describes how Puerto Rican contemporary art exhibitions and associated aesthetic production are processing urgent post-hurricane issues through three illustrative pieces in exhibitions in PR and abroad in the United States (US). Lastly, decolonial aesthetics is reexamined and re-understood, informed by Édouard Glissant's view expressed in Poetics of Relation which aids to the conclusion that Puerto Rican contemporary art using the frame of an aesthetics of disaster functions as a powerful form of decolonial aesthetics.