中国“碳中和”目标的实现路径与模式选择

围绕中国碳中和目标的实现路径与模式选择问题，提出了一个中国应对气候变化整体治理模式，即多阶段混合主导型碳中和实现模式。这一模式是以国家为核心，在一定时期和内外环境约束下，通过减排和增汇路径，对中国境内由人类活动造成的CO2排放与人为CO2吸收量之间关系进行调整和平衡的过程；其内部由宏观、中观和微观三层结构组成，每层结构各不相同。多阶段混合主导型碳中和实现模式的提出，拓展和完善了气候变化整体治理理论，为气候变化治理提供了机制借鉴。     

Ecosocial change and community resilience: The case of “Bönan” in glocal transition

ABSTRACT

The aim of this article was to identify and discuss ecosocial changes and community resilience mechanisms in a coastal fishing community of Sweden – Bönan. Data were collected through eight semi-structured interviews and field observations. An abductive thematic analysis was used to analyze data and background literature. The findings showed that Bönan has been exposed to a combination of ecosocial changes that have transformed the community, and therefore required community resilience interventions. This article concludes that social workers need to take an active part in ecosocial work for enhancing community resilience.     

第一次石油危机后国际能源政治的情境变迁

国际政治的参与情境决定行动者的博弈行为类型，参与情境变迁将导致行动者行为发生变化。能源安全是国家对外政策的核心议题之一。1973年爆发的第一次石油危机，凸显了能源安全问题的重要性，改变了二战后国际能源政治的参与情境，构建了行动者新的博弈类型，调整了国际能源政治行动者的博弈策略。为了有效应对国际能源政治的情境变迁，美国通过协调与其他国家的能源关系，设置能源安全国际议程，最终确定了新的国际能源秩序。当前，我国在积极参与国际能源合作的过程中，第一次石油危机后国际能源政治的情境变迁以及国际社会的应对策略具有十分重要的启示意义。     

Climate regime shift detection with a trans‐dimensional,sequential Monte Carlo,variational Bayes method

We present an application study which exemplifies a cutting edge statistical approach for detecting climate regime shifts. The algorithm uses Bayesian computational techniques that make time‐efficient analysis of large volumes of climate data possible. Output includes probabilistic estimates of the number and duration of regimes, the number and probability distribution of hidden states, and the probability of a regime shift in any year of the time series. Analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index is provided as an example. Two states are detected: one is associated with positive values of the PDO and presents lower interannual variability, while the other corresponds to negative values of the PDO and greater variability. We compare this approach with existing alternatives from the literature and highlight the potential for ours to unlock features hidden in climate data.     

The need for knowledge modification in technology change: a framework to consider changes in domain complexity,knowledge and productivity

This paper researches productivity in relation to domain complexity and the present knowledge capacity in an organisational context. The study is based on five very different case studies. Three studies are conducted in Denmark, Germany, Mexico and China and are related to knowledge transfer in the relocation of manufacturing facilities. Two studies investigate operation and automation of oil and gas production in the North Sea. The case study method involves semi-structured interviews, surveys, an analysis of historical production data and observations. Based on the findings from the field studies, the paper develops a conceptual framework that management can use for discussions of productivity, development of knowledge and design of learning programmes when considering changes in the complexity of a domain or a change in knowledge.     

Incumbent capability enhancement in response to radical innovations

Schumpeterian market disequilibrium marked by entrepreneurial entry and incumbent exit has long held an important place in management literature. The extant literature has overwhelmingly championed the newcomer, despite incumbents' obvious advantages in resources, experience and market knowledge. The current research provides evidence for the effectiveness of the incumbent's strategy of capability enhancement (along an established technological trajectory) while responding to radical technological innovations. We develop a cognitive process model that integrates managerial cognition with capability development and deployment views, depicting the dynamics of the incumbent's capability enhancement process. We analyze the cognitive drivers of organizational actions in all stages (rigidity, triggering event, and capability renewal) and elucidate the role of top management cognition in the processes of detecting and correcting errors in a strategic course of action. We ground our model in the case of a cork-stopper industry veteran's decline as corks ceded ground to screw tops and other stoppers in the wine industry. How a major company fought back in response to the emergence of these, in the industry context, radical technological innovations, provides the basis for our narrative. The proposed theoretical model contributes to literature on technology management (with regard to incumbent strategies in response to radical innovation threats) as well as the role of cognition in strategy (providing an explanation of the cognitive underpinnings of capability development).     

Resolving complex community problems: Applying collective leadership and Kotter's change model to wicked problems within social system networks

How does collective leadership within social networks resolve chronic and complex problems common to communities? Unfortunately, sometimes it does not, but when it does, the outcome may be truly extraordinary. We use a case study approach to explain how one Midwest community within the USA applied collective leadership within a community network to reduce teen births. It took ten years of what many identified as provocative media campaigns and comprehensive sex education programs to reduce teen births by 65%, significantly exceeding the stated goal. Using Kotter's change model as a backdrop, powerful strategies and provocative creativity reveal courageous leadership within a social network of diverse people and organizations focused on improving the social well being of their community.     

Taking the longer view: Explaining Multicultural London English and Multicultural Paris French

The article explores the perplexing outcomes of comparative research projects in London and Paris on language change in multilingual areas of the cities populated by large numbers of recent immigrants with very diverse language backgrounds. In London, as in many other northern European cities, language contact on such a large scale has resulted in the emergence of a “multiethnolect”: a repertoire of innovative linguistic forms used by young people of all ethnicities, including monolingual non‐immigrant speakers. In Paris, however, there was no such repertoire. I propose four factors that are necessary for a multiethnolect to emerge and that explain why similar processes of population movement, immigration, and globalization have produced such different linguistic outcomes in London and Paris. These factors remind us that language evolution, like language use, is constrained not only by the social characteristics of individuals but also by the socio‐cultural historical contexts in which individuals live.     

Young people and the gendered and aesthetic dimensions of ‘enterprise’: stories from a ‘Rust Belt’ city

ABSTRACT

In the ‘Rust Belt’ city of Geelong in Victoria, Australia, discourses of young people’s enterprise and innovation provide a counter-narrative to the prevailing material and symbolic consequences of industrial decline, job losses, and the growing insecurity of employment and income. GT Magazine is a weekly, large circulation magazine in Geelong with a significant focus on the activities and aspirations of enterprising young people. In this paper, we examine, by utilising techniques of content analysis and discourse analysis, the particular ways in which young people’s innovation and enterprise are framed and enacted in GT Magazine. Our analysis reveals that ‘youth’ and ‘enterprise’ are, in GT Magazine, given an embodied form that is powerfully marked by aestheticised, normalised enactments of gender, class and race. In doing this work, we make productive contributions to three key themes in contemporary youth studies: new work orders and the youthful self as enterprise; the gendered and aesthetic dimensions of affective labour in these new work orders; and the emerging spatial turn to examine young people's embodied, place-based experiences of employment and enterprise. We seek to make problematic the sense that solutions to multiple disruptions and crises in capitalism and the environment are to be found in young people’s enterprise. Particularly when that enterprise is given form in ways that are aestheticised, gendered, classed, individualised and responsibilised.     

Returning to YTS: the long-term impact of youth training scheme participation

ABSTRACT

Shortly after leaving Leicester for Scotland Andy Furlong began to wrestle with the complexities of school to work transitions as captured by the 1986 sweep of the British Cohort Study (BCS). His analysis was published as Schooling for Jobs. Although a relatively short text, this book was vitally important as it documented in detail, for the first time, the changes to career preparations of British secondary school children at the mid-point of a decade where the impact of deindustrialising processes, coupled with the neo-liberal policies of the political right, had ravaged the UK economy and decimated the youth labour market. The mid 1980s were a turning point that marked a shift to ‘individuals’ having responsibility for future career successes and the blaming of young people themselves for any perceived labour market failings. Central to this process was the Youth Training Scheme (YTS). Based on recent collaborations with Andy exploring YTS we have two main aims here. First, we revisit the BCS data to update the story and answer three interrelated questions: (i) what happened to the YTS participants from Furlong’s analysis?; (ii) what were the long-term career and life ‘impacts’ for those who participated in YTS during the 1980s?; and (iii) were these job substitution schemes or gateways to real and meaningful work? Second, we conclude by reflecting upon this aspect of Andy’s legacy and the shape of future research on youth training schemes.