脱离“贫困陷阱”——以西南H村产业扶贫为例

扶贫背景下,深度贫困地区与其他地区相比,诸多限制性因素导致其自身无法实现跨越式发展,深度贫困群体脱贫存在对起始物质资产和人力资本交织的最低需要,即投入的“关键性门槛”.从长期来看,提高人力资本是脱贫并实现可持续发展的重要途径,在无法实现人力资本短期飞跃的现实情况下,则需要关注深度贫困地区外来物质资产的介入.西南M县H村展开的扶贫实践表明,用外来物质资产暂时替代人力资本,通过人工干预扶贫措施来实现村庄产业扶贫的成效显著,结果显示,H村的产业扶贫不仅带来了主营产业收入,同时也带来了明显的外溢收入,H村采用干预扶贫措施农户的收入显著高于未采用干预扶贫措施的农户.研究表明外部援助对于深度性贫困群体脱贫具有重要意义,同时也意识到摆脱深度贫困这一过程的复杂性,“输血”资源到“造血”功能的转化,需要重视人力资本的提升.     

Can the minimum living standard guarantee scheme enable the poor to escape the poverty trap in rural China?

The rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Scheme is the most important social assistance programme in rural China. However, how the rural Dibao programme affects household expenditures and whether it can enable the poor to escape the poverty trap are questions that remain largely unexplored. This study used data from the 2012 Rural Household Survey in China to investigate the impact of the rural Dibao programme on household expenditures. We found that the programme significantly improved the well‐being of low‐income households. Particularly, the programme significantly increased household expenditures on housing, education and health; furthermore, the impact was greater for households with educated household heads. However, the programme did not significantly affect household expenditures on food, transportation or farming inputs. The results imply that participation in the rural Dibao programme induces household investment in human capital, which could help to break the inter‐generational transmission of poverty and raise long‐run welfare.     

Trying to stay ahead of the curve in Chile's economic development: exploring a way out of the middle‐income trap through pragmatic export development

Underneath impressive growth levels, the Chilean economy displays signs of being caught in a middle‐income trap. It has been unable to improve its productivity, increase the added value of its exports or upgrade its value chain. Its economy cannot compete either with low‐wage countries or highly productive, innovative countries. Its export strategy based on export promotion seems to have outlived its usefulness. It achieved remarkable quantitative success, but must now attend qualitative attributes. Instead of regarding market‐driven export promotion and state‐led export development as substitutes, this article proposes to view them as alternatives in different stages of development. To choose the appropriate time, more attention should be given to non‐traditional, structural indicators, like export sophistication and political‐institutional capabilities.     

信息社会背景下的信息自决权

联邦宪法法院在1983年"人口普查案"中创制了"信息自决权",其防御法构想已经无法适应互联网时代信息无处不在的现象. 传统"信息自决权"保护范围过于宽泛,侵犯条件容易满足,这既不符合现实要求,也将导致该领域陷入"法律化陷阱". 改革方案提出保护信息的使用情境,这将导致基本权保护范围大幅缩减. 建议"进化"而非"革命"地重新调整对该基本权的认识,其保护人格权且应当考虑个人"合理的隐私期待",应限制对侵犯的认定. 在私人法律关系中,还应当谨慎运用国家保护义务教义.     

自由的陷阱：《A & P》中的资本主义文化矛盾

约翰·厄普代克的短篇小说《A & P》以艺术的手法,通过对普通民众、Sammy 和泳装少女在 A & P 商场中“自由”行为的描述,揭示了资本主义文化矛盾的本质,以及资本主义社会中,人们自由的丧失及对自由的追求,揭露了20世纪60年代美国社会所鼓吹的自由的本质,即自由的陷阱。     

Welfare Rigidity,the Composition of Public Expenditure and the Welfare Trap

Welfare expenditure is characterized by rigidity, i.e., it goes up easily but is very hard to get down. We introduced welfare rigidity into an endogenous growth model that includes government expenditure to analyze the impact of welfare rigidity and the composition of public expenditure on economic growth and family utility. Our findings show that welfare spending and economic growth have a non-monotonic relationship that is negative or inverted U-shaped depending on cross-country differences. Higher welfare rigidity reduces long-term economic growth and household utility. According to the estimated optimal size of welfare expenditure, China, as a developing country with a large population, has to do all it can to improve people’s livelihood but must at the same time weigh its limited resources so that its welfare expenditure does not fall into a “welfare trap.”     

《阿古利可拉传》与塔西陀的史学思想

《阿古利可拉传》因其所记述的人物与作者的特殊关系 ,长期以来未能引起史学界的重视。事实上 ,该篇传记正是作者史学思想臻于成熟的重要标志。传记中所表达出来的史学思想为其以后的史学著作所证实。传记中的褒谀 ,并不能完全说是作者对其岳父的溢美之词 ,它包含着作者对罗马共和时代古朴淳厚社会道德的深切怀念和对帝制的深恶痛绝。     

乌尔逊-贝尔凹陷有利区预测与勘探目标优选

乌尔逊-贝尔凹陷是海拉尔盆地最重要的油气发现区，现已发现5个大的油气聚集带，勘探前景好。油气成藏主控因素研究表明：研究区具有明显的源控、储控和断控成藏特征，油气藏主要分布在距有效烃源岩中心10 km范围内，NEE和NNE走向断层1 km范围内油气富集程度高，粉砂岩和砂砾岩为最有利的储集岩性，扇三角洲前缘亚相为最有利的沉积相。应用控藏要素多元叠合法对该凹陷南屯组二段进行了成藏有利区综合评价，优选出三级有利成藏区，通过分析有利区内断层型圈闭的断层封闭性能，对凹陷南屯组二段圈闭进行了成藏评价，优选出10个有利勘探目标，为凹陷下步勘探指明了方向。     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

权力腐败与市场经济陷阱

在中国社会深刻转型过程中，权力腐败成为当前社会生活中一个挥之不去的阴影。对金钱的无限贪欲，使得权钱交易、行贿受贿之风盛行。从经济视角中探寻权力腐败的根源，某种意义上是市场经济对增长无限制追求和对奢侈无限制满足的陷阱。理性地绕开这种陷阱，用信仰有效地控制欲求，是探究遏制权力腐败的理性诉求，也是当前学习实践科学发展观的题中之义。