The coevolution of trade agreements and investment treaties: Some evidence from network analysis

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) and bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are expected to promote trade and investment relationships. One critical feature of such agreements is the network, so the multiplex coevolution of RTAs and BITs should be captured by the dynamics of their two networks. Although many studies have examined the roles of RTAs and BITs, most studies do not account for crucial network properties. This study explores how RTAs and BITs coevolve by applying a stochastic actor-oriented model of multiplex network evolution. In particular, we examine the roles of (i) cross-network dyadic interinfluences and (ii) within- and cross-network preferential attachments to discuss the dynamic relationships between RTAs and BITs. The results are as follows. First, our estimation supports cross-network dyadic interinfluences. Countries that sign a BIT are willing to establish an RTA, while those that sign an RTA are reluctant to establish a BIT. Second, concerning preferential attachments, countries prefer to sign BITs with partners that have more RTA and BIT links. However, countries tend to form RTAs with partners that have more BIT links but are reluctant to form RTAs with those that have more RTA links. We discuss possible justifications for these results, including arguments regarding the benefits and costs associated with the formation of RTAs and BITs.     

Every Minute Counts: Using Process Improvement and Performance Feedback to Improve Patient Flow in an Emergency Department

Prolonged emergency department (ED) visits are associated with a number of adverse outcomes for patients as well as lower patient satisfaction scores and increased costs. Several factors that influence the length of ED visits are out of the control of hospital employees, but some opportunities exist to improve performance. For this study, the ED department of a 150-bed hospital in the southeastern United States wanted to improve door-to-discharge time. To do so, a subprocess of door-to-discharge time was targeted, door-to-order. After analyzing the process, the team created standard orders for the 10 most common presenting conditions in the ER with preapproval, allowing nurses to submit the orders without the provider first visiting the patient. Following the process change, daily feedback was added to increase utilization of the preapproved orders. Reductions in door-to-order times and door-to-discharge were observed and patient satisfaction remained stable. Implications for future research in this area are discussed.     

基于Hawkes过程中美股市大幅波动互激效应的研究

近年来，由于中美经济联系日趋紧密，中美股票市场大幅波动的互激效应明显增强。本文考虑中美股市时差和法定节假日差异等因素，运用标值Hawkes过程对2006-2017年CSI300和S&P500大幅波动收益率数据进行建模，结果表明：（1）中美股市大幅波动互激效应存在不对称性，美股市场大幅波动对中国股市的互激效应更强；（2）中美股市大幅波动的幅度对互激效应不存在显著影响；（3）中美股票市场对于大幅波动互激效应的消化速度存在差异，中国股票市场消化美股大幅波动互激效应的速度较快。本研究对金融市场监管者和投资者均有一定意义。     

Analysis of social innovation on social networking services

ABSTRACT

Social network services are allowing more social connectivity and making possible sharing information and knowledge of a different nature. This article analyses if social workers related to active social policies from Malaga province (Spain) are using social network services to share information and knowledge and if there is a mirror between online and offline relationships. Since it is an experimental model, through virtual ethnography and through social network analysis methodology, we observed the presence, connectivity and analysed the structure of relationships that keep 235 professionals from 52 organizations in Facebook®. Moreover, the model uses the statistical technique of modularity for detecting online communities, which are compared with distribution of professionals in their organizations. Results show how social network services applied to social intervention are massively and frequently used by professionals. On the other hand, the detected communities reflect existence of analogy between online and offline relationships. The online structure shows a high degree of cohesion and how certain professionals have higher capacity of influence and diffusion depending on position in the online structure. It argues about the opportunity to incorporate social network services towards social intervention as a manner of social innovation to improve cooperation and diffusion of information and knowledge.     

大数据战略视野下我国信息网络安全立法分析

大数据战略视野下,很多国家纷纷制定、完善和执行着自己的信息网络安全法律,并已形成世界潮流.从国内外的大数据战略与信息网络安全立法分析来看,我国既有成绩,也有不足.对于我国信息网络安全的法律保障,目前需要完善的主要内容有:进一步明确国家信息网络安全立法的目的与宗旨;基本法层面,尽快构建完备的信息网络安全法律保障有机体系,重点包括政府信息公开法与个人信息保护法等;实施层面,加强与完善具体领域的单行法与配套法建设,增强法律规定的可操作性;完善法律框架之外的协作保障体系.     

The covariance of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process: the stationary case and asymptotics for the ordinary case

In a Poisson process, it is well-known that the forward and backward recurrence times at a given time point t are independent random variables. In a renewal process, although the joint distribution of these quantities is known (asymptotically), it seems that very few results regarding their covariance function exist. In the present paper, we study this covariance and, in particular, we state both necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be positive, zero or negative in terms of reliability classifications and the coefficient of variation of the underlying inter-renewal and the associated equilibrium distribution. Our results apply either for an ordinary renewal process in the steady state or for a stationary process.     

Modeling spatial overdispersion via the generalized Waring point process

Modeling spatial overdispersion requires point process models with finite‐dimensional distributions that are overdisperse relative to the Poisson distribution. Fitting such models usually heavily relies on the properties of stationarity, ergodicity, and orderliness. In addition, although processes based on negative binomial finite‐dimensional distributions have been widely considered, they typically fail to simultaneously satisfy the three required properties for fitting. Indeed, it has been conjectured by Diggle and Milne that no negative binomial model can satisfy all three properties. In light of this, we change perspective and construct a new process based on a different overdisperse count model, namely, the generalized Waring (GW) distribution. While comparably tractable and flexible to negative binomial processes, the GW process is shown to possess all required properties and additionally span the negative binomial and Poisson processes as limiting cases. In this sense, the GW process provides an approximate resolution to the conundrum highlighted by Diggle and Milne.     

Fostering social capital in an international multi-stakeholder issue network

Scholars have theorized that public relations contributes to societies and communities by bringing attention to pressing public issues and fostering social capital in civil society networks. However, the extant research has studied civil society networks of NGOs, donors, and the media in transitional countries. This study extends the public relations model of civil society in two ways. First, it broadens the scope to an international context. Second, it draws from the multi-stakeholder issue network perspective to conceptualize a civil society network as a space where stakeholders of an issue mix their interests as they collectively address a pressing public issue. The literature on international and multi-stakeholder networks suggest that the international scope and the mixing of interests across sectors may restrict the production of social capital. The results from the social network analysis suggests that the mixing of interests across sectoral and geopolitical boundaries did not restrict the production of social capital. Rather, the patterns of the relationships among those on the core and those on the periphery of the network restricted the production of social capital. Such finding demonstrates how public relations’ functions like relationship building can have profound influences on social capital and civil society networks. The implications for public relations theorizing and research are discussed.     

考虑项目关联关系的R&D网络风险传播建模与仿真

考虑同一企业内不同项目间关联关系的情况下，基于研发项目的数量将研发网络分为不同子网络。借鉴SIS模型构建了R&D网络风险传播动力学模型，并对该模型进行了数理解析与仿真分析。结果表明：R&D网络风险传播阈值是由不同子网络的拓扑结构以及企业内不同项目间的关联程度共同决定的；考虑项目关联的研发网络风险传播阈值小于不考虑关联关系的研发网络风险传播阈值；项目间关联关系的企业个数及项目间的关联程度对风险在不同子网络上的传播速度与传播范围均具有影响。该研究成果对于提高研发网络抗风险能力具有重要意义。     

How Moroccan‐Dutch parents learn in communities of practice: Evaluating a bottom‐up parenting programme

Research shows that top‐down‐designed parenting programmes do not always meet the needs of postmigration parents. Bottom‐up programmes by migrant organizations hold a promise to fill this gap; however, research about these programmes and appropriate evaluation methodologies is scarce. Drawing upon Wenger's ( 2010 ) “communities of practice,” this paper explores an alternative perspective on parenting programme evaluation. Findings are presented from a study looking into social learning processes of postmigration parents who participated in a bottom‐up programme about raising teenagers in urban areas. Using an ethnographically inspired method combined with a preprogramme and postprogramme design, 115 Moroccan‐Dutch mothers and fathers from 15 programme groups participated. Results show that the programme provided a social learning space in which parents used themselves as resources to learn collectively about parenting. Moreover, parents consciously engaged in learning interactions across learning spaces stretched into their social networks. These analyses showed how parents' development of “learning citizenship” (Wenger, 2009 ) provides us with insight in collective learning dimensions present in a bottom‐up parenting programme, which is often not included in evaluation studies. Implications for practitioners as facilitators of parents' collective learning are presented.