零售4.0时代先行发货问题的大数据分析

在零售4.0时代，渠道的多样化不仅丰富了数据源，还能迅速生成大量数据，需要通过分析大数据，为决策提取有意义的信息，通过分析先行发货的重要性，提出了一种基于遗传算法（GA）的优化模型，预测顾客何时购买，然后在顾客线下单前将产品运送到距顾客最近的配送中心，解决先行发货中存在的问题。研究认为，需要先部署云计算来存储所有渠道生成的大数据，再应用基于集群的关联规则挖掘研究顾客的购买行为，根据“如果-那么”预测规则预测未来的采购情况，最后利用修正的遗传算法生成最优的先行发货计划；这种遗传算法考虑了其在运输成本和运输距离之外，还有预测规则的置信度，利用大量的数值实验权衡了先行发货中的不同因素，验证了模型的最优可靠性     

工伤保险赔偿责任研究 ——以劳务派遣用工为切入点

劳务派遣作为一种灵活的用工形式,受到我国各类用人单位的青睐和广泛运用。2013年《劳动合同法》修订弥补了我国劳务派遣制度上的不足,但由于起步时间较晚,加上制度的复杂性,存在工伤赔偿制度的责任划分不清晰、工伤保险待遇先行支付具体操作存在困难、异地劳务派遣工伤保险制度执行不明确等方面的问题。我国需要从确立《劳动合同法》中派遣单位与用工单位的具体责任分担制度、完善劳务派遣工伤待遇先行支付规定、明确异地保险制度相关规定等方面入手,进一步完善工伤保险制度在劳务派遣用工中的适用,有效保护被派遣劳动者的合法权益。     

When is n large enough? Looking for the right sample size to estimate proportions

The central limit theorem indicates that when the sample size goes to infinite, the sampling distribution of means tends to follow a normal distribution; it is the basis for the most usual confidence interval and sample size formulas. This study analyzes what sample size is large enough to assume that the distribution of the estimator of a proportion follows a Normal distribution. Also, we propose the use of a correction factor in sample size formulas to ensure a confidence level even when the central limit theorem does not apply for these distributions.     

A semi-parametric method for estimating the beta coefficients of the hidden two-sided asset return jumps

ABSTRACT

We introduce a new methodology for estimating the parameters of a two-sided jump model, which aims at decomposing the daily stock return evolution into (unobservable) positive and negative jumps as well as Brownian noise. The parameters of interest are the jump beta coefficients which measure the influence of the market jumps on the stock returns, and are latent components. For this purpose, at first we use the Variance Gamma (VG) distribution which is frequently used in modeling financial time series and leads to the revelation of the hidden market jumps' distributions. Then, our method is based on the central moments of the stock returns for estimating the parameters of the model. It is proved that the proposed method provides always a solution in terms of the jump beta coefficients. We thus achieve a semi-parametric fit to the empirical data. The methodology itself serves as a criterion to test the fit of any sets of parameters to the empirical returns. The analysis is applied to NASDAQ and Google returns during the 2006–2008 period.     

马克思主义民族理论在新世纪的新发展--学习胡锦涛同志在中央民族工作会议上的重要讲话

胡锦涛同志在中央民族工作会议上的讲话,是新世纪新阶段我国民族工作的纲领性文件,是对党和国家的民族理论和政策一个新的丰富和发展,也是对马克思主义民族理论的新发展.     

汉代关中游侠刍议

两汉时期,关中任侠之气盛行,出现了许多名噪一声的游侠人物。这些游侠一方面拥有打抱不平、行侠仗义、扶危救困的正义精神,在民间享有很高的声誉和威望;另一方面,他们又往往表现出蔑视国法、任意妄为甚至杀人如麻的一面,给国家治安和社会生活造成了很大危害,因而成为官府镇压、屠戮的对象,许多游侠因此结局悲惨。后世文人对于游侠的评价,大多过于看重他们正义、勇武的一面,而对于他们杀人越货、打家劫舍一类的恶行,则往往给予掩饰或美化,不符合历史真实。因此今人在研究过程中应该给游侠以客观、公正、一分为二的评价。     

基于主成分分析法的中部六省经济发展状况比较研究

为促进我国各区域经济协调发展,国家出台了一系列推进中部地区发展的政策,这为中部地区崛起提供了良好机遇.现阶段是中部地区社会经济快速与可持续发展的关键时期,对该区域社会经济各方面发展情况的全面了解是发挥政策优势促进区域竞争力提升的重要基础.运用主成分分析法,选取能反映中部六省社会经济发展状况的综合指标,确定和解释影响中部地区社会经济发展的主成分因素,以对中部六省社会经济发展状况进行比较,指出政策推进在区域经济、社会发展中的差异并采取有效应对策略.     

中国与中亚国家能源合作问题——基于演化博弈模型的分析

构建演化博弈模型分析中国与中亚国家的能源合作问题,研究表明:(1)降低中国及中亚国家在进行能源合作时各自的付出成本会提高能源合作的可能性.(2)提高中国及中亚国家在进行能源合作时各自的收益会提高能源合作的可能性.(3)中国及中亚国家在进行能源合作时的初始意愿对能源合作会产生重要影响:当中国及中亚国家在初始时刻都十分愿意进行能源合作时,能源合作最终一定会成功;当中国及中亚国家在初始时刻有一方不愿意进行能源合作时,能源合作最终不一定能成功.研究还发现,中亚国家与中国进行能源合作的意愿不强烈是导致中国与中亚国家能源合作项目成果较少的主要原因.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.