大数据驱动下的政府治理机制研究——基于2020年后精准扶贫领域的返贫阻断分析

大数据时代已经到来，大数据驱动下的政府治理发生何种改变，目前相关研究较少。当前政府治理的考验集中在2020年实现全面脱贫后精准扶贫领域的返贫阻断。文章以该领域为切入点，探索大数据驱动下政府治理的内在机制。研究发现：大数据背景下，政府治理能力催生出新的核心能力，即数据治理能力。数据治理能力驱动下，政府治理主体多元化有利于实现政府治理资源的宽范围、精准化动员；政府治理方式实现经验式决策向数据化决策转变，有利于实现政府资源的高效率和公平配置；政府治理客体的精准识别，有利于政府资源的精准化和最优化运用。但是客观上必须具备数据治理能力，主观上必须按照大数据驱动的要求重构政府治理体系（包括治理主体、治理方式和治理客体），才能真正实现以数据治理驱动政府治理，进而提高政府治理能力的目的。而数据治理能力客观上也加速了政府治理体系的重构，进而加快了政府治理能力的提升，并最终提高政府治理绩效。在对标大数据应用不同阶段分析常规式返贫阻断和大数据返贫阻断的不足和差距的基础上，笔者提出重构政府治理体系和提升数据治理能力等针对性建议。     

融资融券交易行为及其收益可预测性研究

2010 年融资融券业务的开通，不仅为中国市场投资者引入卖空机制，同时也为投机性交易者提供杠杆放大机制． 不同于以往主要从制度变迁视角研究卖空机制， 本文从微观行为视角，系统研究信用账户投资者融资融券交易行为及其市场可预测性． 基于 2011 年 12 月 ～ 2015年 8 月的样本数据，研究发现，信用账户投资者在股票价格上涨后增加融资买入， 而在股票价格下跌后提高融券卖出，即采取“追涨杀跌”的投资策略． 进一步研究表明， 融资交易能预测正的未来收益，而融券交易能预测负的未来收益． 此外，融资交易提高了未来股价崩盘风险，融券交易则可以降低未来股价崩盘发生的可能性． 本文的研究揭示了中国市场投资者融资融券微观交易行为及其市场影响，并为进一步规范发展融资融券业务提供理论依据．     

A semi-parametric method for estimating the beta coefficients of the hidden two-sided asset return jumps

ABSTRACT

We introduce a new methodology for estimating the parameters of a two-sided jump model, which aims at decomposing the daily stock return evolution into (unobservable) positive and negative jumps as well as Brownian noise. The parameters of interest are the jump beta coefficients which measure the influence of the market jumps on the stock returns, and are latent components. For this purpose, at first we use the Variance Gamma (VG) distribution which is frequently used in modeling financial time series and leads to the revelation of the hidden market jumps' distributions. Then, our method is based on the central moments of the stock returns for estimating the parameters of the model. It is proved that the proposed method provides always a solution in terms of the jump beta coefficients. We thus achieve a semi-parametric fit to the empirical data. The methodology itself serves as a criterion to test the fit of any sets of parameters to the empirical returns. The analysis is applied to NASDAQ and Google returns during the 2006–2008 period.     

Unequal returns to social capital: the study of Malays in Singapore through a network lens

Using the concepts of ‘social capital deficit’ and ‘return deficit’, this study considers the social network aspects of social disadvantage among Malays in Singapore, as compared to Singaporean Chinese. Analysing a 2005 representative survey, we find Malays have less social capital than Chinese, a social capital deficit partly explained by their lower educational attainment. We find no return deficit in earnings: that is, every additional unit of social capital increases earnings equally for Chinese and Malays. However, we find return deficits in education: every additional unit of social capital (e.g. ties to educated parents) increases educational attainment more for Chinese than Malays. In all, this study offers a social capital explanation for Malay ‘plight’, complementing the more conventional explanations of human and economic capital.     

“收益率宽幅”是导致宏观杠杆率攀升的原因吗

从会计学收益的微观视角研究宏观经济运行风险,发现货币性资产与投资性房地产之间的资产收益率差距持续拉大的经济现象,诱发宏观杠杆率攀升、金融风险加大。选取中国2000—2018年的年度数据,构建Koyck模型,实证检验不同类型资产之间的收益率宽幅与政府部门杠杆率、居民部门杠杆率、非金融企业部门杠杆率、实体经济部门杠杆率的相关关系。结果表明,收益率宽幅与政府部门杠杆率、居民部门杠杆率、非金融企业部门杠杆率、实体经济部门杠杆率之间存在着显著的正相关关系,收益率宽幅持续拉大,各部门宏观杠杆率不断攀升,资产泡沫难以抑制,宏观经济运行风险较大,这为平缓去杠杆、守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线提供了新视角。     

Social Return on Investment for Good Foot Delivery

This article provides reflections on a social return on investment (SROI) research process with Good Foot Delivery, a work integration social enterprise in Toronto, Canada, engaged in package delivery and employing people with developmental challenges. The article has three aims: (1) to assess Good Foot's key business inputs, activities, and outputs, and the social impact that these have had on its key stakeholders for the 2013 calendar year; (2) to critically reflect on how the research team arrived at the SROI’s inputs, outputs, outcomes, proxies, and other findings; and (3) to discuss some of the strengths and challenges of the SROI process in practice.     

Social Return on Investment of an Innovative Employment Option for Persons with Developmental Disabilities

Common Ground Co‐operative (CGC) provides training, administrative, and job coach support to five social enterprises for which persons with developmental disabilities are the non‐share‐capital partners. This study examines the use of social return on investment (SROI) as a means of determining the value of program impacts related to quality‐of‐life changes for enterprise partners and their families. The process of conducting this SROI analysis is described and analyzed in terms of its utility in employment services for persons with developmental disabilities.     

What's In It for the Volunteers?

This article reports on a social return on investment (SROI) analysis of volunteers of the Good Food Market program, a food access initiative run by FoodShare Toronto, one of Canada's largest food‐justice organizations. Unlike conventional SROI research, which typically focuses on the entire ecology of an organization or program, this article focuses solely on isolating the return volunteers receive on their investment of time, skills, energy, and the like—an SROI of volunteering. The article reviews the challenges of adapting the SROI methodology to the context of volunteer benefits and finds that ultimately SROI is a useful tool for articulating the value of volunteering.     

Social Return on Investment Analysis

This article uses a social return on investment (SROI) methodology to analyze the social impact of a social enterprise offering a job and skills training program to an unemployed, largely female population. The social enterprise is based in Toronto (Canada) and run by a nonprofit agency dedicated to the advancement and empowerment of women, primarily immigrants, through access to employment. We focus our analysis on a job and skills training program that provides clients with the skills and tools that they need to successfully seek employment in their efforts to (re‐)enter the Canadian labor market. Our goal is to determine the tangible and intangible program outcomes by applying and testing the SROI methodology.     

西部民族地区退耕还林还草的法律保障探讨

自然生态环境是人类赖以生存的基本条件,是经济社会发展的根本基础。自然生态环境的不断恶化,已成为制约西部地区经济社会持续发展的严重问题之一。我国制定“退耕还林还草”战略决策最主要的目的,就是为了给西部地区人民营造一个新的生存和发展空间。实施“退耕还林还草”的战略决策,必须尊重群众意愿,确保林草的成活率;必须遵循自然规律,因地制宜,宜林则林,宜草则草,实行综合治理;必须严格执行国务院关于“退耕还林、封山绿化、以粮代赈、个体承包”的法规措施;必须认真落实保护农民土地经营权的法律规范,树立生态环境可持续发展的法律协调观;必须建立和健全西部地区生态效益补偿机制,充分利用价格杠杆的作用促进西部地区的生态平衡。西部大开发要维护经济发展与生态的良性循环,建设山川秀美的新家园,让西部地区人民群众脱贫致富奔小康。