投资者情绪生成机理的研究

基于标准金融理论与行为金融理论相结合的思想，力图刻画投资者情绪的生成机理。以引起投资者情绪变化的货币环境、市场收益、市场波动、相关资产收益等因素为起点，引入市场投资价值、市场预期两个中间变量，建立了包含直接和间接影响两类路径的投资者情绪生成概念模型。使用中国股市2014年7月1日至2017年3月31日间的667组日度数据，在VAR建模的基础上开展实证研究。实证结果表明市场收益对投资者情绪具有直接的正向影响，市场波动和相关资产收益两因素基于市场预期中介变量间接负向作用于投资者情绪，而修正后引入的经济周期波动变量可以基于市场投资价值中介变量对投资者情绪产生正向影响，并进一步发现了市场收益、市场投资价值与投资者情绪之间存在正反馈强化过程。研究揭示出了投资者情绪生成的影响因素体系及其实现路径，将该领域研究深入到机理分析层面，并从一个侧面佐证了中国股市过度投机行为的存在。     

Do greater amounts of FDI cause higher pollution levels? Evidence from OECD countries

Using an ARDL model for a panel of 15 OECD countries, this work analyses the impact that FDI, both jointly and by sector, has on CO₂ emissions. The findings reveal that these countries are yielding to the pressure on the trade sector. Unexpectedly, gross fixed capital formation shrink pollution, excluding in the mining sector. With findings supporting the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, policymakers must pay attention to FDI inflows, ensuring that FDI place high importance on the transfer of green technologies to improve the efficiency. These goals could be achieved through an increase in the stringency of environmental laws within the host countries, especially the ones related to FDI.     

双循环新发展格局下中国双向直接投资研究

构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是对未来中国经济发展路径做出的重大战略部署,作为连接国内国际双循环的纽带,双向直接投资的发展战略和路径面临重塑和调整。研究认为,应当以推动新时代科技创新和产业升级为目标,提高双向直接投资的质量,畅通供应链和产业链; 以“一带一路”倡议为依托,通过更高水平的双向投资带动中国与沿线国家贸易水平的提高; 建设高水平自贸区和自贸港,提高对外开放标准,更高质量吸引外资,提升参与国际大循环的技术含量和自主性; 在畅通要素流动领域,建立更加完善的现代化物流体系,建设更高标准的要素流通市场体系,降低制度性交易费用,提高生产率和对高质量外资的吸引能力。     

资本结构与员工劳动生产率

债务作为重要的公司治理手段，可以降低企业、管理层与员工之间的委托代理成本，提高员工劳动生产率.同时，债务水平上升将提高企业破产风险，对企业和员工的人力资本投入与员工劳动生产率可能产生不利影响.以我国1999年一2014年工业企业上市公司为样本，本文不同佑计方法的实证结果均表明企业的债务水平越高，员工劳动生产率越低.在其他因素不变的情况下，企业的财务困境加剧了债务对员工劳动生产率的不利影响;债务对员工劳动生产率的负作用在人力资本依赖度高的公司以及在外部就业环境好的地区更加显著.对于债务与员工劳动生产率作用的中介效应分析与分位数回归结果也说明债务上升可能导致企业人力资本投资下降，对员工劳动生产率产生不利影响.研究为我国“去杠杆”经济政策提供了微观企业层面的经验证据.     

企业资源配置战略与盈余持续性

盈余持续性是盈余质量的重要特征。较高的盈余持续性预示着企业的盈余质量较高,在一定程度上表明企业的经营状况平稳并具有良好的管理水平,有利于企业降低经营风险、提升公司价值。近年来,盈余持续性已经成为资本市场研究领域的一个热点问题。以我国A股市场2007—2017年非金融类上市公司为样本,对企业资源配置战略与盈余持续性之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,经营主导型公司的盈余持续性要显著强于投资主导型公司;进一步区分具体的盈余构成后发现,经营主导型公司核心利润的持续性显著强于投资主导型公司,但其投资收益的持续性显著弱于投资主导型公司。上述结论表明,盈余及其构成的持续性均会受到公司资源配置战略的影响。相关研究结论既为公司资源配置战略影响盈余特征提供了经验证据,又对外部利益相关者透过战略本质看清会计信息的内在价值具有一定的启示作用。     

How does BREXIT affect production patterns of multinational enterprises?

This paper explores how the British exit from the European Union (EU) potentially affects the United Kingdom (UK) economy and the production patterns of multinational enterprises that choose the UK as either a destination market or a gateway to the EU market. Utilizing an extended version of the knowledge-capital model, which includes six types of firms and four countries grouped into market and non-market, simulation analysis reveals that efforts to enhance attractiveness of the UK as a destination market to increase horizontal-type inward foreign direct investment would be a solution to cover losses from reduction in the number of export-platforms.     

信息不对称下理财产品刚性兑付成因研究

既然法律或者理财合同没有规定，为什么银行要对其发行的理财产品进行刚性兑付? 已有国内研究以定性分析为主，缺乏规范的模型分析; 已有国外研究或不能完全解释理财产品投资非标资产比例显著低于监管上限，或没有考虑银行理财产品存在事后信息不对称的现实，尚不能完全解释银行理财产品刚性兑付的成因。文章使用成本状态验证方法刻画关于到期收益的信息不对称，使用信息投资方法刻画关于银行努力程度的信息不对称，构建委托投资管理模型分析银行理财产品刚性兑付的形成机理。研究发现，刚性兑付有助于降低信息不对称导致的成本，从而增加银行收益; 当绕过监管的成本低于一定阈值时，刚性兑付便有利可图，银行因而选择刚性兑付。进一步分析表明，引入关于到期收益信息的不完美信号，有助于缓解激励问题、破解刚性兑付。     

Gender differences in risk behavior and the link to household effects and individual wealth

This study examined the differences in risk behavior between men and women using a household survey that captured the risk preferences of two members in a household and recorded wealth at the individual level instead of the usual approach of representing wealth at the household level. After controlling for commonly used explanatory variables, such as gender, education, age, and wealth, household fixed effects explain about 15% of the variation in risk behavior. This highlights the magnitude of household effects in shaping one’s risk behavior. In general, females in the study area are more risk averse than males based on a risk game with real payout. The gender differences disappear when focusing on only the top land owners. However, even in those cases, females consider themselves more risk averse, supporting results from previous studies that link culture and societal norms to the gender differences in risk behavior.     

Public income transfers and wealth accumulation at the bottom: Within and between country differences in Canada and the United States

Both Canada and the United States are considered liberal welfare states, yet exhibit notable differences in income poverty attributed to social policy. While a more generous welfare system lifts many above income poverty, models of household financial behaviour suggest that more income from the state should displace private savings via a substitution effect. Using nationally representative wealth surveys from Canada and the US from 1998/1999 to 2016 we extend knowledge on the relationship between the welfare state and private wealth accumulation. Specifically, we study household asset poverty defined as financial asset levels that fall below three-month adjusted income poverty threshold. Asset poverty rates varied over time in the two countries and were higher in the less generous US welfare state. Further, income transfer share was positively related to asset poverty in Canada but not in the US. Counterfactual estimates offered evidence of the substitution effect in Canada, where higher levels of transfers may crowd out private asset accumulation. Results invite further consideration of the concept of asset poverty and its relationship to welfare state characteristics.