第一次石油危机后国际能源政治的情境变迁

国际政治的参与情境决定行动者的博弈行为类型，参与情境变迁将导致行动者行为发生变化。能源安全是国家对外政策的核心议题之一。1973年爆发的第一次石油危机，凸显了能源安全问题的重要性，改变了二战后国际能源政治的参与情境，构建了行动者新的博弈类型，调整了国际能源政治行动者的博弈策略。为了有效应对国际能源政治的情境变迁，美国通过协调与其他国家的能源关系，设置能源安全国际议程，最终确定了新的国际能源秩序。当前，我国在积极参与国际能源合作的过程中，第一次石油危机后国际能源政治的情境变迁以及国际社会的应对策略具有十分重要的启示意义。     

State‐led industrial development,structural transformation and elite‐led plunder: Angola (2002–2013) as a developmental state

From 2002 to 2013, Angola engaged in large‐scale state‐led reconstruction and development alongside an elite‐led appropriation and seizure of national assets. Until the oil price shock, Angola had been succeeding in promoting rapid economic growth, and possibly even significant social development, alongside a massive grab of wealth and power by local elites. Today, though an economic crisis has taken hold, frequent predictions of the country's imminent collapse have yet to be fulfilled. This article reviews the state's development planning and expenditure with a focus on public investment and industrial development to determine to what extent Angola during this period might be considered a developmental or petro‐developmental state. It is argued that, while more significant than generally thought, petro‐developmental outcomes were and are limited by the autocratic and neopatrimonial tendencies of the Angolan elite. Nevertheless, limited success with structural transformation may have lasting effects. Following its long civil war, the conditions existed for Angola to follow a new path of state‐led development. Though it may now be more difficult, structural transformation and economic diversification remain the only path to economic and social development.     

Analyzing time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets

This study analyzed the time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency (WTC). The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicated that covariance between oil price and exchange rate is unable to give clear-cut results, but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10–15 months’ scale. These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain-based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate; however, in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.     

技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

Persistent Risk-Related Worry as a Function of Recalled Exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Prior Trauma

Large oil spills are disasters associated with psychological effects for exposed communities. The amount of worry that individuals experience after a disaster may be influenced by many factors, such as the type and extent of exposure to disaster impacts, prior trauma, and sociodemographic characteristics. This study examined the nature and predictors of worry about ongoing impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil spill reported by Gulf of Mexico coastal residents. A random sample of 2,520 adult residents of Gulf of Mexico coastal counties were administered a telephone survey in 2016, including items about persistent worry and exposure to DH impacts, prior trauma, residence at the time of the spill, and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents varied in the amount of worry they reported about ongoing health, social, and economic impacts. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, higher exposure to the DH oil spill was related to higher levels of worry about ongoing impacts, with past traumatic events related specifically to worry about health impacts. Unexpectedly, those who moved into the region after the spill showed similar levels of worry to residents exposed to the spill, and higher levels than residents who did not recall being exposed to the DH oil spill. This study highlights the impact of the DH oil spill on coastal residents many years after the DH disaster. The findings underscore the need to examine multiple pathways by which individuals experience disasters and for risk researchers to close knowledge gaps about long-term impacts of oil spills within a multi-dimensional framework.     

论中国油画创作题材和表现形式的民族化

油画艺术自明代从西方传入中国后，在一百多年的发展历程中不断与中国本土文化相融合，逐步形成了鲜明的民族风格，主要表现为：在创作上不仅采用富有中国特色的自然和人文题材，还特别钟情于少数民族题材；在艺术表现形式方面借鉴了中国传统艺术的特点，具体表现在构图、线条和意境等方面。     

高含水期复杂断块油藏剩余油分布及挖潜

高含水期陆相复杂断块层状油藏剩余油分布复杂,油藏模拟难度大。马11复杂断块油藏在油藏精细描述基础上,利用动静态综合分析研究与密网格大规模数值模拟研究相结合,提高了剩余油研究精度和可信度;在此基础上,针对油藏剩余油分布特点并结合当前经济技术条件,部署实施了以调整井、调剖、堵水、油水井大修为主的剩余油挖潜方案,油藏含水上升率大幅度下降、采油速度上升、采收率提高了。     

房价对企业技术创新产出的成本效应与投资效应研究——基于A股上市公司数据的实证分析

文章将房价对企业创新水平的影响归结为"成本效应"及"投资效应"两种影响机制，并分析了房地产价格、房产性投资行为、房产性投资的深化以及企业技术创新产出之间的关系。文章的创新之处在于，将创新要素投入和创新管理水平作为中介变量，从理论和实证两方面检验房价和创新产出的关系。基于提出的理论观点利用A股上市公司数据，对研究假设进行了实证研究，得到如下结论：房价对企业技术创新水平的影响机制至少是通过"成本效应"与"投资效应"两条渠道实现的；房价对企业技术创新水平的"成本效应"是通过技术创新投入作为中介对技术创新成果产生影响；房价对企业技术创新水平的"投资效应"是通过技术创新管理水平作为中介对技术创新成果产生影响；未能证实房产性投资会挤压上市公司技术创新投入。文章的研究结论具有以下重要政策启示意义：应当重视房地产价格对企业技术创新产出的"成本效应"。在新旧动能转换的背景下，创新人才的稀缺性提高了其在劳动力市场的议价能力，作为生活必需品的房屋价格上涨，会导致创新人才的劳动力价格随之上涨，这势必加大企业技术创新投入的负担，影响企业的转型升级和长期发展质量；A股企业的房地产投资并未挤压技术创新投入，但降低了企业创新的效率。在政策上，应当制定相关技术创新效率的考察指标，促进骨干型企业重视其创新效率的提升。     

现行成品油定价机制背后的税利博弈简

自成品油定价机制改革以来,成品油定价机制饱受争议,油价一直是人们关注的焦点。分析了国内需求拉动和国际输入型价格变动是引起油价上涨的主要原因;油价变动对用油企业、个人及产油企业的影响。随着我国国内成品油需求量日益增加,引发用油企业、个人及产油的上游企业与下游企业以及国家各方不断进行利益博弈,提出只有通过国家税收政策经济杠杆的调节作用,才能逐步调整各方利益及分配关系。     

对华北油田勘探历程的再认识

华北油田是我国最早发现古潜山海相碳酸盐岩油气藏的地方,也是产量骤起骤降幅度最大的一个油田,它的勘探过程中蕴含着太多丰富的经验值得总结.从任4井发现的细节入手进行回顾,对华北油田勘探经验中的古潜山、碳酸盐岩、震旦系灰岩等关键问题进行了深入思考.指出按有机成油论的学说很难将华北油田的历史经验深入总结下去,应按无机成油论的观点,对华北油田的历史经验进行再认识.