Robust block bootstrap panel predictability tests*

This article develops two block bootstrap-based panel predictability test procedures that are valid under very general conditions. Some of the allowable features include cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneous predictive slopes, persistent predictors, and complex error dynamics, including cross-unit endogeneity. While the first test procedure tests if there is any predictability at all, the second procedure determines the units for which predictability holds in case of a rejection by the first. A weak unit root framework is adopted to allow persistent predictors, and a novel theory is developed to establish asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap. Simulations are used to evaluate the performance of our tests in small samples, and their implementation is illustrated through an empirical application to stock returns.     

家族控制程度对上市公司股价情绪效应的影响研究

上市公司家族控制程度的差异是否会引起投资者对其股票估值的不确定性的变化,这一问题在现有家族企业研究文献中鲜有涉及。基于我国A股家族上市公司样本的2009—2017年度数据,从股票超额收益率对投资者情绪敏感度的角度,分析了家族控制程度对股价情绪效应的影响。研究发现,家族控制程度的增加会加剧上市公司股价的情绪效应,股票超额收益率对投资者情绪的波动更为敏感,而且公司规模越小,账面市值比越低,则其股价情绪效应越明显。股权制衡程度更高的公司,家族控制程度对其股价情绪效应的影响会降低,说明有效的治理结构会减缓股价情绪效应。公司主动性信息披露、代际传承进展,以及公司所处行业的市场竞争程度,均显著地负向调节家族控制程度对股价情绪效应的影响,减缓了收益率对情绪的敏感程度。通过改善这些变量的监管状况,可以有效缓解投资者情绪对家族控制公司股价的冲击,促进股票市场的平稳运行。     

试论社会治理背景下政府与市场关系的经济法规制

政府与市场的关系问题是经济法规制的基于问题，如何正确看待政府与市场在经济生态系统内各自的功能及作用，是经济法规制的核心问题。因为这样的认识直接导致了经济立法的体系构建与内容规则。经济法规制是国家实施经济治理与尊重市场调节的基本依据，也是施行经济法治与社会治理的根本前提。所以，从社会治理的背景下来讨论经济法规制的社会经济发展的制度条件及制度生成条件，有利于真正建立和完善经济法规制的体系和内容，从而使得经济法治生态化地融入社会治理的结构体系内，达到优化社会制度以促进经济发展的目的。     

基于协高阶矩视角的沪港股市风险传染分析

金融风险传染(financial risk contagion)不仅是资产配置和套期保值决策中应该考虑的一个重要因素,而且直接关系着一国乃至全球金融体系的安全与稳定.运用协高阶矩(协偏度、协波动率、协峰度等)风险传染判定方法,实证检验了沪港通实施前后上海和香港两地股票市场间的风险传染状况.研究结果表明,沪港通政策实施后,上海股市向香港股市的第一类协偏度(均值→波动率)、协波动率、经调整的相关系数、协峰度等的风险传染统计量值依次变大,同样依据风险传染统计量值的大小,香港股市对上海股市的风险传染途径依次为协四阶矩(协波动率、协峰度)、第一类协偏度和经调整的相关系数,协高阶矩成为沪港股市间双向风险传染的主要途径;因资本净流动数额和投资者教育等因素,上海股市对香港市场的风险传染效应更强.     

Global Innovation Networks – Organizations and People

Innovation is increasingly the outcome of global networks that connect geographically dispersed knowledge centers. The international business (IB) literature has developed a sophisticated understanding of the multinational enterprise (MNE) as an organization generates value by integrating knowledge across national borders. We advance this literature by making three key arguments. First we highlight the three megatrends that shape the strategy of the modern MNE: the disaggregation of the value chain into ever narrower activities, the migration of value to knowledge-intensive intangibles and the rise of huge emerging markets like China and India, whose domestic firms can grow to enormous size before venturing abroad. Second, we trace these three megatrends to falling spatial transaction costs, enabled in the main, by digitalization. Third, we draw on earlier research on the generic forms of global linkages, arguing that the IB literature has limited itself to organizational pipelines, while paying relatively little attention to personal relationships. The latter are particularly important in the genesis of both entrepreneurship and radical innovation, but are particularly sensitive to the anti-globalization policies. An environment where technology continues to reduce spatial transaction costs, while policy raises them, strengthens large MNEs at the expense of innovative international new ventures.     

Deliberative democracy in the real world,the contribution of the capability approach

ABSTRACT

Drawing on Amartya Sen’s writings, this article presents the capability approach to democracy and shows its relevance for the sociological reflection and research on democratic processes conceived as ways to convert individual preferences into collective norms or decisions. Two moments are key in this respect: the formation of individual preferences and their translation into collective norms in the course of public debates. The initial sections present Sen’s conception of democracy, particularly emphasizing its articulation with the notions of ‘positional objectivity’ and ‘conversion’. Then, this conception is compared with two other mechanisms that may be used to coordinate individual decisions or preferences, namely the market and idealistic views on deliberative democracy. The article emphasizes how the capability approach departs from these two conceptions with regard to the two key concepts of capacity to aspire and capability for voice. The final section shows how Sen’s notion of democracy may open up a new field for research, namely the sociological investigation of the informational (or knowledge) basis of democracy.     

Land markets and migration trends in Tanzania: A qualitative‐quantitative analysis

While migration has been found to enhance welfare across a range of settings, most of the literature focuses on rural‐to‐urban migrant flows. Using a unique dataset from north‐western Tanzania, this article probes an important, yet overlooked, link between land markets and rural‐to‐rural migration. A mixed‐methods approach is used to discern how these two forces are intertwined in village life. Results indicate that household decisions to migrate are particularly influenced by the ease of market‐based land access in their new communities. This suggests that labour mobility may be facilitated through the development of a well‐functioning land market.     

Female labor force participation in the US: How is immigration shaping recent trends?

Women entered the paid workforce in unprecedented numbers during the 20th century. Yet recent years have been witness to a creeping reversal in women's labor force participation. Why did the revolution stall? In response to debates over a “natural” limit to women's employment, or a cultural backlash against the dual-breadwinner household, we consider an alternative explanation, namely whether immigration has slowed the growth in female labor force participation. Using CPS data from 1998 to 2018, we show that the increase in the share of immigrants and children of immigrants in the population has reduced overall female labor force participation. However, immigration accounts for relatively little of the retreat from the labor force. Instead, the compositional effect of population change is overshadowed by behavioral shifts that affect both natives and immigrants. Lower participation rates among native-born women accounts for most of the overall decline. Despite persistent differences, we also find substantial convergence in the labor force behavior of native-born and foreign-born women, which bodes well for the long-term economic incorporation of immigrants and their children.     

Reinvigorating the social contract and strengthening social cohesion: Social protection responses to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of those who are inadequately covered by social protection in more and less developed countries alike, and has exacerbated the fragility of a social contract that was already under strain in many countries. A weak social contract in the context of an exceptional crisis poses a very real risk to social cohesion. Nevertheless, many States have reasserted themselves as the guarantor of rights by protecting public health and incomes. By sustaining these measures, economic recovery will be supported which will help minimize risks that may weaken social cohesion. However, this is a fast-moving, inherently unstable and protracted crisis. Social protection stands at a critical juncture. Decisive policy action will be required to strengthen social protection systems, including floors, as one of the cornerstones of a reinvigorated social contract.     

Care earnings in the United States and 24 European countries: The role of social policy and labour market institutions

Care occupations are gendered and remain relatively poorly paid, particularly in the United States. Prior research on the ‘care penalty’ primarily points to individual, relational, and market-valuation factors in explaining the relative earnings of care workers. This study integrates these explanations with a comparative institutional perspective. Using higher-quality data and methods than previous comparative research in the field—that is, harmonized micro-data from the Current Population Survey and EU-SILC from 2005 to 2016, country and year fixed effects models, and a counterfactual analysis—we find that national variance in labour market and welfare state institutions explains most of the difference in the relative earnings of reproductive care workers between the United States and European countries. Higher rates of collective bargaining coverage, stronger employment protection and welfare state spending contribute to higher relative earnings for reproductive care occupations, and lower relative earnings for high-status nurturant care occupations. Differences in the relative earnings of care workers appear to be mostly a construct of social policy and labour market institutions rather than individual, relational, and market-valuation factors.