WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state‐by‐state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. (JEL H0)     

VELOCITY FUTURES MARKETS: DOES THE FED NEED A STRUCTURAL MODEL?

Previous proposals suggesting monetary policy makers target private-sector forecasts have been shown to be problematic. As policy becomes more effective, private-sector forecasts become less informative. Under perfect stabilization private-sector forecasts provide no useful guidance to monetary policy makers about economic shocks. We illustrate a way around this circularity problem by creating a policy futures market linked to the ratio of the (realization of the) policy goal for next period and the current instrument setting. The implication is that extensive information gathering is unnecessary, weakening the argument that central banks need a structural model to conduct policy. (JEL E52, E44, E42 )     

AN ECONOMIC THEORY OF WORKAHOLICS AND ALCOHOLICS

This paper considers the role of alcohol in agency problems in order to provide an economic rationale for alcoholics and workaholics. In our model, alcohol reduces productivity, but also can make imbibers blurt private information. We show that in the optimal contract, low‐productivity workers are compelled to over‐indulge in alcohol, while high‐productivity workers overproduce output. Thus, workers are made into “alcoholics” and “workaholics” depending on their productivity. We conclude that excessive drinking (working) may be the result, not the cause, of low (high) productivity of workers. (JEL D82, VSOP)     

CONDITIONAL INFERENCE PROCEDURES FOR THE PARETO AND POWER FUNCTION DISTRIBUTIONS BASED ON TYPE-II RIGHT CENSORED SAMPLES

In this paper we consider conditional inference procedures for the Pareto and power function distributions. We develop procedures for obtaining confidence intervals for the location and scale parameters as well as upper and lower n probability tolerance intervals for a proportion g, given a Type-II right censored sample from the corresponding distribution. The intervals are exact, and are obtained by conditioning on the observed values of the ancillary statistics. Since, for each distribution, the procedures assume that a shape parameter x is known, a sensitivity analysis is also carried out to see how the procedures are affected by changes in x.     

The ‘Sociology’ and ‘Anthropology’ of Berthold von Regensburg*

Abstract This article deciphers the views of the German thirteenth century preacher Berthold von Regensburg about ‘social nature’ as they are demonstrated in his sermon ‘Of the five talents’. Berthold von Regensburg interprets the Gospel parable (Matthew, 25: 14–30) quite freely, in accordance with the social realities of his own time. The ‘talents’ given by God to the human being are their personalities, social vocations, or offices, life-time, wealth, and love to their neighbours. Such an interpretation of the sacral text in the sermon read in a big South German town seems to be a kind of reflection of the burghers’ mentality. The hypothesis finds its further confirmation in other sermons in which he enumerates the professional groups of that society; this analysis is clearly town-oriented. A fuller context for this text is provided in the author's own work especially ‘Questions of Philosophy’Voprosi Philosophii (Moskva, 1990)