A class of additive transformation models for recurrent gap times

Abstract

The gap time between recurrent events is often of primary interest in many fields such as medical studies, and in this article, we discuss regression analysis of the gap times arising from a general class of additive transformation models. For the problem, we propose two estimation procedures, the modified within-cluster resampling (MWCR) method and the weighted risk-set (WRS) method, and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically follow the normal distribution. In particular, the estimators have closed forms and can be easily determined, and the methods have the advantage of leaving the correlation among gap times arbitrary. A simulation study is conducted for assessing the finite sample performance of the presented methods and suggests that they work well in practical situations. Also the methods are applied to a set of real data from a chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) clinical trial.     

Writing resistance together

This piece of writing is a joint initiative by the participants in the Gender, Work and Organization writing workshop organized in Helsinki, Finland, in June 2019. This is a particular form of writing differently. We engage in collective writing and embody what it means to write resistance to established academic practices and conventions together. This is a form of emancipatory initiative where we care for each other as writers and as human beings. There are many author voices and we aim to keep the text open and dialogical. As such, this piece of writing is about suppressed thoughts and feelings that our collective picket line allows us to express. In order to maintain the open‐ended nature of the text, and perhaps also to retain some ‘dirtiness’ that is essential to writing, the article has not been language checked throughout by a native speaker of English.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

Uniform consistency rate of kNN regression estimation for functional time series data

In this paper, we investigate the k-nearest neighbours (kNN) estimation of nonparametric regression model for strong mixing functional time series data. More precisely, we establish the uniform almost complete convergence rate of the kNN estimator under some mild conditions. Furthermore, a simulation study and an empirical application to the real data analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) are carried out to illustrate the finite sample performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.     

产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统，建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策，分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少，风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润，零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少，零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。     

Benevolence-dominant,authoritarianism-dominant,and classical paternalistic leadership: Testing their relationships with subordinate performance

We propose a new typology of paternalistic leadership styles based on how leaders demonstrate authoritarianism and benevolence, the two essential components of this type of leadership. Benevolence-dominant paternalistic leadership refers to leaders' sole dependence on the use of benevolence without their strong assertion of authority, whereas authoritarianism-dominant paternalistic leadership is based mainly on authoritarianism itself; classical paternalistic leadership, which best fits early observations of paternalistic leaders, refers to the salient combination of both leadership components. We used two distinct samples and methods to test this typology and the association with subordinate performance. Across the two studies, a field investigation with Taiwanese military supervisor-subordinate dyads and a hypothetical scenario experiment with U.S. working adults, we found a positive relationship between classical paternalistic leadership and subordinate performance as strong as that between benevolence-dominant paternalistic leadership and performance. Our findings echo the phenomenon that paternalistic leaders tend to combine benevolence with authoritarianism to affect subordinate performance.     

自我建构对消费者促销方式偏好的影响

  形式多样的促销手段成为企业在激烈市场竞争中赢得胜利的重要方式。已有研究涉及的促销方式直接受益实体都是消费者自身，随着消费者社会责任意识的提高，直接受益实体为慈善机构的捐赠促销活动不断出现，然而很少有学者对不同受益实体的促销方式的效果进行比较。         基于信息框架理论和调节定向理论，以打折促销和捐赠促销为研究对象，运用分类变量中介检验和3阶交互效应方法，通过Spss软件中的Process插件进行Bootstrap中介效应分析，解释调节定向在不同自我建构消费者对两种促销方式偏好关系中的中介作用机制，并引入感知风险和感知稀缺两个变量，探究其在自我建构对消费者促销方式偏好影响中的调节作用。         研究结果表明，调节定向在自我建构与促销方式选择的关系中起中介作用，即拥有独立自我建构的消费者认为促进定向信息说服力更强，从而偏好打折促销方式；拥有依存自我建构的消费者认为防御定向信息说服力更强，从而偏好捐赠促销方式。当感知风险较高时，防御定向信息强化依存自我建构的消费者对捐赠促销方式的偏好；当感知风险较低时，促进定向信息强化独立自我建构的消费者对打折促销方式的偏好。当感知稀缺较高时，防御定向信息强化独立自我建构的消费者对打折促销方式的偏好；当感知稀缺较低时，促进定向信息强化依存自我建构的消费者对捐赠促销方式的偏好。         在理论上拓展了信息框架效应的相关研究，揭示了自我建构与调节定向作用关系的适用边界。通过检验不同自我建构消费者对调节定向相匹配的促销信息评价机制，证明促销活动中的匹配机制可使促销效果更佳。在实践上，为企业在不同消费情景下面对不同特点消费者制定相应的促销活动提供了策略指导，从而提升企业的销售利润。     

雄安新区科技企业创新能力评价研究

科技企业是实现科技创新的驱动者和科技成果转化的重要载体,也是推动研究开发的重要参与者,科学评价科技企业创新能力有助于企业自身不断发展壮大。在分析国内外新区科技企业创新驱动发展相关理论研究的基础上,从研发投入、研发基础、研发效益和现代科技四个角度,运用层次分析法构建科技企业创新能力评价系统,并通过实证分析说明评价系统的可靠性;根据评价系统测算出现阶段雄安新区科技企业创新能力,通过与成熟新区科技企业的比较,发现其短板和不足,力图为决策者科学合理评价、管理科技企业创新发展提供有益参考。     

新中国成立初期民族地区爱国卫生运动与国家治理效能研究

新中国成立后,党和国家高度重视民族地区的卫生工作,爱国卫生运动的开展不仅有效解决了当时民族地区的公共卫生危机,还促进了民族地区的社会发展。爱国卫生运动是中国国家治理初期探索的重要部分,这一探索在日后的实践中不断丰富,奠定了中国国家治理模式的基础。爱国卫生运动的成功之处,从短时期看,总体性动员能最大限度地调动资源,实现了快速应对的最优化,依靠党的组织系统,以情感性动员强化国民的共同体意识,树立国家的权威地位;从长时期看,爱国卫生运动成果的制度化促进了“以人为中心”的现代化,爱国卫生运动唤醒了少数民族群众的主体意识,少数民族积极参与到民族地区社会发展,国家逐步在民族地区建立现代科层制管理机构,进而推进民族地区的社会发展和国家治理体系建设。