An additive–multiplicative mean model for panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes

This paper discusses regression analysis of panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes. For the problem, a general mean model is presented that can allow both additive and multiplicative effects of covariates on the underlying point process. In addition, the proportional rates model and the accelerated failure time model are employed to describe possible covariate effects on the observation process and the dropout or follow‐up process, respectively. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equation‐based procedures are developed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a resampling approach is proposed for estimating a covariance matrix of the proposed estimator and a model checking procedure is also provided. Results from an extensive simulation study indicate that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations, and it is applied to a motivating set of real data.     

网络环境下的消费者态度转变——基于在线口碑信息框架交互作用的实验研究

关于在线口碑的影响问题,以往研究者已从不同的角度给出不同的解释.但是,他们的研究结论并不一致且忽视两个问题:消费者接收在线口碑之前的初始态度会影响对信息的过滤;产品销量并不等价于消费者态度.本研究尝试从态度改变的角度研究在线口碑如何影响消费者决策这一问题,考虑初始态度和认知需求的调节作用,将产品属性作为实验控制变量,归纳不同类型消费者的有效在线口碑信息框架类型.最后,提出一个消费者分类及其信息传播策略矩阵,为企业销售方的信息传播管理提供参考.主要结论有:自我强化型应定期进行正面要点信息沟通;理性说服型可进行正面要点信息改变初始期望,同时控制负面信息的扩散;摇摆不定型可根据产品属性采用不同的信息表述方式;消极排斥型应选择减少投入.     

罗兴亚问题对缅-孟关系和地区秩序的影响

罗兴亚问题是一个多世纪前英殖民者在亚洲埋下的诸多“民族问题”之一，也是孟加拉国与缅甸之间难解的“痼疾”。2017年8月以来，罗兴亚问题的再次爆发给相关国家造成巨大冲击。缅甸在打击罗兴亚暴力活动的同时，反对国际干涉，试图牢牢把握该问题解决进程中的主导权，而孟加拉国在政治、安全、经济和社会等不同层面基于自己的利益考量，寻求将罗兴亚人遣返缅甸，立场的对立使两国关系陷入僵局。而美国和印度介入罗兴亚问题则使地区秩序进一步复杂化，并在舆论和安全等领域影响中国的利益。2020年1月17日至18日，中国国家主席习近平应邀对缅甸进行国事访问，标志着中缅经济走廊从概念规划转入实质建设阶段，也给“罗兴亚问题”的解决带来新契机。     

Estimation of the additive hazards model with interval-censored data and missing covariates

The additive hazards model is one of the most commonly used regression models in the analysis of failure time data and many methods have been developed for its inference in various situations. However, no established estimation procedure exists when there are covariates with missing values and the observed responses are interval-censored; both types of complications arise in various settings including demographic, epidemiological, financial, medical and sociological studies. To address this deficiency, we propose several inverse probability weight-based and reweighting-based estimation procedures for the situation where covariate values are missing at random. The resulting estimators of regression model parameters are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The numerical results that we report from a simulation study suggest that the proposed methods work well in practical situations. An application to a childhood cancer survival study is provided. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 499–517; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

商业模式创新的绩效评价体系演化研究——以海尔集团为例

企业绩效评价体系随着商业模式的不断变革而变化,需要设计与商业模式创新匹配的评价体系才能真实反映企业的绩效水平,从而有效识别企业核心能力和成功关键因素;企业需具备对外部环境变化的前瞻性,更关注由环境变化引起商业模式创新重大变革的潜在重要性指标。     

苏丹贝贾部落的历史演变与现状困境

贝贾部落的历史可追溯至4000年前,他们以畜牧业为主,生活在苏丹东部地区,其身份标识是托贝达维语、迪瓦卜体系与斯里夫制度。苏丹在土埃共管、英埃共管以及独立之后等历史时期,不同的统治者们给贝贾部落造成土地流失、赋税压榨、传统式微等多种消极影响。2006年《苏丹东部和平协定》签订后,占东部地区人口半数的贝贾部落处于新的困境当中,由此产生了潜在的分裂意识。当今贝贾部落及苏丹东部的隐性问题,其原因是各时代的历史痼疾积累与边缘化政策延续的结果。     

No Room for Respectability: Boundary Work in Interaction at a Shanghai Rental

This article examines the dramaturgical challenges of doing boundary work for a group of college women living with non‐college women at an overcrowded rental. To regulate tenant conduct and maintain their sense of self‐worth, the college women engaged in defensive othering and constructed their identity as “high‐quality” people on the basis of their characterization of their less‐educated roommates as “low‐quality” people. Their strategy of gaining self‐worth at their roommates' expense violated basic rules of social interaction that require participants to give face to gain face. This study shows that, in addition to weakening group solidarity and reproducing social inequalities, defensive othering also undermines subordinates' effort to gain self‐worth in the co‐presence of other subordinates. A video abstract is available at http://tinyurl.com/yath4o65     

双薪家庭的家务性别分工：经济依赖、性别观念或情感表达

基于２０１０年第三期中国妇女地位调查数据的分析显示，城镇家庭的家务劳动分工具有“女性为主，男性为辅”的特征。研究表明，经济依赖关系、工作时间、性别角色观念均显著地影响着两性的家务分工，但其影响机制存在差别。对于男性而言，经济上的独立与成就对于其家务劳动投入的影响最大，其次是工作时间与性别角色观念，这些要素均相对独立地发挥作用，男性家务劳动的承担不存在“性别表演”。对于女性而言，纯粹的经济独立（对配偶收入的依赖程度、本人的绝对收入状况等）并非其家务劳动投入的最好预测，性别角色观念也不独立地对家务劳动参与产生影响。部分女性的家务劳动在经济依赖与性别角色观念交互影响下存在着形态与效应各异的“性别表演”。这一特征揭示了两性在劳动力市场中的经济地位与社会文化期待交互影响的形塑作用。     

The Absolute Difference Law For Expectations

We revisit the addition law for expectations and present a sibling law: the absolute law for expectations. We show that these two laws and their corresponding laws for probabilities can be reconciled under a single framework. As an application, we use the absolute law for expectations to calculate the mean absolute deviation. Finally, we remark on a hidden point in a related article previously published on these pages; this will help readers to avoid a potential pitfall.