“四史”教育融入高校思政课教学的五维逻辑进路

历史照亮过去，历史启迪未来。以党史、新中国史、改革开放史、社会主义发展史为核心内容的“四史”教育，是以历史为基础的思想政治教育。从党史、新中国史、改革开放史、社会主义发展史中挖掘思想政治理论课教育资源，对高校传承红色基因、落实立德树人根本任务具有重要的指导意义。以庆祝中国共产党成立100周年为契机，将“四史”教育融入高校思想政治理论课教学，必须遵循相应的逻辑理路：树立正确党史观、坚定理想信念的价值追求是融入的逻辑立场；强化大历史观、理解党的伟大贡献是融入的逻辑方法；坚持内在统一性、把握“四史”教育的整体性逻辑是融入的基本前提；抓住侧重点、精准对接各门大学生思想政治理论课程是融入的逻辑核心；坚持实践逻辑、引导大学生从“四史”中汲取智慧和力量是融入的根本遵循。     

安大简《诗经》“侯六”“魏九”浅析

通过分析《毛诗·魏风》《唐风》诸篇的诗旨和安大简自身的特点,认为安大简《侯》《魏》两部分内并无“误置”现象。又从战国初期的历史背景出发,并结合诗旨、春秋战国时期的“用诗”特点,赞成安大简《魏》之所以抄写《毛诗·唐风》中的诗篇,当与战国时期魏国国力强盛、占有晋国故地相关。由于抄写《唐风》诗篇的部分被称为“魏”,因此,抄写《魏风》的部分就不能再称为“魏”,必须改题。从《毛诗》诸国风的命名逻辑看,“侯”极可能是地名。不过,若考虑到安大简的特点,“侯”为爵位也未尝不可。从安大简《侯》《魏》的特殊安排看,它无疑是一个改编本,其底本与《毛诗》应该非常接近。     

The Solidary Relationship’s Consequences for the Ebb and Flow of Activism: Collaborative Evidence from Life-History Interviews and Social Media Event Analysis,

Acting in solidarity with deprived others has become a central topic in social movement research. The explanations of solidarity activism or political altruism are few. However, social movement researchers have claimed that solidarity with out-of-group others is a by-product of in-group interaction. In contrast, we argue that out-group interaction with the deprived other and the formation of a solidary relationship is central to the ebb and flow of solidarity activism. We investigate the Danish refugee solidarity movement and show that the meeting with the deprived other 1) brings about an interaction order which makes an ethical demand on the activists to care for the other both within the bounds of the situations and in the future; 2) enacts and amplifies activists’ values and beliefs because the deprived other becomes an exemplar of the injustice and the need to help the broader group of people in the same fragile situation. We develop and test this theory drawing on 42 life-history interviews and a social media dataset containing a panel of 87,455 activists participating in refugee solidarity groups.     

A class of additive transformation models for recurrent gap times

Abstract

The gap time between recurrent events is often of primary interest in many fields such as medical studies, and in this article, we discuss regression analysis of the gap times arising from a general class of additive transformation models. For the problem, we propose two estimation procedures, the modified within-cluster resampling (MWCR) method and the weighted risk-set (WRS) method, and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically follow the normal distribution. In particular, the estimators have closed forms and can be easily determined, and the methods have the advantage of leaving the correlation among gap times arbitrary. A simulation study is conducted for assessing the finite sample performance of the presented methods and suggests that they work well in practical situations. Also the methods are applied to a set of real data from a chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) clinical trial.     

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post-Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter-Earthquake Heterogeneity

Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities.     

“后新儒学”对传统儒学实践观的省察

通过对牟宗三道德形而上哲学的反思,"后新儒学"认为当今儒学发展的关键在于其实践观的转变。传统的实践观内缩于心性修养和道德形而上的探求,主要偏向于道德的维度。"后新儒学"融摄马克思主义和船山哲学,提出以社会历史生活为总归的新的实践观,此种实践观旨在克服儒家传统实践观的缺陷,真正进入生活世界。     

Max‐infinitely divisible models and inference for spatial extremes

For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max‐stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay, and to estimate joint extremal probabilities beyond observed levels. We here develop a more flexible modeling framework based on the class of max‐infinitely divisible processes, which extend max‐stable processes while retaining dependence properties that are natural for maxima. We propose two parametric constructions for max‐infinitely divisible models, which relax the max‐stability property but remain close to some popular max‐stable models obtained as special cases. The first model considers maxima over a finite, random number of independent observations, while the second model generalizes the spectral representation of max‐stable processes. Inference is performed using a pairwise likelihood. We illustrate the benefits of our new modeling framework on Dutch wind gust maxima calculated over different time units. Results strongly suggest that our proposed models outperform other natural models, such as the Student‐t copula process and its max‐stable limit, even for large block sizes.     

诗与士人的精神世界:试以王维的生命史和编年诗为例的社会学探索

费孝通先生晚年倡导面向“精神世界”的社会学研究，不仅强调了社会学的人文性格，而且指明了回溯和整理传统思想资源以理解人心的意义。古代士人在仕隐之间的进退趋避是精神世界研究的重要课题，盛唐诗人王维可作为重要个案。本文运用“知人论世”的方法，以王维的生命史、编年诗及他与其他诗人的交往为线索，考察其如何在仕隐之间调适精神世界的矛盾冲突。王维通过人际和诗文往来形成的社会交游空间、自然山水空间和灵性佛理空间，构成一个融和自然与人文的“人生圜局”，以寻求精神世界在“入世有为”和“消极退避”之间的平衡，而其精神苦痛也可以从这个圜局的层级变动或缺失中探寻根源。本文认为，把握世风民情、生命史的再现以及理解和体会的功夫，是研究士人精神世界的重要门径。     

Spatial Risk Analysis of Power Systems Resilience During Extreme Events

The increased frequency of extreme events in recent years highlights the emerging need for the development of methods that could contribute to the mitigation of the impact of such events on critical infrastructures, as well as boost their resilience against them. This article proposes an online spatial risk analysis capable of providing an indication of the evolving risk of power systems regions subject to extreme events. A Severity Risk Index (SRI) with the support of real‐time monitoring assesses the impact of the extreme events on the power system resilience, with application to the effect of windstorms on transmission networks. The index considers the spatial and temporal evolution of the extreme event, system operating conditions, and the degraded system performance during the event. SRI is based on probabilistic risk by condensing the probability and impact of possible failure scenarios while the event is spatially moving across a power system. Due to the large number of possible failures during an extreme event, a scenario generation and reduction algorithm is applied in order to reduce the computation time. SRI provides the operator with a probabilistic assessment that could lead to effective resilience‐based decisions for risk mitigation. The IEEE 24‐bus Reliability Test System has been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed online risk analysis, which was embedded in a sequential Monte Carlo simulation for capturing the spatiotemporal effects of extreme events and evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

中国诗学中的事境说

事境是中国诗学独创的一个概念,但一直被抒情传统的意境说所遮蔽。事境说是宋代以来世俗化生活在诗学领域的一种反映。与“想味不尽”的意境不同,事境尚实宜近,是时间(事)空间化(境)审美范畴。从诗性生存的角度看,诗人创设事境就是为了使人摆脱日常之事的纷扰,在事的诗性世界里去感受和体验应然的生活,从而使人心灵得以净化,生活得以提升。深入发掘和研究事境,既有助于全面理解中国诗学的历史传统,也有助于当下诗歌与诗学多元鉴赏与建设。