An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy

What advice can be given to the policymaker to reduce the burden of public debt after a crisis? In this situation, the debt consolidation calls for fiscal surplus based on increases in taxes and/or reductions in public spending. This paper aims at answering to the above question. Specifically, it evaluates different policy options on the table using the estimated model of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM). Our main message is that plans aimed at reducing the public debt based on tax increases rather than expenditure reductions are more effective. Therefore, consolidation should be designed on the former.     

搞好"五个统筹"加快民族地区小康社会建设

党的十六大明确提出了全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,十六届三中全会提出的"五个统筹"是实现这一目标的重大举措.民族地区要按照"五个统筹"的要求,完善社会主义市场经济体制,加快小康社会建设,必须从国民经济的战略高度,研究和解决"三农"问题;立足优势互补,构筑独具特色的经济区和经济带;集中各民族的智慧和力量,加快生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明步伐;在更大范围、更广领域和更高层次上参与国际经济合作与竞争.这样民族地区实现全面小康社会就有了坚强的保障.     

明代政治生态与士大夫政治文化的双向路线

明代严苛、暴虐的政治生态,使得士大夫政治文化出现了与宋代不同的状况。以王阳明为代表的士大夫,认识到在这样的政治生态下无法实现"得君行道"的上行路线,开始转向"觉民行道"的下行路线,这既是王阳明思想的转变,也是明代士大夫政治文化的转变。在传统的皇权制度政治结构和政治理念没有根本性改变的情况下,士大夫们很难放弃"得君行道"的路线。王阳明之后,士大夫在民间从事讲学活动以求觉民行道的同时,并没有放弃"得君行道"的上行路线,其中的王龙溪和焦竑颇具有代表性。明代士大夫政治文化中"觉民行道"的下行路线与"得君行道"上行路线的并存,是明代士大夫适应惨烈的政治生态而被逼发出来的取向。     

Bayesian Design of Special Type of Double Sampling Plans for Compliance Testing

Bayesian acceptance sampling plans, which utilize prior information on the process variation, can be employed as an alternative to conventional types of plans for taking decisions on the disposition of submitted lots. A special type of double sampling inspection plans by attributes with small acceptance numbers using Bayesian methodology is presented in this paper emphasizing its significance over small acceptance number single sampling plans. The procedures for designing such sampling plans for specified degree of discrimination which would ensure protection to the producer and consumer are discussed with illustrations under the conditions for the application of gamma-Poisson distribution.     

A Design of Attributes Double Sampling Plans for Three-class Products

In this article, a new attributes double sampling plan for three-class products (ADSPTP) is presented, and the corresponding operating characteristic function is constructed based on the given procedure of performing ADSPTP. Average sample numbers (ASN) for complete inspection and curtailed inspection of the second sample are derived and the extreme point is discussed on the three-dimensional ASN surface. In addition, the differences arising from different parameters are studied. Sampling plans are designed by a nonlinear optimization model. Finally, numerical examples and discussions are given to illustrate the obtained results, and tables of the designed plans under various conditions are provided.     

Parent–child gender matching and child psychological adjustment after divorce

The present study aimed to determine whether a parent–child gender match would influence child psychological adjustment after divorce. Participants included 69 parents (36 mothers) in active family law litigation to resolve issues related to postdissolution of marriage or time-sharing matters. Participants provided demographic information and completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL; Achenbach, 1991 Achenbach, T. M. (1991). Manual for the child behavior checklist/4–18 and 1991 profile. Burlington, VT: Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont. [Google Scholar]) to assess their perceptions of their child’s internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Results demonstrated that internalizing and externalizing behaviors were not affected by whether children spent more time with the same gender parent, opposite gender parent, or split their time equally between both. Comparisons and contradictions between the results in this study and existing research are discussed, as well as practical implications.     

机关事业单位养老保险制度改革完善研究

机关事业单位养老保险改革是当前的热点问题.一些地方先后进行了试点改革,方案设计既具有共同点也存在较大差异,但各地改革方案都存在诸多问题.完善机关事业单位养老保险改革,应在明确改革目的的基础上选择合适的措施和方案.我国事业单位养老保险改革不能以降低退休职工待遇水平减轻财政压力为目标,而应以建立统一的职工基本养老保险制度为目标.《试点方案》有利于实现这一目标,但显著地降低了事业单位退休职工的待遇水平,必然遭遇改革的阻力.完善《试点方案》的关键是选择合适的职业年金计划并明确待遇水平.对于机关和全额拨款事业单位,应建立待遇确定型的职业年金,而对于自收自支的事业单位,则应建立缴费确定型的职业年金.同时,应完善相关配套改革.     

建筑施工现场安全事故应急预案构建

为了解决在建筑施工现场安全事故突发时,因应急救援方案不合理、应急救援不及时,造成生命财产的重大损失问题,运用实证分析法、数理统计法,分析中国建筑施工现场频发事故类型,构建施工现场安全事故应急预案模型。选取脚手架安全事故对应急预案模型做了一次应用,结果表明：该预案能够控制事故蔓延、减少安全事故所造成的损失,可操作性强,对降低生命财产损失、保障施工现场安全生产具有参考价值。     

Inference on a progressive type I interval-censored truncated normal distribution

In this paper, we consider the problem of making statistical inference for a truncated normal distribution under progressive type I interval censoring. We obtain maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters using the expectation-maximization algorithm and in sequel, we also compute corresponding midpoint estimates of parameters. Estimation based on the probability plot method is also considered. Asymptotic confidence intervals of unknown parameters are constructed based on the observed Fisher information matrix. We obtain Bayes estimators of parameters with respect to informative and non-informative prior distributions under squared error and linex loss functions. We compute these estimates using the importance sampling procedure. The highest posterior density intervals of unknown parameters are constructed as well. We present a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare the performance of proposed point and interval estimators. Analysis of a real data set is also performed for illustration purposes. Finally, inspection times and optimal censoring plans based on the expected Fisher information matrix are discussed.     

Making Strategic Communications Work to Prevent Elder Abuse

ABSTRACT

With more and more noise hitting the public, more tasks to accomplish, and limited resources, elder abuse prevention organizations must speak with one voice and act in solid partnership. This article touches on processes, systems, procedures, and resources necessary to develop strategic communications plans that are single in strategy and consistent in objectives and image. While the problem of elder abuse has been primarily covered in the academic and health professional press, this article focuses on the usage of mainstream marketing and communications principles to offer suggestions on how to achieve broad national awareness of the issues.