Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

赤峰籍“90后”大学毕业生就业地选择调查研究

本文通过调查问卷及访谈的方式,获取了赤峰籍90年代出生的大学毕业生就业地选择的相关信息,通过对信息数据的整理和分析,分析得出影响其选择的因素。最终提出具有吸引力的地区就业、创业政策方面的建议,引导赤峰籍大学毕业生转变就业观念,合理择业和就业。     

A Faith‐Based Advantage?

This study explored whether religiously affiliated nonprofit schools participating in Milwaukee's long‐standing school voucher program engage in more fundraising and perform better on academic indicators than nonsectarian nonprofit schools. The analysis of three years of organizational‐level voucher school data reveals that a higher percentage of religious affiliated schools engage in fundraising, and that religious schools affiliated with umbrella organizations have higher test score indicators than nonsectarian schools. The author concludes that the religious advantage is likely in part a result of the broader access to networks and resources available to religious schools associated with umbrella organizations like a Catholic archdiocese or Lutheran synod. The results are relevant to policymakers who are considering implementing a reinvented government approach to the provision of public goods, as well as leaders of nonprofit corporations who seek to maximize performance.     

Bayesian Estimation and Model Choice in Item Response Models

Item response models are essential tools for analyzing results from many educational and psychological tests. Such models are used to quantify the probability of correct response as a function of unobserved examinee ability and other parameters explaining the difficulty and the discriminatory power of the questions in the test. Some of these models also incorporate a threshold parameter for the probability of the correct response to account for the effect of guessing the correct answer in multiple choice type tests. In this article we consider fitting of such models using the Gibbs sampler. A data augmentation method to analyze a normal-ogive model incorporating a threshold guessing parameter is introduced and compared with a Metropolis-Hastings sampling method. The proposed method is an order of magnitude more efficient than the existing method. Another objective of this paper is to develop Bayesian model choice techniques for model discrimination. A predictive approach based on a variant of the Bayes factor is used and compared with another decision theoretic method which minimizes an expected loss function on the predictive space. A classical model choice technique based on a modified likelihood ratio test statistic is shown as one component of the second criterion. As a consequence the Bayesian methods proposed in this paper are contrasted with the classical approach based on the likelihood ratio test. Several examples are given to illustrate the methods.     

Prospects for Examining Perceived Choice and Control Among Older Adults Living With Family

This review aims to advance the field of aging research by examining coresidence with family, race, and other characteristics as potential determinants of choice and control in older adults. Living with family likely impacts perceived choice and control, as household members often work together to make decisions about care. Race may also influence choice and control, as an accumulation of challenges and opportunities create unique life experiences. This review considers human agency in its examination of choice and control. Suggestions for future research will be discussed.     

The effects of information form and domain-specific knowledge on choice deferral

Three studies examined the effect of information form on choice deferral in consumer choice and explored the moderating role of knowledge about the product domain. Two theoretical approaches were contrasted: (1) The process approach predicting that choice deferral varies as a function of information form, and (2) the communication approach predicting an interaction of information form and domain-specific knowledge. Participants were presented with different laptops described in an absolute (e.g. ‘300 GB hard disc’), evaluative-numerical (e.g. ‘hard disc with 30 out of 100 points in an expert rating’) or evaluative-verbal (e.g. ‘bad hard disc’) information form, and they could choose to buy one of the laptops or defer. Domain-specific knowledge was also assessed. In Study 1, evaluative-numerical and evaluative-verbal values led to more deferral in people with high domain-specific knowledge. The pattern for evaluative-numerical and evaluative-verbal values was replicated for a different information organization in Study 2. Study 3 showed that absolute values led to more deferral the less knowledgeable participants were and demonstrated that domain-specific knowledge and deferral were unrelated when absolute and evaluative-verbal values were presented in combination. In sum, the results support the communication approach and have methodological implications for decision research and theoretical implications for understanding choice deferral in real-life decisions.     

论英文写作中的词汇选用

词汇是语言的基本材料。在一篇英文写作中,词汇的选择是否恰到好处,将直接影响到句子、段落的优劣乃至全篇文章的质量。因此,构建写作大厦第一加工厂的写作材料,就是选用准确达意、言简意赅、形象生动的词汇。     

农村公共服务的自主供给困境及其治理路径

作为最原始的供给模式,农村公共服务的自主供给是指村社居民承担成本、主动参与到公共物品或服务生产提供的过程,表现为家庭自我供给、村民团队供给和村庄集体供给等。虽然其对政府、市场和志愿供给的补充有效缓解了农村公共服务供给匮乏的困局,但理性选择框架下的利益博弈和村社道德缺失、政府角色缺位等限制了自主供给作用的进一步发挥,存在资源浪费、供给不足、合作失败等困境。重塑乡村社会资本、完善服务供给机制、重新定位政府角色等成为可能的路径依赖。     

全球化背景中跨国公司的语言策略研究

全球化打破了传统地域对社会文化结构的限制,使人们对现实生活中的物象产生了新的认识,无疑也让人们对跨国公司及国际商务英语产生了新的深刻的认识。跨国公司有怎样的语言认识、选择怎样的语言对其经营文化起着重要作用,进而会影响到其商业的成果,所以跨国公司的语言策略对跨国公司的发展同样是一个不可忽视的问题。     

米尔顿·弗里德曼论教育自由选择思想述评

教育可以产业化和事业化。弗里德曼反对政府对教育市场的干预,主张消费者对教育的自由选择。针对美国教育事业的弊端,他提出了一些具有借鉴意义的办法。但仅从经济自由主义的视角单一地追求经济效率并不一定能从根本上解决教育问题。