The sovereign crisis and Italy’s potential output

We evaluate the effects of the European sovereign crisis on Italian potential output (natural output, in the absence of nominal rigidities) by simulating a New Keynesian model. Our results are as follows. First, the 2011–2013 recession subtracted 1.6 percentage points from potential output growth and widened the output gap. Second, the 2013 reforms limited the reduction in output capacity to 1.4 points and enhanced long-run growth by 3. Third, once a balanced budget is achieved in the medium term, reductions in either labor or capital income taxes would boost potential output growth by 0.2 points per year.     

互联网深化、信息不确定性与企业出口平稳性

互联网作为信息搜寻和传播的重要渠道,有利于缓解国际市场不确定性对企业出口决策的影响,从而有助于稳定企业出口预期,保障出口企业的持续生存。本文首先基于Fernandes 和 Tang(2014)的研究框架将互联网深化程度和出口集聚同时纳入到异质性贸易企业模型,在剥离出口集聚对企业出口行为影响的基础上,从理论视角揭示了互联网深化程度提高影响企业出口行为特别是出口持续生存的内在机理与方向。研究发现,不同于出口集聚会同时影响企业的需求冲击和成本冲击,互联网深化带来的信息溢出效应会通过贝叶斯法则(Bayesian Rule)使得企业修正其对国际市场不确定性的预期,提高其对目的国市场成本冲击的估计精度,从而在互联网深化程度较高的城市,企业进入出口市场的临界生产率较低,有利于其出口参与度和出口稳定性的提高。然而互联网深化程度提高不影响企业在目的国市场产品出口的集约边际。本文使用2000-2013 年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和中国城市统计年鉴数据库的匹配数据从企业-目的国-产品层面实证检验了本文的理论命题。研究表明,我国政府应充分发挥互联网发展降低信息不确定性的微观机制,以推动外贸的平稳增长。     

生产性服务资源环节错配对高技术产品出口的影响分析

本文以修正Antràs et al（2012）模型为切入点，首次构建了生产性服务资源环节错配的测度方法，进而以WIOD数据库中发展中国家为样本首次细致分析了生产性服务资源环节错配对高技术产品出口的作用机理。研究发现：首先生产性服务资源环节错配系数对发展中国家高技术产品出口的作用力呈现倒U型，生产性服务资源环节错配不利于发展中国家高技术产品的出口，这一结论在分位数回归、控制内生性、分时间段和分产业等条件下依然稳健；其次中国生产性服务资源环节错配系数在所有样本国中最高，中国生产性服务资源过于偏向上游原料环节导致了上述现象的出现，这使得中国生产性服务资源处于“偏离最优值较远的低效扭曲使用”状态；最后高等教育、企业经营环境和经济效率均对高技术产品出口具有较为显著的促进效应，而“资源诅咒”使得丰裕的资源禀赋对高技术产品出口表现出一定的负效应，空间型贸易地理优势和契约型贸易地理优势均有助于高技术产品的出口，金融危机则对高技术产品出口产生了较为显著的负向冲击。     

出口产品质量与技能溢价：理论机制及中国证据

本文基于出口产品“质”的视角，理论阐释并实证检验出口产品质量对技能溢价的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：出口产品质量提高显著提升了劳动力技能溢价，这种提升效应在高技术行业更为明显；出口产品质量升级主要通过增加对高技能劳动力相对需求、改善企业利润和绩效等机制提升技能溢价，但出口产品质量影响技能溢价的产品价格机制未得到验证；技能溢价与高技能劳动力供给之间呈倒“U”型关系。因此，为防止出口产品质量升级加剧技能工资不平等，需要采取加强人力资本投资、增加高素质劳动力供给、完善与高质量外贸发展相适应的相对公平的收入分配政策等措施。     

重点产业政策对出口再分配的影响

基于2000-2013年海关数据与各省份五年规划数据,本文考察了重点产业政策对出口再分配的影响机制。研究发现,政府对特定行业的支持会引致产品维度不同类型企业间的出口再分配;产品市场获得支持会吸引潜在出口商参与出口、争夺市场份额,也会吸引在位出口商将部分业务转移到获得政策支持的行业、进行业务试探;同时,市场竞争的加剧也会加速淘汰竞争力较差的中小企业,促进产品维度新旧企业的更新换代。进一步,本文通过对比不同类型企业的出口动态,考察了重点产业政策对企业出口平均单价与产品质量的影响,发现政府对特定行业的支持会降低出口市场的准入门槛,导致更多的低价低质企业进入市场。可见,适度的政策支持有助于产品市场内企业的更新换代,激发市场活力;但政策的制定必须兼顾企业更新换代过程中的质量攀升机制,才能充分发挥其对出口再分配的优化作用,推动对外贸易的可持续发展。     

Trade sophistication in developing countries: Does export destination matter?

We investigate whether exports to developed economies stimulate export sophistication (represented by UNCTAD’s index of export similarity) in developing countries. Results from fixed-effects estimations suggest that exporting to developed economies enhances the sophistication of exports in the exporting country but there are diminishing returns to this effect. We also find non-linear effects from FDI and income on export sophistication with the effect of income exhibiting diminishing returns which suggests that the gains from exporting to developed economies are higher for lower-income countries; i.e., as income increases, the gains taper off. We discuss the policy implications of these results.     

Diaspora Ownership and Homeland Firms' Internationalization

Although the contribution of diaspora to international business is becoming more evident, little is known about the channels used by individual firms to benefit from diaspora. In this paper, we propose equity ownership as a form of connection between the homeland firms and diasporans (i.e. diaspora members). Specifically, we draw on the literature on diaspora combined with an owners-as-resources perspective to theorize about how diaspora owners can affect the homeland firm's internationalization. We suggest that the anticipated entry costs deriving from the liability of foreignness faced by homeland firms explain how the impact of diaspora owners varies depending on entry mode. Finally, we compare diaspora owners to other types of foreign owner which we argue have lower levels of motivation and ability to help homeland firms to internationalize, and contribute relatively less to their internationalization than diaspora owners. We test and confirm our predictions using data on 2608 domestically controlled Indian firms and their internationalization in 2006–2012.     

“一带一路”战略与中国对阿拉伯国家出口潜力分析

欧美的贸易保护主义盛起之时转变外贸地理方向成为我国外贸的一项重要工作，恰逢中国率先提出的“一带一路”战略规划了东亚开放的地区主义，处于“一带一路”交汇处的阿拉伯国家便成为了我们天然的经贸合作伙伴，从而对阿拉伯国家的外贸出口呈现出愈来愈强的重要性。本文基于贸易引力模型，通过中国对阿拉伯国家联盟中的20个国家2001年～2010年间的货物贸易出口数据，测算了同各国间的贸易潜力，基于中国与阿拉伯国家间存在的较大贸易潜力提出了几点结论与启示。     

Winnicott’s “Potential Space” and the Jewish Study Hall for social work students,faculty and practitioners

Abstract

The article addresses the potential interface and dialogue between academic and quasi-academic spaces. In particular, it examines the space of the Jewish Study Hall (Beit Midrash) as facilitative of the professional as well as personal development of social work students and practitioners in an Israeli college. We examine how Winnicott’s potential space concept contributes to understanding the Study Hall’s uniqueness as an extracurricular learning space within the School of Social Work. Twenty participants in the Beit Midrash for Judaism and Social Work took part in the study. Thematic analysis of transcribed sessions revealed three themes: (1) The Beit Midrash as a peaceful, safe and inclusive physical space; (2) The Beit Midrash as a space for playing out different realities; and (3) The Beit Midrash as contributing to social work training. Findings indicate that potential spaces that embrace the metaphysical world can help students engaged in religion and spirituality to complement and expand their academic training. We conclude by recommending that Winnicottian potential spaces that embrace the metaphysical world be integrated in social work programmes.     

吉林省对外贸易的影响因素与对策研究

近几年吉林省对外贸易发展迅速,但却存在着总量低、进出口不平衡、出口商品结构不尽优化、各市州发展不平衡、对外贸易伙伴相对集中和加工贸易发展缓慢等问题。解决这些问题,应加快市场经济体制的建设,为外贸发展提供健康的制度环境,并发挥比较优势,扶持具有比较优势的劳动密集型产业发展。同时优化出口产品结构,丰富出口产品品种,推进贸易市场多元化,提高出口产品质量,进而加快长吉图开发开放先导区建设。