从主权国家的兴衰看权力博弈形态的转型

传统的国际关系理论,无论是现实主义、自由主义、建构主义还是科学行为主义理论,都是把主权国家抽象成一个统一的国际关系行为体。这一行为主体有一致的利益,也自然要有一致的对外政策目标和手段。在20世纪,尤其是在两次世界大战和冷战期间,这一概念抽象是非常准确的。但冷战结束以后,尤其是进入21世纪以后,这一概念抽象逐渐与国际关系的现实相违背。一方面,国家综合实力并不能直接转化为具体领域的竞争优势;另一方面,很多国家,包括超级大国在内,其对外政策的主要阻力可能不是所谓的竞争对手,而是其国内不同的利益集团。这导致传统的国际关系理论,从假设到概念和推理层面,都已经无法解释和预测今天的世界,而权力小博弈理论可以为认识多元复杂互动博弈时代的国际关系提供一个新的解释框架。     

网络外部性对双渠道供应链信息分享的影响

研究了网络外部性对双渠道供应链信息分享的影响。分别建立了存在网络外部性和不存在网络外部性下的双渠道供应链模型，通过比较零售商信息分享和不分享下其与制造商的期望利润。研究发现：当未考虑产品的网络外部性时，零售商不与制造商分享其市场需求信息，与已有研究一致。当考虑了产品网络外部性且网络外部性较小时，零售商仍不与制造商分享市场需求信息；然而，当网络外部性较大时，零售商与制造商分享其市场需求信息。此外，零售商与制造商共享其市场需求信息有助于增加制造商和供应链利润。     

Statistical testing strategies for assessing treatment efficacy and marker accuracy in phase III trials

When a candidate predictive marker is available, but evidence on its predictive ability is not sufficiently reliable, all‐comers trials with marker stratification are frequently conducted. We propose a framework for planning and evaluating prospective testing strategies in confirmatory, phase III marker‐stratified clinical trials based on a natural assumption on heterogeneity of treatment effects across marker‐defined subpopulations, where weak rather than strong control is permitted for multiple population tests. For phase III marker‐stratified trials, it is expected that treatment efficacy is established in a particular patient population, possibly in a marker‐defined subpopulation, and that the marker accuracy is assessed when the marker is used to restrict the indication or labelling of the treatment to a marker‐based subpopulation, ie, assessment of the clinical validity of the marker. In this paper, we develop statistical testing strategies based on criteria that are explicitly designated to the marker assessment, including those examining treatment effects in marker‐negative patients. As existing and developed statistical testing strategies can assert treatment efficacy for either the overall patient population or the marker‐positive subpopulation, we also develop criteria for evaluating the operating characteristics of the statistical testing strategies based on the probabilities of asserting treatment efficacy across marker subpopulations. Numerical evaluations to compare the statistical testing strategies based on the developed criteria are provided.     

司法附属行政语境下的中国古代法官地位

“司法附属行政”是中国古代司法的一个重要特征。在这一背景下，中国古代法官地位就呈现出鲜明的附属性特征，这种特征同样体现在法院的地位和司法权的地位上，这也导致中国古代法官没有专门的职业保障制度，而这一切都深深地镶嵌在当时的人治大背景之中。通过与现代法官地位的比较，可以更加深切地感受到古今法官地位以至整个司法状况的巨大差异。中国现代法官地位在独立性方面相对于古代法官有了巨大改善，但仍然不尽如人意，还需要在今后的司法改革中进行反思和重点关注。     

不同冷链服务模式下生鲜农产品供应链决策

基于单物流服务商、单供应商和单零售商构成的生鲜农产品供应链，构建3种冷链服务模式：承诺模式、提前要求模式与延后要求模式，探讨不同冷链服务模式对定价与冷链服务水平、企业绩效的影响。研究发现：某种冷链服务模式是否有利于消减数量与质量损耗依赖于产品易腐性、冷链服务成本及其分担比例。供应链成员无法在承诺模式与提前要求模式下形成统一的模式偏好。当物流服务商承担的冷链服务成本比例较低时，相比于提前要求模式，供应商偏好承诺模式，否则，偏好提前要求模式。承诺模式比提前要求模式更有利于物流服务商，然而对于零售商，结果正好相反。数值实验表明，虽然供应链成员无法对冷链服务模式形成整体的一致性偏好，但仍可实现局部的一致性偏好。     

The 2015 welfare reform of the National Basic Livelihood Security System in South Korea: Effects on economic outcomes

In July 2015, South Korea’s National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS) was reformed for the purposes of eliminating welfare blind spots and reducing poverty. The reform is expected to affect the recipients’ economic behaviours and choices. In this study, we used changes in benefits and eligibility for the NBLSS under the customised benefit system to identify the effects of the change in the NBLSS on a proposed set of economic outcomes – income, labour supply, consumption, savings, poverty reduction. To estimate the effects, we used data from the 10th–12th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study and employed a difference‐in‐differences framework integrated with the propensity scores. We found that the NBLSS helps the poor to reduce financial and material hardships through income and consumption increments, but that it does not provide disincentives to the recipients from participating in the labour market or from saving.     

The impact of social power and influence on the implementation of innovation strategies: A case study of a UK mega infrastructure construction project

Influence plays a key role in reaching consensus among multiple actors involved in project-based decision-making processes. While prior literature devotes considerable attention to describing influence, little attention has been paid to influence at the individual level of the strategic project manager within the context of megaprojects. This research intended to fill this knowledge gap by identifying and describing the influence strategies that a strategic project manager applies when implementing innovation strategies on megaprojects. A qualitative case study was used to examine the complex social processes involved in a major UK capital investment programme. The findings underline a critical subset of influence strategies, notably higher-management support, inspirational appeal and bargaining. The study proposes a utilitarian structure of social power comprising selective, supportive and executory power bases.     

现代中国自由主义知识分子的 "叙拉古情结"——以胡适为中心

作为现代史上涉足政治最深的自由主义知识分子, "爱惜羽毛" 的胡适难掩其对政治的浓厚兴趣, 他的政治野心屡受打击, 却百折不挠. "四一二事变" 后, 在客居上海的三年半时间里, 胡适与政治权力之间历经从疏离、 接近、 受挫再到反抗、 放弃和妥协的心路历程. 胡适在上海期间与国民党的话语权冲突, 源于其逼仄的生存空间以及欧美宪政理念与军事强人政治的分歧, 体现了自由主义知识分子对精神自由和人格独立的追求, 是 "叙拉古" 母题下 "知识分子遇到政治" 的典型样本.     

产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统，建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策，分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少，风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润，零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少，零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。