基于csQCA的P2P网络借贷平台信用影响因素

针对P2P网络借贷平台成交量及数量减少的现象，运用网络爬虫技术等方法，获取了上市系、国资系、风投系、创业系4个类别共40个P2P网络借贷平台的实际数据；建立了基于品牌信用、交易信用、人气信用、服务信用4个维度的P2P网络借贷平台信用评估模型；运用csQCA方法对其平台信用影响因素进行构型分析。研究表明:交易信用中的信息透明度是影响P2P网络借贷平台信用的主要要素，其次是品牌信用中的合规程度；高品牌信用是上市系和创业系P2P网络借贷平台高信用值产生的必要条件；高交易信用是国资系P2P网络借贷平台高信用值产生的必要条件。政府和P2P网络借贷平台应重点关注品牌信用和交易信用的变化，为借款人和出借人营造良好的交易氛围。     

Explicit analytical solutions for ARL of CUSUM chart for a long-memory SARFIMA model

This paper aims to derive explicit analytical solutions for Average Run Length (ARL) of CUSUM chart for the SARFIMA(P,D,Q)_S process with exponential white noise. Measurement of performance was done with the ARL in terms of percentage error and CPU time. The results obtained from the explicit formulas were compared focusing on the performance using the numerical integral equation (NIE) method. Both methods had similarly excellent agreement with the percentage error at less than 0.25%. Meanwhile, the explicit formulas consumed less CPU time than the NIE method. It is clear that the explicit formulas are a good alternative in real applications.     

Impact of technology-intensive exports on GDP of Western Balkan Countries

This paper aims to determine, by means of regression analysis, which exported product groups, categorized according to their technological intensity, have the greatest effect on the movements in the volume of GDP p/c of the Western Balkan Countries (WBCs). The analysis, based on statistical-econometric methodology, includes 16 commodity groups per each WBC (Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Croatia; FYR Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia). The data were collected and presented in accordance with the HS4 system classification, which is also used for development of the ITC’s Trade Map. The results of the analysis show that those commodity groups produced by medium-low and low technology industries have the greatest effect on the change in the volume of GDP p/c in all WBCs in the period 2005–2015.     

Uncertainty Quantification in Case of Imperfect Models: A Non‐Bayesian Approach

The starting point in uncertainty quantification is a stochastic model, which is fitted to a technical system in a suitable way, and prediction of uncertainty is carried out within this stochastic model. In any application, such a model will not be perfect, so any uncertainty quantification from such a model has to take into account the inadequacy of the model. In this paper, we rigorously show how the observed data of the technical system can be used to build a conservative non‐asymptotic confidence interval on quantiles related to experiments with the technical system. The construction of this confidence interval is based on concentration inequalities and order statistics. An asymptotic bound on the length of this confidence interval is presented. Here we assume that engineers use more and more of their knowledge to build models with order of errors bounded by . The results are illustrated by applying the newly proposed approach to real and simulated data.     

A bivariate distribution with Lomax and geometric margins

We develop a stochastic model describing the joint distribution of $(X,N)$, where $N$ has a geometric distribution while $X$ is the sum of $N$ dependent, heavy-tail Pareto components. Models of this form arise in many applications, ranging from hydro-climatology to finance and insurance. We present fundamental properties of this vector, including marginal and conditional distributions, moments, representations, and parameter estimation. We also include an example from finance, illustrating modeling potential of this new bivariate distribution.     

Frequency domain bootstrap for ratio statistics under long-range dependence

A frequency domain bootstrap (FDB) is a common technique to apply Efron’s independent and identically distributed resampling technique (Efron, 1979) to periodogram ordinates – especially normalized periodogram ordinates – by using spectral density estimates. The FDB method is applicable to several classes of statistics, such as estimators of the normalized spectral mean, the autocorrelation (but not autocovariance), the normalized spectral density function, and Whittle parameters. While this FDB method has been extensively studied with respect to short-range dependent time processes, there is a dearth of research on its use with long-range dependent time processes. Therefore, we propose an FDB methodology for ratio statistics under long-range dependence, using semi- and nonparametric spectral density estimates as a normalizing factor. It is shown that the FDB approximation allows for valid distribution estimation for a broad class of stationary, long-range (or short-range) dependent linear processes, without any stringent assumptions on the distribution of the underlying process. The results of a large simulation study show that the FDB approximation using a semi- or nonparametric spectral density estimator is often robust for various values of a long-memory parameter reflecting magnitude of dependence. We apply the proposed procedure to two data examples.     

自由的陷阱：《A & P》中的资本主义文化矛盾

约翰·厄普代克的短篇小说《A & P》以艺术的手法,通过对普通民众、Sammy 和泳装少女在 A & P 商场中“自由”行为的描述,揭示了资本主义文化矛盾的本质,以及资本主义社会中,人们自由的丧失及对自由的追求,揭露了20世纪60年代美国社会所鼓吹的自由的本质,即自由的陷阱。     

后现象学思想解惑--唐·伊德技术哲学的实用主义与解释学维度

用胡塞尔先验现象学的立场来理解作为技术哲学的后现象学,这是对唐·伊德思想的一种误解。由于在悬置和变更等基本概念上与胡塞尔现象学出入甚大,后现象学只能算是一种修正主义的现象学;在哲学观和技术观上,后现象学更多地是汲取了杜威实用主义的观点;利科的解释学及对文本概念的广义理解,决定了后现象学必然是一种以探究人工物的意义为旨归的物的解释学。在理解伊德技术哲学时,实用主义和解释学是两个重要、但被忽略的维度。     

高校体育专业足球课能力教学模式的构建研究——以重庆文理学院为例

体育运动的生活化、社会化发展趋势对体育工作者的运动能力、训练能力、竞赛组织能力提出了更高的要求,需要体育工作者扮演教师、教练、竞赛组织、社会体育工作者等多重角色。为适应多元化社会需求培育新人才,探索体育专业足球课教学模式的改革,文章运用文献资料、逻辑推理等研究方法,结合当前足球课教学模式的优缺点,得出能力教学模式是足球课程改革的必然选择。足球课能力教学模式的构建应该以“一个中心、两个基本点、三大原则、四种教法”为途径,能力教学模式的构建可以调动学生的积极性、优化学生学习氛围、激发学生的创新精神、提高学生的综合素质。     

"天书降神"新议--北宋与契丹的文化竞争

宋真宗"天书降神"一事,不但为当时"不语怪力乱神"的儒者反对,亦为今世秉后见之明,崇尚"理性"、"科学"的学人严厉批判.但元儒修撰<宋史>,于此曾表"同情之理解".本文即以此为起点,以考据为基础,试图揭示"天书降神"背后的文化意蕴和实际效果,并提出与亨廷顿"文明冲突"(the clash of civilizations)不同的观念--"文化竞争"(the cultural struggle).