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1.
本文应用面板门槛模型,研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省(市、自治区)金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现,随着金融周期所处阶段的变化,金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应,主要体现为如下两点:首先,金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响,但从影响系数值的大小来看,处于膨胀期时最大,是后两者的2倍之多,处于平稳期时最小且并不显著;其次,分区域的稳健性检验表明,金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早,且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明,经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化,金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间,但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性,这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾,对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。 相似文献
2.
Massimo Franchi 《Econometric Reviews》2019,38(10):1176-1201
A generalization of the Granger and the Johansen Representation Theorems valid for any (possibly fractional) order of integration is presented. This Representation Theorem is based on inversion results that characterize the order of the pole and the coefficients of the Laurent series representation of the inverse of a matrix function around a singular point. Explicit expressions of the matrix coefficients of the (polynomial) cointegrating relations, of the Common Trends and of the Triangular representations are provided, either starting from the Moving Average or the Auto Regressive form. This contribution unifies different approaches in the literature and extends them to an arbitrary order of integration. The role of deterministic terms is discussed in detail. 相似文献
3.
《Journal of Policy Modeling》2020,42(3):583-596
We analyze the Russian restriction on chicken imports as an example of a non-tariff barrier (NTB). Cointegration test results support the hypothesis that the NTB limited trade. We calibrate an equilibrium market model to cointegration results to assess the market impact. The tariff equivalent of the Russian chicken NTB is estimated to be 30 − 40% depending on the representation of consumer demand. Removing the NTB decreases domestic production by 4–5% and domestic price by 27%–34%, while imports increase by 326–423 thousand tons annually in 2015–2019. 相似文献
4.
《Journal of Policy Modeling》2020,42(1):205-215
This paper explores the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in selected 25 OECD countries with annual data for 2005–2016 by considering different real interest rate regimes. A non-dynamic panel threshold model, introduced by Hansen (1999), is employed. The novelty of the empirical findings from the present study is that there exists a non-linear relationship between the budget deficit and the trade balance, which is driven by a critical threshold level in the real interest rates. The findings suggest that twin deficit hypothesis holds only under the low real interest rate regime, that is, rises in budget deficits lead to deteriorations in the trade balance when the real interest rate is below the threshold level. When the high real interest rate (i.e. above-the-threshold) regime is concerned, increasing budget deficits give rise to improvements in the trade balance, a finding consistent with the twin divergence hypothesis. Thus, the effect on the trade balance of an expansionary fiscal policy that worsens the budget balance reverses substantially depending on the threshold level of the real interest rates. The major policy implication of this paper is that the policy makers in the selected OECD countries should pay a greater attention to fiscal discipline in order to prevent the trade balance from worsening, because the majority of the countries fall into the low real interest rate regime over the recent years of the sample period (i.e. between 2010 and 2016). 相似文献
5.
《Journal of Policy Modeling》2020,42(6):1394-1407
6.
《Journal of Policy Modeling》2020,42(5):1146-1168
One of the main subjects, governments have been facing is fair distribution of income, and making effort to improve it. In this study, we evaluated the effects of economic (energy, water, ICT) and social (health, education) infrastructure expenses on income inequality in the Iranian provinces for the period of 2007–2016 by the panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) model. The results show that social and economic infrastructures improvements reduce income inequality. However, the magnitude of these effects varies. Investment on education, healthcare, communication technology, energy, and water infrastructures has the greatest impact on income inequality reduction, respectively. Therefore, in order to reduce inequality in deprived areas, combination and optimal allocation of economic and social infrastructures should be considered. 相似文献
7.
In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices. 相似文献
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Although apprenticeship training has been praised for its effectiveness in easing the transition of non-college-bound students from school to work, most studies rely on cross-country or cross-track comparisons. This study compares apprenticeship training students with non-apprentices within educational track in a relatively uncoordinated and decentralized institutional setting. Using a rich database and a unique set of observable individual-level characteristics as well as local labor market fixed effects to control for the potential selection bias, the results show that there are no significant differences in employment opportunities between apprentices and non-apprentices within just a year after graduation. This might be due to the failure of the Hungarian firms to enhance the skills of apprentices and thus increase their chances of entering the labor market compared to their school-trained peers. However, some immediate positive effect of apprenticeship training within sub-populations is apparent, which are likely to be the result of screening. 相似文献